Economic Research Forum (ERF)

April

Transparency for a time of crisis and beyond

In times of crisis like the current pandemic, citizens turn to their governments for action and reliable information – but in many countries of the Middle East and North Africa, the state has lost much of its credibility. This column summarises a new report on the region’s notable lack of transparency and how that relates to the challenges of low growth, macroeconomic fragility and stagnant labour markets.

Shelter from the Middle East’s perfect storm

The Covid-19 pandemic threatens every region in the world, none more so than the Middle East. This Project Syndicate column argues that with oil prices plummeting and public health costs poised to skyrocket, the Arab world must use this tragic occasion to forge a new cooperative regional order.

Covid-19 and oil prices: a dual shock for the Gulf Cooperation Council

The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council face a dual shock: from both the Covid-19 pandemic and the collapse in oil prices. This column argues that authorities should focus first on responding to the health emergency and the associated risk of economic depression. They should postpone fiscal consolidation linked to the persistent drop in oil prices until recovery from the pandemic is well underway.

Covid-19 and the global economy: this time is different

The economic crash landing caused by Covid-19 is unprecedented. But as this column argues, once the virus threat has abated, the speed of recovery could be almost as fast as the speed of deterioration given the pent-up demand, the massive policy support and the strength of fundamentals that many economies had before the crisis.

Killer lockdowns

Most developed countries have responded to the Covid-19 crisis by imposing lockdowns to control the spread of infections rather than taking the ‘herd immunity’ approach that some have advocated. This column argues that poor countries should not necessarily mimic this response: for them, the risks of the herd immunity approach can be dwarfed by the risks of starvation, destitution, instability and violence arising from a prolonged lockdown.

Will Covid-19 trigger a massive fall in FDI flows to the Arab region?

Flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the Arab region by multinational enterprises are falling dramatically as a consequence of the global pandemic. This column reports on the likely scale of the negative impact and the implications for regional growth and development.

Solving both the short- and long-term Covid-19 crises

The global health and economic crisis compels us to act in the short term. But as this Brookings column argues, we also need to look at longer-term challenges. The 17 Sustainable Development Goals provide a pathway for us to ‘build back better’ after Covid-19.

How global trade tensions are affecting the Arab region

How are Arab countries likely to be affected by the trade wars instigated by the United States against China and the European Union? This column reports research findings on the potential winners and losers in the Arab region.

Economic impact of Covid-19 on Egypt’s tourism and remittances

As Covid-19 reaches everywhere, low- and middle-income countries are racing to respond to this massive and fast-moving challenge. This column, originally published by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), assesses the pandemic’s economic impacts for Egypt. Household income, especially for the poor, will be hard-hit, linked to disruptions in tourism and declining remittances. The authors provide initial policy insights for support to households and businesses.

Coping with a dual shock: Covid-19 and oil prices

Countries in the Middle East and North Africa face a dual shock from the Covid-19 pandemic and a collapse in oil prices. This column explores the policy options available to deal with such shocks, arguing that authorities should sequence and tailor their responses. MENA countries should first focus on responding to the health emergency and economic depression, postponing fiscal consolidation linked to the persistent drop in oil prices until the recovery from the pandemic is well underway.

Tackling Lebanon’s fiscal crisis: should food subsidies be eliminated?

Is elimination of food subsidies the right policy to address Lebanon's public finance crisis? This column reports research that uses information from consumer surveys to identify potential alternatives to such a policy. The evidence suggests that elimination of food subsidies is the worst possible option for policy-makers.

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Trust in Lebanon’s public institutions: a challenge for the new leadership

Lebanon’s new leadership confronts daunting economic challenges amid geopolitical tensions across the wider region. As this column explains, understanding what has happened over the past decade to citizens’ trust in key public institutions – parliament, the government and the armed forces – will be a crucial part of the policy response.

Climate change: a growing threat to sustainable development in Tunisia

Tunisia’s vulnerability to extreme weather events is intensifying, placing immense pressure on vital sectors such as agriculture, energy and water resources, exacerbating inequalities and hindering social progress. This column explores the economic impacts of climate change on the country, its implications for achieving the sustainable development goals, and the urgent need for adaptive strategies and policy interventions.

Small businesses in the Great Lockdown: lessons for crisis management

Understanding big economic shocks like Covid-19 and how firms respond to them is crucial for mitigating their negative effects and accelerating the post-crisis recovery. This column reports evidence on how small and medium-sized enterprises in Tunisia’s formal business sector adapted to the pandemic and the lockdown – and draws policy lessons for when the next crisis hits.

Assessing Jordan’s progress on the sustainable development goals

Global, regional and national assessments of countries’ progress towards reaching the sustainable development goals do not always tell the same story. This column examines the case of Jordan, which is among the world’s leaders in statistical performance on the SDGs.

Qatarisation: playing the long game on workforce nationalisation

As national populations across the Gulf have grown and hydrocarbon reserves declined, most Gulf countries have sought to move to a more sustainable economic model underpinned by raising the share of citizens in the productive private sector. But, as this column explains, Qatar differs from its neighbours in several important ways that could render aggressive workforce nationalization policies counterproductive. In terms of such policies, the country should chart its own path.

The threat of cybercrime in MENA economies

The MENA region’s increasing access to digital information and internet usage has led to an explosion in e-commerce and widespread interest in cryptocurrencies. At the same time, cybercrime, which includes hacking, malware, online fraud and harassment, has spread across digital networks. This column outlines the challenges.

Economic consequences of the 2003 Bam earthquake in Iran

Over the decades, Iran has faced numerous devastating natural disasters, including the deadly 2003 Bam earthquake. This column reports evidence on the unexpected economic boost in Bam County and its neighbours after the disaster – the result of a variety of factors, including national and international aid, political mobilisation and the region’s cultural significance. Using data on the intensity of night-time lights in a geographical area, the research reveals how disaster recovery may lead to a surprising economic rebound.

Qatar’s pursuit of government excellence: promises and pitfalls

As Qatar seeks to make the transition from a hydrocarbon-based economy to a diversified, knowledge-based economy, ‘government excellence’ has been identified as a key strategic objective. This column reports what government effectiveness means in terms of delivery of public services, digitalisation of services, and control of corruption – and outlines the progress made to date on these development priorities and what the country needs to do to meet its targets.

The impact of climate change and resource scarcity on conflict in MENA

The interrelationships between climate change, food production, economic instability and violent conflict have become increasingly relevant in recent decades, with climate-induced economic shocks intensifying social and political tensions, particularly in resource-constrained regions like MENA. This column reports new evidence on the impact of climate change on economic and food production outcomes – and how economic stability, agricultural productivity and shared water resources affect conflict. While international aid, economic growth and food security reduce the likelihood of conflict, resource scarcity and shared water basins contribute to high risks of conflict.

Education and health in Tunisia: is human capital at risk?

Tunisia has made significant strides in enhancing the skills, knowledge and health of its population, all cornerstones of economic growth and social progress. This column examines the state of the country’s education and healthcare systems, identifying structural weaknesses that could jeopardise human capital and, by extension, progress towards achieving the sustainable development goals.




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