Economic Research Forum (ERF)

December

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Unleashing the potential of Egyptian exports for sustainable development

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Growth in the Middle East and North Africa

November

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International and regional financial integration in MENA

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Rising influence: women’s empowerment within Arab households

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The evolution of labour supply in Egypt

October

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Poverty and plutonomy: measuring extreme bipolarisation in the Arab world

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The future of regionalism in the Arab world: a political economy view

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More jobs, better jobs and inclusive jobs: the promise of renewable energy

September

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Climate change threats and how the Arab countries should respond

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Exchange rate undervaluation: the impact on participation in world trade

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Financial development, corruption and informality in MENA

August

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Should Arab countries join the WTO’s agreement on government procurement?

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Economic roots of early marriage in Iran

July

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Natural disaster literacy in Iran: survey evidence from Tehran

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Sanctions and carbon emissions in Iran

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Can a free trade area in services boost trade within the Arab region?

June

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Making aid-for-trade more effective in the MENA region

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Conflict and debt in the Middle East and North Africa

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Reformed foreign ownership rules in UAE: the impact on business entry

May

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Arab regional cooperation in a fragmenting world

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Gender differences in business record-keeping and planning in Iraq

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Self-employment in MENA: the role of religiosity and personal values

April

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Happiness in the Arab world: should we be concerned?

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It’s too early to tell what happened to the Arab Spring

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The economics of Israeli war aims and strategies

March

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Sustaining entrepreneurship: lessons from Iran

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Financial constraints on small firms’ growth: pandemic lessons from Iran

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Manufacturing firms in Egypt: trade participation and outcomes for workers

February

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Food insecurity in Tunisia during and after the Covid-19 pandemic

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Do capital inflows cause industrialisation or de-industrialisation?

January

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Iran's globalisation and Saudi Arabia’s defence budget

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Making trade agreements more environmentally friendly in the MENA region

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Jordan: navigating through multiple crises

December

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Unemployment among young women in GCC countries

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Challenges of GCC investment in the energy transition

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The decline of social insurance in Egypt: directions for reform

November

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Balancing act: jobs and wages in MENA when crises hit

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The importance of budget support for progress on sustainable development

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Retooling development aid in the 21st century

October

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The India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor: an early assessment

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MENA trade patterns and the pursuit of growth

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Risk prevention and public compliance in MENA during the Covid-19 pandemic

September

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North Africa’s hydrogen mirage

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Debt clouds over the Middle East

August

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Fighting poverty: innovative policy lessons from the second Arab Multidimensional Poverty Report

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The human toll: Assessing the damage caused by revolution and war in Iran

July

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Reframing sustainable finance: lessons from Lebanon

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Insiders and outsiders: the political economy of Arab labour markets

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Supporting employment opportunities for women in Egypt’s ICT sector

June

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Geopolitical and economic tension in the 21st century: Not your grandfather’s cold war

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Altered destinies: the long-term effects of food insecurity in the MENA region

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Creating jobs: making Egypt’s economy work for everyone

May

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Public employment in Arab countries: A Reassessment

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How can the digital economy benefit everyone in the Arab world—and prevent the region from falling farther behind?

April

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Food security and child malnutrition in Africa

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Demographic pressures on the Egyptian labour market

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How the crisis in Ukraine affects Egypt’s vulnerable families and children

March

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What is the likely impact of the earthquakes on economic growth in Türkiye?

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Measuring poverty in Lebanon in the time of economic collapse

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Social protection in Jordan: towards collaborative implementation

February

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Drivers of educational inequality in Jordan during the pandemic

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Fostering decent job creation and formalising informality in MENA

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The multilateral financing paradox

January

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Public banks and development in Egypt

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How business survives under sanctions: the experience of Iranian firms

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What will it take to achieve an energy transition in MENA?

December

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Climate change: the impact on child malnutrition in the Nile basin

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The World Bank should become the 'IMF of climate'

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MENA’s unexpectedly low inflation

November

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How the Middle East can prepare for the coming economic storm

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Extending social protection to Tunisia’s informal workers

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Governance is the key development challenge for Arab countries

October

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The impact of Covid-19 on the labour market in Sudan

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Jobs and growth in North Africa during Covid-19

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The way forward for Egypt

September

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Digitalisation: what’s needed in business responses to Covid-19 in MENA

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No net zero without nature

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Inequalities in Jordan before and after the pandemic

August

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Corruption and internal conflict in Iran

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The true size of Africa and why it matters

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Employment in MENA during the pandemic: persistent inequality

July

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Weak pass-through of growth to household incomes in Arab countries

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Challenges of digitalisation in MENA and sub-Saharan Africa

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How foreign powers could break Lebanon's gridlock

June

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Reality check: forecasting MENA growth in times of uncertainty

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Economic interdependence and conflict management in MENA

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Air pollution and internal migration in Iran

May

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Preventing developing economy debt disasters

April

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Ukraine invasion: from oil sanctions to accelerating the energy transition

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Labour market transitions over the life cycle in Egypt across two decades

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What would a basic income mean for the Arab world?

March

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Wealth concentration rocketing in Arab countries after Covid-19

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Africa's coup wave

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What small states can learn from the Gulf – and vice versa

February

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Conflicts hindering development in the Arab region

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The impact of Covid-19 on labour markets in MENA

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Gender and economic vulnerability in Egypt’s labour market

January

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Mental health in Tunisia during the Covid-19 crisis

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It is time for Africa to focus on getting vaccines in arms

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Entrepreneurship and economic development in the MENA region

December

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Financial informality among formal firms: evidence from Egypt

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Better roads improve regional economies: evidence from Turkey

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Oil price shocks, protest and the shadow economy

November

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Accelerating Africa’s economic transformation

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Prospects for Sudan’s peace agreement in the shadow of the coup

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Getting the private sector to generate decent jobs in Arab countries

October

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Digital technology and inequality: the Impact on Arab countries

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Maternal education to curb female genital mutilation: evidence from Egypt

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Europe’s carbon pricing plans: potential effects on Turkey’s economy

September

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Building a knowledge economy in Syria: external and internal shocks

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Transnational governance of natural resources for the 21st century

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Contours of Middle East economics

August

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Physicians’ incentives and rising births by c-section: evidence from Iran

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In defence of regional development banks in the Covid-19 era

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Productivity, global value chains and cross-industry spillovers in Turkey

July

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The Lebanese tragedy: who is to blame?

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A looming oil price super cycle will likely be the last

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Tax policy for the post-Covid-19 era

June

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Dependency on natural resources and diversification of economies in MENA

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Harmonising rules of origin for the African continental free trade area

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When market contestability is not enough

May

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Oil rents and Iran’s middle class

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Improving access to finance and social cohesion in MENA

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Living with debt: how institutions can chart a path to recovery in MENA

April

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Learning about long-term consequences of armed conflict

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Labour market flexibility, unemployment and social protection

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Rising temperatures, melting ratings

March

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Shaping Africa’s post-Covid recovery: a new eBook

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E-governance for sustainable development in MENA countries

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Can preparedness for a health disaster change the game?

February

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After the Arab uprisings: reconstruction, peace and democratic change

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Multidimensional poverty in Algeria

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Cooperation and recovery in the Middle East and Central Asia

January

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How can the Biden administration help improve MENA’s economic prospects?

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A Sherman Act-like moment is needed in Africa and the Middle East

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Do coronavirus containment measures work? Worldwide evidence

December

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Covid-19, trust and rising economic challenges in the Arab world

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Bottom incomes and the measurement of poverty and inequality

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The Middle East and North Africa and Covid-19: gearing up for the long haul

November

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Taxation in MENA: composition, trends and policy options

October

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Tourism in MENA after Covid-19: from shock to structural transformation

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The impact of Covid-19 on the tourism sector in MENA

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Economic consequences of Covid-19: a counterfactual multi-country analysis

September

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Financing a comprehensive and equitable Covid-19 response

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Covid-19 aggravates Jordan’s acute youth employment challenges

August

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Public sector employment in MENA: a comparison with world indicators

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Fomenting intellectual revolution in the MENA region

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Lebanon’s dysfunctional political economy

July

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Why data transparency matters for MENA economies

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Seven questions about Covid-19 and its consequences

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The case for a solidarity tax to close the poverty gap in Arab countries

June

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Lebanon must learn from the Syrian disaster

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The dilemma of public debt in Lebanon

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Fiscal policy for Covid-19 and beyond

May

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Phone surveys alone will not address the Covid-19 data gap in MENA

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Economic challenges for the GCC countries after Covid-19

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Daily commuters in Egypt during the Covid-19 pandemic

April

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Transparency for a time of crisis and beyond

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Shelter from the Middle East’s perfect storm

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Covid-19 and oil prices: a dual shock for the Gulf Cooperation Council

March

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Policy for the Covid-19 crisis: survey of leading economists

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On Lebanon’s economic crisis and recourse to IMF assistance

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Dutch disease, developing oil-exporting countries and Iraq's exchange rate

February

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Highways to hell: road-building in Iraq has increased the violence

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Obstacles to doing business in Egypt

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Reforming Arab economies in times of distrust

January

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The two arrows for growth policy in MENA

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Cronyism reduces job creation in Lebanon

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Childhood stunting in Egypt: trends, causes and solutions

December

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Rethinking inequality in Arab countries: the latest research evidence

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Distrust fuels protests in the Middle East and North Africa

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Reinforcing the re-emergence of the “missing middle” in Egypt

November

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Repatriation: scenarios for conflict resolution and reconstruction

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Political settlement scenarios for Arab conflicts

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Refugees from the Syrian conflict: characteristics and prospects

October

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How Egyptian households cope with shocks: new evidence

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Has international migration reduced internal migration in Egypt?

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The Egyptian economy is still not creating good jobs

September

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Lessons in economics from Algeria’s victory in the Africa Cup of Nations

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Social security for young workers in Arab countries

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Competition laws: a key role for economic growth in MENA

August

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Formidable challenges facing the Middle East require a sea change in economic policies

June

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Lebanon’s 2019 austerity measures: enough to restore confidence?

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How to liberate Algeria’s economy

May

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The impact of hosting refugees on the labour market

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Economies of agglomeration and firm productivity in Egypt

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Unemployment in Tunisia: why it’s so high among women and youth

April

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New firms and economic geography in Turkey

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Raising Egypt’s minimum wage: the impact on inequality

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Self-selection of emigrants by cultural traits: MENA evidence

March

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Africa’s continental free trade area: a stepping-stone to integration?

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Transformation under radical uncertainty: the challenge for MENA

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Productive jobs: rebasing growth in the MENA region

February

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Religion as a catalyst for trade: evidence from Turkish exports

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Improving the economic policy debate in the MENA region

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On autocracy, democracy and populism: Tunisia and the wider Arab region

January

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Arab economic integration: trade and growth policy after the crises

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The African continental free trade area: an integration trilemma

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Post-conflict macroeconomic challenges: Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen

December

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Contagion vulnerability of MENA economies

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The future of work: race with – not against – the machine

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The role of state-business relations in employment growth

November

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State-business relations: the impact on firm performance and growth

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Economic performance under different types of Turkish governments

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Compulsory schooling in Turkey: a deterrent to teenage marriage and births

October

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Trade policy options to improve Palestine’s food security

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Chronic illness and the labour market in Arab countries

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Human capital and regional disparities in Turkey

September

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Business Cycles in Kuwait: A New Chronology

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Development Gains from Arab-African Trade Integration

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Escaping the middle-income trap: lessons from East Asia’s experience

August

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Inequality in the Middle East

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How the Middle East oil pricing system emerged in the 1940s

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Gaining competitiveness through trade credit: evidence from Turkey

July

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Technical and vocational education in Egypt: the missing link

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How the Middle East can escape the middle-income trap

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The bargaining power of disabled wives: evidence from Iraq

June

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A moonshot for MENA: laying the groundwork for a modern digital economy

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Iran: the nuclear deal, currency depreciation and inflation

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Measuring economic destruction in Syria from outer space

May

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Selling hope without reward: youth unemployment in Egypt

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Prospects for a closely integrated Euro-Arab Mediterranean region

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Syrian refugees in Jordan: educational enrolment and progress

April

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Attitudes towards gender equality in Arab countries

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Was public free mass education detrimental to Egypt’s human capital?

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Domestic violence reduced by better education: evidence from Turkey

March

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Is the Middle East the world’s most unequal region?

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Shifting commodity markets in a globalised world

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Improving market access for Jordanian exports to Europe

February

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Informality during political turmoil: evidence from the Arab Spring

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Investment climate and firms’ exports in Egypt: when politics matters

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Dilemmas of public policy in resource-rich countries

January

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Tunisia is back on a knife edge – here’s why

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Breaking Egypt’s unsocial contract

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Financial inclusion, financial stability and inequality

December

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Low social and political returns to education in the Arab world

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Replace discretion with rules to boost economic performance

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Brain gain from return migration: evidence from Egypt

November

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Vocational training fails the cost-benefit test: evidence from Turkey

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Arab oil exporters: coping with a new global oil order

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Did the Egyptian protests lead to change?

October

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Energy subsidy reform: progress and challenges

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Creating jobs: East Asian success and MENA failure

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Inequality in higher education: Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia

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EU climate policy: potential effects on the exports of Arab countries

The carbon border adjustment mechanism aims to ensure that Europe’s green objectives are not undermined by the relocation of production to parts of the world with less ambitious climate policies – but it could impose substantial costs on developing countries that export to the European Union. This column examines the potential impact on exporters in the Arab world – and outlines possible policy responses that could mitigate the economic damage.

Green hydrogen production and exports: could MENA countries lead the way?

The Arab region stands at the threshold of a transformative opportunity to become a global leader in green hydrogen production and exports. But as this column explains, achieving this potential will require substantial investments, robust policy frameworks and a commitment to technological innovation.

Financial development, corruption and informality in MENA

Reducing the extent of informality in the Middle East and North Africa would help to promote economic growth. This column reports evidence on how corruption and financial development influence the size of the informal economy in countries across the region. The efficiency of the financial sector in MENA economies reduces the corruption incentive for firms to seek to join and stay in the formal sector.

Freedom: the missing piece in analysis of multidimensional wellbeing

Political philosophy has long emphasised the importance of freedom in shaping a meaningful life, yet it is consistently overlooked in assessments of human wellbeing across multiple dimensions. This column focuses on the freedom to express opinions, noting that it is shaped by both formal laws and informal social dynamics, fluctuating with the changing cultural context, particularly in the age of social media. Data on public opinion in Arab countries over the past decade are revealing about how this key freedom is perceived.

Climate change threats and how the Arab countries should respond

The Arab region is highly vulnerable to extreme events caused by climate change. This column outlines the threats and explores what can be done to ward off disaster, not least moving away from the extraction of fossil fuels and taking advantage of the opportunities in renewable energy generation. This would both mitigate the potential for further environmental damage and act as a catalyst for more and better jobs, higher incomes and improved social outcomes.

Child stunting in Tunisia: an alarming rise

Child stunting in Tunisia seemed to have fallen significantly over the past two decades. But as this column reports, new analysis indicates that the positive trend has now gone dramatically into reverse. Indeed, the evidence is unequivocal: the nutritional health of the country’s youngest citizens is rapidly deteriorating and requires immediate and decisive action.

Exchange rate undervaluation: the impact on participation in world trade

Can currency undervaluation influence participation in world trade through global value chains (GVC)? This column reports new evidence on the positive impact of an undervalued real exchange rate on the involvement of a country’s firms in GVCs. Undervaluation acts as an economy-wide industrial policy, supporting the competitiveness of national exports in foreign markets vis-à-vis those of other countries.

New horizons for economic transformation in the GCC countries

The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have historically relied on hydrocarbons for economic growth. As this column explains ahead of a high-level ERF policy seminar in Dubai, emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, blockchain and robotics – what some call the fourth industrial revolution – present a unique opportunity for the region to reduce its dependence on oil and make the transition to a knowledge-based economy.

Shifting public trust in governments across the Arab world

The Arab Spring, which began over a decade ago, was driven by popular distrust in governments of the region. The column reports on how public trust has shifted since then, drawing on survey data collected soon after the uprising and ten years later. The findings reveal a dynamic and often fragile landscape of trust in Arab governments from the early 2010s to the early 2020s. Growing distrust across many countries should raise concerns about future political and social instability.

Egypt’s labour market: new survey data for evidence-based decision-making

As Egypt faces substantial social and economic shifts, understanding the labour market is crucial for designing policies that promote employment and inclusive economic growth. This column introduces the latest wave of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey, which provides fresh, nationally representative data that are vital for examining these dynamics.




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