Economic Research Forum (ERF)

April

Transparency for a time of crisis and beyond

In times of crisis like the current pandemic, citizens turn to their governments for action and reliable information – but in many countries of the Middle East and North Africa, the state has lost much of its credibility. This column summarises a new report on the region’s notable lack of transparency and how that relates to the challenges of low growth, macroeconomic fragility and stagnant labour markets.

Shelter from the Middle East’s perfect storm

The Covid-19 pandemic threatens every region in the world, none more so than the Middle East. This Project Syndicate column argues that with oil prices plummeting and public health costs poised to skyrocket, the Arab world must use this tragic occasion to forge a new cooperative regional order.

Covid-19 and oil prices: a dual shock for the Gulf Cooperation Council

The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council face a dual shock: from both the Covid-19 pandemic and the collapse in oil prices. This column argues that authorities should focus first on responding to the health emergency and the associated risk of economic depression. They should postpone fiscal consolidation linked to the persistent drop in oil prices until recovery from the pandemic is well underway.

Covid-19 and the global economy: this time is different

The economic crash landing caused by Covid-19 is unprecedented. But as this column argues, once the virus threat has abated, the speed of recovery could be almost as fast as the speed of deterioration given the pent-up demand, the massive policy support and the strength of fundamentals that many economies had before the crisis.

Killer lockdowns

Most developed countries have responded to the Covid-19 crisis by imposing lockdowns to control the spread of infections rather than taking the ‘herd immunity’ approach that some have advocated. This column argues that poor countries should not necessarily mimic this response: for them, the risks of the herd immunity approach can be dwarfed by the risks of starvation, destitution, instability and violence arising from a prolonged lockdown.

Will Covid-19 trigger a massive fall in FDI flows to the Arab region?

Flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Arab region by multinational enterprises are falling dramatically as a consequence of the global pandemic. This column reports on the likely scale of the negative impact and the implications for regional growth and development.

Solving both the short- and long-term Covid-19 crises

The global health and economic crisis compels us to act in the short term. But as this Brookings column argues, we also need to look at longer-term challenges. The 17 Sustainable Development Goals provide a pathway for us to ‘build back better’ after Covid-19.

How global trade tensions are affecting the Arab region

How are Arab countries likely to be affected by the trade wars instigated by the United States against China and the European Union? This column reports research findings on the potential winners and losers in the Arab region.

Economic impact of Covid-19 on Egypt’s tourism and remittances

As Covid-19 reaches everywhere, low- and middle-income countries are racing to respond to this massive and fast-moving challenge. This column, originally published by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), assesses the pandemic’s economic impacts for Egypt. Household income, especially for the poor, will be hard-hit, linked to disruptions in tourism and declining remittances. The authors provide initial policy insights for support to households and businesses.

Coping with a dual shock: Covid-19 and oil prices

Countries in the Middle East and North Africa face a dual shock from the Covid-19 pandemic and a collapse in oil prices. This column explores the policy options available to deal with such shocks, arguing that authorities should sequence and tailor their responses. MENA countries should first focus on responding to the health emergency and economic depression, postponing fiscal consolidation linked to the persistent drop in oil prices until the recovery from the pandemic is well underway.

Tackling Lebanon’s fiscal crisis: should food subsidies be eliminated?

Is elimination of food subsidies the right policy to address Lebanon's public finance crisis? This column reports research that uses information from consumer surveys to identify potential alternatives to such a policy. The evidence suggests that elimination of food subsidies is the worst possible option for policy-makers.

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EU climate policy: potential effects on the exports of Arab countries

The carbon border adjustment mechanism aims to ensure that Europe’s green objectives are not undermined by the relocation of production to parts of the world with less ambitious climate policies – but it could impose substantial costs on developing countries that export to the European Union. This column examines the potential impact on exporters in the Arab world – and outlines possible policy responses that could mitigate the economic damage.

Green hydrogen production and exports: could MENA countries lead the way?

The Arab region stands at the threshold of a transformative opportunity to become a global leader in green hydrogen production and exports. But as this column explains, achieving this potential will require substantial investments, robust policy frameworks and a commitment to technological innovation.

Financial development, corruption and informality in MENA

Reducing the extent of informality in the Middle East and North Africa would help to promote economic growth. This column reports evidence on how corruption and financial development influence the size of the informal economy in countries across the region. The efficiency of the financial sector in MENA economies reduces the corruption incentive for firms to seek to join and stay in the formal sector.

Freedom: the missing piece in analysis of multidimensional wellbeing

Political philosophy has long emphasised the importance of freedom in shaping a meaningful life, yet it is consistently overlooked in assessments of human wellbeing across multiple dimensions. This column focuses on the freedom to express opinions, noting that it is shaped by both formal laws and informal social dynamics, fluctuating with the changing cultural context, particularly in the age of social media. Data on public opinion in Arab countries over the past decade are revealing about how this key freedom is perceived.

Climate change threats and how the Arab countries should respond

The Arab region is highly vulnerable to extreme events caused by climate change. This column outlines the threats and explores what can be done to ward off disaster, not least moving away from the extraction of fossil fuels and taking advantage of the opportunities in renewable energy generation. This would both mitigate the potential for further environmental damage and act as a catalyst for more and better jobs, higher incomes and improved social outcomes.

Child stunting in Tunisia: an alarming rise

Child stunting in Tunisia seemed to have fallen significantly over the past two decades. But as this column reports, new analysis indicates that the positive trend has now gone dramatically into reverse. Indeed, the evidence is unequivocal: the nutritional health of the country’s youngest citizens is rapidly deteriorating and requires immediate and decisive action.

Exchange rate undervaluation: the impact on participation in world trade

Can currency undervaluation influence participation in world trade through global value chains (GVC)? This column reports new evidence on the positive impact of an undervalued real exchange rate on the involvement of a country’s firms in GVCs. Undervaluation acts as an economy-wide industrial policy, supporting the competitiveness of national exports in foreign markets vis-à-vis those of other countries.

New horizons for economic transformation in the GCC countries

The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have historically relied on hydrocarbons for economic growth. As this column explains ahead of a high-level ERF policy seminar in Dubai, emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, blockchain and robotics – what some call the fourth industrial revolution – present a unique opportunity for the region to reduce its dependence on oil and make the transition to a knowledge-based economy.

Shifting public trust in governments across the Arab world

The Arab Spring, which began over a decade ago, was driven by popular distrust in governments of the region. The column reports on how public trust has shifted since then, drawing on survey data collected soon after the uprising and ten years later. The findings reveal a dynamic and often fragile landscape of trust in Arab governments from the early 2010s to the early 2020s. Growing distrust across many countries should raise concerns about future political and social instability.

Egypt’s labour market: new survey data for evidence-based decision-making

As Egypt faces substantial social and economic shifts, understanding the labour market is crucial for designing policies that promote employment and inclusive economic growth. This column introduces the latest wave of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey, which provides fresh, nationally representative data that are vital for examining these dynamics.




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