Economic Research Forum (ERF)

June

A moonshot for MENA: laying the groundwork for a modern digital economy

A new economic reality is needed in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This column proposes a ‘moonshot’, which, like the US effort to land a man on the moon in the 1960s, can unite people behind a common goal and transform the ways in which governments, companies, international financial institutions and civil societies conduct business. It would transform MENA economies and help to ensure that millions of the region’s young people can find the good jobs they deserve.

Iran: the nuclear deal, currency depreciation and inflation

Iran’s currency has once again fallen against the dollar following the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal. This column explores the inflationary impact of speculative attacks on the rial, as well as the policy responses from the government and the central bank. Such episodes – and subsequent overshooting – have proven to be highly disruptive to the country, with lasting adverse social and economic effects.

Measuring economic destruction in Syria from outer space

How is Syria’s civil conflict affecting the economy? This column analyses data on night-light intensity measured by satellites to assess the extent of the destruction of economic activity across the country. Without a strong programme of economic rebuilding when the conflict finally ends, the return of approximately 5.6 million registered refugees to Syria will not happen any time soon.

Local winners and losers in Erdoğan’s Turkey

Throughout the 2000s, Turkey was portrayed as a model of social and economic success for other countries in the MENA region. Ahead of the country’s early presidential and parliamentary polls, this column reports research evidence on how the ruling Justice and Development Party has managed public resources and fostered local economic development since it took power in 2002. The government has played a substantial role in influencing local economic performance on a discretionary basis.

Liberalising road transport markets between Turkey and Europe

The routes that connect Turkey to its most important trading partners in Europe are governed by a system of road transport quotas, which has a significantly negative effect on the country’s exports. This column explores the challenges of liberalising the market for road freight transport services between Turkey and the European Union.

Poverty reduction efforts in Iran: the wrecking force of inflation

Iran’s universal cash transfer (UCT) programme plays an important role in fighting poverty. But as this column shows, its real value and impact on the country’s poorest people has diminished significantly as a result of rising prices. Over the five-year period since the UCT was first operating in 2011, inflation halved its original value.

The new normal in the global economy: challenges for MENA

ERF’s annual conference has become the premier regional event for economists of the Middle East. This column previews the 2018 conference, to be held in Cairo in July, where the main theme will be the challenges for the region of the likelihood of a relatively sustained period of low oil prices as well as disruptive cyclical movements around the long-term price trend – the so-called ‘new normal’ in the global economy. Special sessions will also discuss the challenges of inequality; climate change and environmental damage; and solidarity, economy and social justice.

Jordan’s labour market: new inputs for informed policy-making

The labour market in Jordan has deteriorated since 2010: informality and irregular employment have increased; the recent social security reform has had limited impact; and large shares of young people are neither working nor in school. This column reports new high-quality survey data collected by ERF, analysis of which is providing insights into the causes of the deterioration and potential policy responses. Jordanian researchers and policy-makers are now in a better position to ask informed questions and develop better policy.

Most read

Global value chains and sustainable development

What is the role of exchange rate undervaluation in promoting participation in global value chains by firms in developing countries? What is the impact of the stringency of national environmental regulations on firms’ GVC participation? And how do firms’ political connections affect their participation in GVCs? These questions will be explored for the MENA region at a special session of the ERF annual conference, which takes place in Cairo in April 2025.

Adoption of decentralised solar energy: lessons from Palestinian households

The experience of Palestinian households offers a compelling case study of behavioural adaptation to energy poverty via solar water heater adoption. This column highlights the key barriers to solar energy adoption in terms of both the socio-economic status and dwellings of potential users. Policy-makers need to address these barriers to ensure a just and equitable transition, particularly for households in conflict-affected areas across the MENA region.

Migration, human capital and labour markets in MENA

Migration is a longstanding and integral part of the MENA region’s economic and social fabric, with profound implications for labour markets and human capital development. To harness the potential of migration for promoting economic and social development, policy-makers must aim to deliver mutual benefits for origin countries, host countries and migrants. Such a triple-win strategy requires better data, investment in return migration, skill partnerships, reduced remittance costs and sustained support for host countries.

Shifting gears: how the private sector can be an engine of growth in MENA

Businesses are a key source of productivity growth, innovation and jobs. But in the Middle East and North Africa, the private sector is not dynamic and the region has a long history of low growth. This column summarises a new report explaining how a brighter future for MENA’s private sector is within reach if governments rethink their role and firms harness talent effectively.

Building net-zero futures: Asian lessons for MENA’s construction sector

Three big economies in Asia are achieving carbon neutrality in construction. This column draws lessons from Japan, Taiwan and Thailand – and explains why, given the vast solar potential and growing focus on environmental, social and governance matters in the Middle East and North Africa, governments in the region must adopt similarly ambitious policies and partnerships.

Losing the key to joy: how oil rents undermine patience and economic growth

How does reliance on oil revenues shape economic behaviour worldwide? This column reports new research showing that oil rents weaken governance, eroding patience – a key driver of economic growth and, according to the 13th century Persian poet Rumi, ‘the key to joy’. Policy measures to counter the damage include enhancing transparency in oil revenue management, strengthening independent oversight institutions and ensuring that sovereign wealth funds have robust rules of governance.

Freedom, agency and material conditions: human development in MENA

Conventional approaches to measuring human development, which are primarily centred on income, health and education, provide an incomplete assessment of people’s opportunities to improve their lives. As this column explains, it is essential to understand how institutional and social environments influence individuals’ agency over their development outcomes. Analysis of the diverse recent experiences of Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia illustrates how such an approach can inform policy-making.

Artificial intelligence and the future of employment in MENA

Artificial intelligence offers opportunities for boosting productivity and innovation. But it also poses substantial threats to traditional employment structures, particularly in economies like those in the Middle East and North Africa that are reliant on low-skill or routine labour. This column explores how AI is likely to affect employment across the region and proposes policy directions for governments to harness AI for inclusive and sustainable economic growth.

Fiscal limits and debt sustainability in MENA economies

Public debt is piling up across the Middle East and North Africa after years of political upheavals, economic shocks and the Covid-19 pandemic. With fiscal space shrinking, governments are under pressure to act. This column explains why for many countries in the region, the room for manoeuvre on the public finances may be smaller than policy-makers think. Urgent action is needed to restore debt sustainability.

Market integration in the Middle East and the Balkans, 1560-1914

Trade has re-emerged as a central issue in global policy debates, as governments debate not only the costs and benefits of trade, but also the underlying determinants of market integration. To inform the discussion, this column reports new research evidence on the experiences of the former Ottoman territories in the Middle East and the Balkans over nearly four centuries, tracing the evolution, drivers and consequences of trade integration across these regions.




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