Economic Research Forum (ERF)

It is time for Africa to focus on getting vaccines in arms

754
Rates of vaccination against Covid-19 are still disappointingly low in Africa. This column, originally published at Al Jazeera, argues that with supply issues slowly being resolved, the continent’s priority should shift to addressing logistical problems and fighting vaccine hesitancy.

In a nutshell

With vaccine supplies likely to outstrip global demand soon, African states need to focus on overcoming local bottlenecks, such as poor logistics, lack of capacity to administer doses and vaccine hesitancy, which could hinder future vaccination drives.

With the support of development institutions, African leaders should expand and improve their cold chain infrastructures, and invest in initiatives to ensure doses reach segments of the population in remote areas.

To address vaccine hesitancy, politicians should partner with popular public figures – such as football players, music stars and social media influencers – to encourage Africans to get vaccinated.

Rates of vaccination against Covid-19 are still disappointingly low in Africa, with just around 8% of the continent’s population fully vaccinated against the disease. And this average masks large differences between countries. Mauritius and Morocco, for example, already fully vaccinated 72% and 62% of their populations respectively; but in countries like Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, vaccination rates remain well under 1%.

Since the emergence of the more transmissible Omicron variant, the number of Covid-19 infections is on the rise, but the number of deaths still remains relatively low on the continent. Nevertheless, given the known weaknesses of African health sectors, including the limited number of intensive care beds, there are fears that if the Omicron variant continues its rapid spread – or worse, a more transmissible and deadly variant emerges – Africa could find itself in the middle of an unprecedented public health crisis. Thus, front-loading vaccination appears to be the only available option to prevent a new disaster on the continent.

Unfortunately, due to several interconnected factors, Africa is not expected to reach the global target of 70% vaccination set for mid-2022 until the end of 2024, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Beyond its consequences for the population of the continent, that miss is likely to have large and negative spillover effects on the rest of the world in terms of the emergence of new, potentially more harmful variants.

The main reason behind low vaccination rates in Africa has been the low supply. Indeed, high-income countries have been hoarding vaccines, most recently for third ‘booster’ doses, leaving low-income countries, including many in Africa, unable to access enough doses even for their most vulnerable populations and frontline health workers.

The limited shelf life of vaccines – three to six months on average – also had an effect on vaccination rates in Africa, as it made it highly difficult for vaccine-abundant nations to transfer their excess doses to vaccine-poor nations before they expire.

But vaccine manufacturers around the world are ramping up production, and demand for vaccines is slowly but steadily declining in high-income countries. According to the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations, at least 1.5 billion doses of Covid-19 vaccine are currently being produced every month, and the total number of vaccine doses produced is expected to reach 24 billion by June 2022. By that time, vaccine supplies are likely to outstrip global demand.

What all this means is that the supply shortage in Africa is likely to come to an end in the near future. This is undoubtedly good news for the continent. But now, African states need to focus their efforts on overcoming local bottlenecks, such as poor logistics, lack of capacity to administer doses and vaccine hesitancy, which could hinder future vaccination drives.

Failure to address these bottlenecks swiftly and efficiently could result in more and more vaccine doses being returned to manufacturers or destroyed, especially considering the short shelf life of most doses.

The continent has endemic logistical problems. Many of Africa’s leading ports, for example, are suffering from high levels of corruption, which already cause significant delays in and adding costs to imports. These problems could also derail the continent’s Covid-19 vaccination drives.

Furthermore, Africa’s cold chain infrastructure is highly insufficient, which is readily causing 50% of the food produced by African countries on average to be wasted. Considering Covid-19 vaccines need to be refrigerated – some at very low temperatures – this inadequacy can also pose a threat to vaccination campaigns.

And even if these logistics problems are resolved, most African nations do not currently have the means to put all the doses they are expected to receive in the arms of Africans before they reach their expiry dates.

For one thing, there are not nearly enough nurses or other trained health professionals to administer the vaccines. The average number of nurses in sub-Saharan Africa countries is one per thousand of the population, compared with 10 per thousand in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries and 15 per thousand in North America, according to the World Bank. Furthermore, many of these countries also do not have enough syringes for widespread vaccination drives.

Low urbanisation levels in many African countries are also an obstacle to vaccine campaigns. While the urbanisation rate has rapidly increased on the continent over the past few decades, it remains relatively low, making it harder to administer the vaccine to all citizens. Six in ten sub-Saharan Africans still live in rural areas, according to the World Bank.

To reach segments of the population in remote areas, Ivory Coast deployed mobile clinics across the country and Ghana used drones to deliver doses to remote areas. Other African countries should also invest in such initiatives if they want to reach their vaccination targets in time.

On top of these logistical problems, vaccine hesitancy also poses a problem. Reports that the AstraZeneca vaccine can cause blood clots, and the decision by several European countries to not administer this particular vaccine to their citizens, has increased hesitancy on the continent. Moreover, social media platforms, including Facebook, which is synonymous with the internet in many African countries, have become vehicles for Covid-19 vaccine misinformation and led many Africans to become hesitant about taking the vaccine.

Many African states failed to respond efficiently to these misinformation campaigns by providing accurate information on vaccines. Regrettably, several respected public figures, including political leaders, also directly contributed to the spread of misinformation and baseless doubts about the safety of vaccines.

As more doses arrive on the continent, domestic bottlenecks will become the main constraints to the vaccination efforts. African leaders with the support of development institutions should set clear vaccination plans, invest strategically in improving logistics and digitalising their systems to better track doses. They should also expand and improve their cold chain infrastructures. They should invest in initiatives to ensure doses reach segments of the population in remote areas.

To address vaccine hesitancy, politicians, whether in power on not, should partner with popular public figures, such as football players, music stars, and social media influencers, to encourage Africans to get vaccinated. Financial incentives such as conditional cash transfers via mobile phones can also help to stimulate vaccination, and provide the needed relief to households who have suffered greatly during the pandemic.

 

The views expressed in this column, which was originally published at Al Jazeera, are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial stance. See the original version here.

Most read

Sanctions and carbon emissions in Iran

How are Iran’s energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide affected by the imposition of economic sanctions? This column summarises new research that analyses a range of different scenarios and which takes account of multiple economic, social and environmental dimensions, notably what happens to growth and energy intensity, and whether sanctions are lifted.

Economic roots of early marriage in Iran

Despite the documented harms of being married off before the age of 18, particularly for girls, early marriage remains common in parts of Iran. This column summarises research that sheds light on the economic factors that drive this practice, using unique provincial data to show that poverty, inflation and income inequality are key determinants –while religiosity is not. The findings suggest that economic policies can play a crucial role in reducing the prevalence of child marriage.

Can a free trade area in services boost trade within the Arab region?

With trade in goods among Arab countries remaining modest, trade in services could play the pivotal role of an engine of growth in economic integration within the region, as well greater participation in global value chains. This column outlines progress to date and what needs to be done to make a success of AFTAS, the Arab free trade area in services.

Natural disaster literacy in Iran: survey evidence from Tehran

The frequent floods, earthquakes, and heat waves in the Middle East and North Africa underscore the urgent need to assess the region's preparedness for natural disasters. This column summarizes the state of 'natural disaster literacy' in various parts of Tehran, the capital of Iran and one of the most populous metropolitan areas in MENA. Data from a survey conducted in the winter of 2020/21 enabled the development of a disaster literacy index, which helps to identify the city's most vulnerable districts.

Should Arab countries join the WTO’s agreement on government procurement?

Not all members of the World Trade Organization are signatories of the institution’s Agreement on Government Procurement – the GPA. Indeed, although many developing economies are now joining the agreement or at least acquiring observer status, it has long been thought that the costs outweigh the benefits. This column re-evaluates the pros and cons of GPA accession for Arab countries.

Financial development, corruption and informality in MENA

Reducing the extent of informality in the Middle East and North Africa would help to promote economic growth. This column reports evidence on how corruption and financial development influence the size of the informal economy in countries across the region. The efficiency of the financial sector in MENA economies reduces the corruption incentive for firms to seek to join and stay in the formal sector.

EU climate policy: potential effects on the exports of Arab countries

The carbon border adjustment mechanism aims to ensure that Europe’s green objectives are not undermined by the relocation of production to parts of the world with less ambitious climate policies – but it could impose substantial costs on developing countries that export to the European Union. This column examines the potential impact on exporters in the Arab world – and outlines possible policy responses that could mitigate the economic damage.

Climate change threats and how the Arab countries should respond

The Arab region is highly vulnerable to extreme events caused by climate change. This column outlines the threats and explores what can be done to ward off disaster, not least moving away from the extraction of fossil fuels and taking advantage of the opportunities in renewable energy generation. This would both mitigate the potential for further environmental damage and act as a catalyst for more and better jobs, higher incomes and improved social outcomes.

Exchange rate undervaluation: the impact on participation in world trade

Can currency undervaluation influence participation in world trade through global value chains (GVC)? This column reports new evidence on the positive impact of an undervalued real exchange rate on the involvement of a country’s firms in GVCs. Undervaluation acts as an economy-wide industrial policy, supporting the competitiveness of national exports in foreign markets vis-à-vis those of other countries.

Child stunting in Tunisia: an alarming rise

Child stunting in Tunisia seemed to have fallen significantly over the past two decades. But as this column reports, new analysis indicates that the positive trend has now gone dramatically into reverse. Indeed, the evidence is unequivocal: the nutritional health of the country’s youngest citizens is rapidly deteriorating and requires immediate and decisive action.




LinkedIn