Economic Research Forum (ERF)

July

Technical and vocational education in Egypt: the missing link

Recent notable developments in Egypt’s educational system include an agreement between the government and private firms to enhance the provision of technical and vocational education (TVE). This column assesses the potential effectiveness of the initiative, and proposes ways to achieve a better match between the demand for and supply of skills in different sectors of the economy.

How the Middle East can escape the middle-income trap

The Middle East and North Africa urgently needs a new social contract focused on economically empowering the hundreds of millions of youth who are expected to join the labour market in the coming decades. This Project Syndicate column argues that the key to success will be technological adoption, adaptation and innovation, encouraged and facilitated by governments.

Asset inequality in Egypt, Ethiopia, Jordan and Tunisia

Measures of income or consumption alone provide an inadequate representation of living standards and economic inequality across households. This column reports evidence on the distribution of productive assets in three MENA countries plus Ethiopia – and the impact of that wealth on households’ present and future earnings.

The bargaining power of disabled wives: evidence from Iraq

The rate of labour force participation of women in MENA countries remains lower than in any other part of the world – and it is even lower for women with disabilities. This column reports evidence from Iraq of the impact of disability on the bargaining power of wives within their households.

Optimal asset allocation for sovereign wealth funds

How should oil-based sovereign wealth funds allocate their investment across different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds and real estate? This column analyses the optimal strategy in light of the need to hedge against adverse oil price shocks.

Financial systems in MENA: time to embrace digital technologies

The growing use of digital technologies in financial services provision holds promise for MENA countries to improve their financial systems and promote greater financial inclusion. This column explores the potential of such innovations as mobile money platforms and crowdfunding to help unleash the region’s economic potential.

Time to rethink inequality in Arab states

There are many gaps in our understanding of trends in both money metric inequality and multidimensional inequality in Arab states. This column previews a forthcoming report that will explore fundamental questions: why study inequality; with what theoretical approaches and measurement frameworks; and inequality between whom?

Subsidy reforms and social justice: lessons from Egypt

For institutional and historical reasons, countries of the Middle East and North Africa have relied mostly on consumption subsidies for reducing inequality. This column presents evidence on the distributional impact of recent subsidy reforms in Egypt.

Rethinking the macroeconomics of resource-rich countries

After years of high commodity prices, a new era of lower prices, especially for oil, will be challenging for resource-rich countries, which must cope with the decline in income and the potential widening of internal and external imbalances. This column summarises a recent eBook in which leading economists examine the shifting landscape in commodity markets and explore the exchange rate, monetary and fiscal policy options, as well as the role of finance, including sovereign wealth funds and diversification.

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Green hydrogen production and exports: could MENA countries lead the way?

The Arab region stands at the threshold of a transformative opportunity to become a global leader in green hydrogen production and exports. But as this column explains, achieving this potential will require substantial investments, robust policy frameworks and a commitment to technological innovation.

Freedom: the missing piece in analysis of multidimensional wellbeing

Political philosophy has long emphasised the importance of freedom in shaping a meaningful life, yet it is consistently overlooked in assessments of human wellbeing across multiple dimensions. This column focuses on the freedom to express opinions, noting that it is shaped by both formal laws and informal social dynamics, fluctuating with the changing cultural context, particularly in the age of social media. Data on public opinion in Arab countries over the past decade are revealing about how this key freedom is perceived.

Climate change threats and how the Arab countries should respond

The Arab region is highly vulnerable to extreme events caused by climate change. This column outlines the threats and explores what can be done to ward off disaster, not least moving away from the extraction of fossil fuels and taking advantage of the opportunities in renewable energy generation. This would both mitigate the potential for further environmental damage and act as a catalyst for more and better jobs, higher incomes and improved social outcomes.

Child stunting in Tunisia: an alarming rise

Child stunting in Tunisia seemed to have fallen significantly over the past two decades. But as this column reports, new analysis indicates that the positive trend has now gone dramatically into reverse. Indeed, the evidence is unequivocal: the nutritional health of the country’s youngest citizens is rapidly deteriorating and requires immediate and decisive action.

Exchange rate undervaluation: the impact on participation in world trade

Can currency undervaluation influence participation in world trade through global value chains (GVC)? This column reports new evidence on the positive impact of an undervalued real exchange rate on the involvement of a country’s firms in GVCs. Undervaluation acts as an economy-wide industrial policy, supporting the competitiveness of national exports in foreign markets vis-à-vis those of other countries.

New horizons for economic transformation in the GCC countries

The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have historically relied on hydrocarbons for economic growth. As this column explains ahead of a high-level ERF policy seminar in Dubai, emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, blockchain and robotics – what some call the fourth industrial revolution – present a unique opportunity for the region to reduce its dependence on oil and make the transition to a knowledge-based economy.

Egypt’s labour market: new survey data for evidence-based decision-making

As Egypt faces substantial social and economic shifts, understanding the labour market is crucial for designing policies that promote employment and inclusive economic growth. This column introduces the latest wave of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey, which provides fresh, nationally representative data that are vital for examining these dynamics.

Shifting public trust in governments across the Arab world

The Arab Spring, which began over a decade ago, was driven by popular distrust in governments of the region. The column reports on how public trust has shifted since then, drawing on survey data collected soon after the uprising and ten years later. The findings reveal a dynamic and often fragile landscape of trust in Arab governments from the early 2010s to the early 2020s. Growing distrust across many countries should raise concerns about future political and social instability.

Corruption in Iran: the role of oil rents

How do fluctuations in oil rents influence levels of corruption in Iran? This column reports the findings of new research, which examines the impact of increases in the country’s oil revenues on corruption, including the mechanisms through which the effects occur – higher inflation, greater public spending on the military and the weakness of democratic institutions.

More jobs, better jobs and inclusive jobs: the promise of renewable energy

Among the many economic and environmental challenges facing the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), two stand out: the need for jobs and the need to combat the threat of climate change by moving away from reliance on fossil fuels. As this column explains, embracing renewable energy technologies presents an opportunity for the region to diversify its economy, mitigate the possible negative impacts of digital technologies on existing jobs, reduce its carbon footprint and create significant levels of employment, particularly for women and the youth, across a variety of sectors.




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