Economic Research Forum (ERF)

October

The India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor: an early assessment

The India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor represents an important shift in US and EU efforts to promote trade in the Middle East. Unlike past trade initiatives, the IMEC encompasses a broader coalition of regional and non-regional participants. It also makes a priority of infrastructure over trade policy as a means to expand inter- and intra-regional trade. While the IMEC has the potential to transform commerce on the Arabian Peninsula, international and domestic politics risk derailing its success. Western policy-makers have a strong incentive to invest their economic, political and diplomatic capital in helping to build an enduring and transformative IMEC.

MENA trade patterns and the pursuit of growth

Changing trade structures continue to shape national development paths, not least for the countries of Middle East and North Africa, whose futures depend closely on trends in globalisation. This column outlines empirical evidence for the region, which indicates the positive growth effects of participation in global value chains for the all sectors. The analysis also reveals considerable variation within the region in terms of types of trade flows, sectors and trade partners.

Risk prevention and public compliance in MENA during the Covid-19 pandemic

Public health measures introduced in early 2020 to curb the spread of Covid-19 played a critical role in mitigating the worst effects of the pandemic. This column highlights how to understand the effectiveness of these policies in MENA, and the importance of evaluating the relationship between risk perception and compliance. People’s risk perception and attitudes towards the disease varied over time and between countries, and assessing the drivers of these variations, and how they affected levels of compliance, is vital for understanding what happened and for building resilience to future crises in the region.

Sudan’s labour market: new data in turbulent times

With Sudan experiencing numerous economic and political shocks over the past decade, a lack of labour market and household data has made it difficult for policy-makers to make evidence-based decisions. This column presents new nationally representative survey data, which have been long anticipated and are now publicly available: the Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey 2022.

Sudan’s labour market in an era of shocks

After a decade of economic and political shocks, the newly available Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey of 2022 provides the first data on households and the labour market for over a decade. This column presents some of its key findings. The country continues to grapple with long-run labour market challenges, such as a high fertility rate, low school enrolment and limited labour force participation among women. After years of political turmoil, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic and recent internal conflict, it is vital that Sudanese policy-makers are able to make evidence-based decisions to help the country to prosper.

Most read

Untapped talent, unrealised growth: jobs and women in the MENAAP region

Only around one in five women of working age participate in the labour markets of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan. As this column explains, the region can no longer afford to leave half its human capital underused. Expanding women’s labour force participation is central to growth and resilience in the face of looming demographic change.

Closing the gender gap in political participation in MENA

Women across the Middle East and North Africa participate less than men in politics – not only in political parties and elections, but also in petitions, boycotts, protests and strikes. This column reports evidence from ten countries showing that differences in education, employment and political attitudes explain part of this disparity, yet a significant gender gap remains.

Labour demand and informal employment in Egypt’s manufacturing sector

Egypt’s manufacturing sector faces a dual challenge of weak job creation and persistent informality. Drawing on survey evidence on business behaviour and labour market dynamics, this column explains why job creation is limited and informal work remains such an integral part of how firms organise production. The generation of more formal jobs requires a comprehensive policy approach, one that goes beyond enforcement of labour regulations to reshape the economic environment in which firms and workers make decisions.

Challenges of conflict and industrial policy for development

How effective is industrial policy as a tool for long-term economic growth and development? Against the backdrop of the conflict currently engulfing the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAAP), a new report argues that while industrial policies are widely used across the region, they can only address market failures and foster growth when they are aligned with country capabilities, implemented with accountability and backed by capable institutions.




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