Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Tourism in MENA after Covid-19: from shock to structural transformation

2647
Covid-19 is likely to result in profound changes to the attitudes, concerns and travel preferences of tourists. This column argues that for countries in the Middle East and North Africa that are heavily dependent on the tourism sector, addressing the concerns of consumers and trying to offer customised services will be key to recovery.

In a nutshell

The tourism sector in MENA countries requires measures to rebuild consumer confidence, change consumer patterns, allow rapid testing, increase the quality of tourism services and use of technology, and develop sustainable tourism.

Changes to consumer behaviour and consumer preferences during lockdown could promote a shift to greater use of technologies, more virtual tourism and demand for more sustainable travel.

The extent of the pandemic has shown that ‘business as usual’ is not a viable option; there needs to be greater investment in technology and sustainable tourism in line with the Sustainable Development Goals.

The near worldwide lockdown imposed to prevent the spread of Covid-19 has affected tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and across the world. In MENA, it has had especially dire effects on Egypt, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia, which rely most heavily on tourism.

A gradual return to some sort of normal life in MENA countries will require implementation of a wider range of new tourism policies, including ways to rebuild consumer confidence, change consumer patterns, allow rapid testing, increase the quality of tourism services and use of technology, and develop sustainable tourism.

Rebuilding consumer confidence

In Dubai, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, efforts were made to attract tourists during the summer based on strict health and hygiene measures. But the safety protocols and certifications have not avoided a second wave of Covid-19 in some MENA countries. The pandemic has increased consumers’ concerns about travelling and profoundly changed consumer preferences.

The most important aspect for travellers is safety. Having to subject themselves to a period of quarantine on arrival at a destination is a major concern for tourists. People are hesitant about visiting destinations that have long quarantine periods although some airports are offering pre-flight testing of passengers to try to avoid quarantine.

Travellers are also concerned about safety in airports, on aircraft and in accommodation. It is important that airport and airline staff are seen to be wearing appropriate protection (such as face coverings, gloves, etc.) to convince travellers that travel is safe, and that accommodation is being cleaned and sanitised thoroughly and regularly.

Airbnb accommodation hosts can register for ‘cleaning protocol’ certification, which includes training in how to prepare the accommodation for guests and information on preventing infections. This includes wearing of face coverings and gloves by hosts and cleaners, use of appropriate disinfectants and cleaning materials, all of which improve the confidence of guests.

Nevertheless, the pandemic is likely to result in profound changes to tourists’ behaviour, thinking and choice of travel means. Lockdown affected shopping behaviour, reduced impulsive buying and the purchase of expensive, less healthy and unsustainable goods. The use of technologies, working from home and availability of videoconferencing platforms have become the norm and are likely to lead to less travel in the future.

After the pandemic, safety and financial reasons are likely to discourage people from travelling. Many people have lost jobs and incomes during the pandemic. Domestic travel is likely to be preferred to international destinations and, in some cases, people may prefer virtual tourism experiences.

There is also likely to be more demand for longer stays to reduce the time spent in airports and aircraft. Future travel and tourism activities are likely to be characterised by higher demand for comfortable separate accommodation that provides privacy and focuses on small separate groups.

Building consumer confidence will require major efforts. MENA countries will need to adopt appropriate measures and innovations such as rapid testing to revive the sector. Hygiene and safety protocols will need to be implemented to instil confidence in the consumer about the safety of travelling. Travel packages will need to be adapted and domestic tourism promoted.

MENA countries should focus on provision of tourism services based on consumer preferences, and invest in good quality comfortable accommodation to make travellers feel safe, enjoy privacy and avoid mixing with large numbers of people. Understanding the concerns of consumers and customising services will be key to the recovery of tourism in MENA countries.

Intensive and efficient use of technology: the need to invest in Tourism 4.0

The pandemic has accelerated the transition to ‘Tourism 4.0’. The containment measures that have been put in place have emptied destinations around the world, but consumers have been able to experience virtual tourism from their homes. The possibility of virtual visits to various tourist destinations such as museums, castles, galleries, exhibitions, etc. shows that certain products can be consumed differently.

Popular destinations have developed virtual experiences that allow consumers to enjoy these attractions from their own homes (Ben Youssef et al, 2020). For example, during lockdown, Egypt moved many of its tourist activities online and has been offering virtual tours of the country’s most famous archaeological and heritage sites to reduce the risk of large groups visiting these attractions.

The tourism businesses in MENA countries will need to continue to invest in Tourism 4.0 technologies even after the pandemic. The use of digital technologies such as chatbots to make reservations, big data to understand consumer preferences, artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, 5G and robots will be the future of the tourism sector and will shape future tourist experiences.

Implementation and intensive use of new technologies will be vital for the recovery of the tourism sector in MENA countries and will enable provision of personalised services, improving the tourism experience. People pay for the travel experience, so MENA countries must invest in it.

Increasing the quality and sustainability of the tourism sector in MENA countries

The constraints imposed by the pandemic on carrying capacity are improving the customer experience and allowing airlines to respond to certain customer demands. A greater focus on a good quality experience would reduce mass tourism that is damaging to nature, natural resources and the services offered.

The global response to the pandemic has resulted in reduced greenhouse gas emissions. IATA estimates a 38% reduction in air travel in 2020, which equates to a 352.7 Mt year-on-year decrease in emissions from the aviation sector.

The ‘low-cost’ tourism to which many tourists had become accustomed is likely to become less available – for ecological, economic, hygiene and political reasons. The democratisation of tourism has led to low-cost travel and an excessively increased ecological footprint. The Covid-19 crisis has the potential to change this business model and allow quality to dominate quantity.

Undoubtedly, the crisis is leading to reconsideration of the effects of mass tourism on the environment. For example, Tunisia is implementing alternative and sustainable tourism programmes such as the ‘Tounes Wejhatouna initiative’ to diversify the tourism offer and satisfy consumers’ aspirations more effectively. Morocco is also making efforts to achieve more sustainable tourism in the post-Covid-19 world by focusing on the ecology and improved wellbeing.

To reduce the impact of mass tourism on the environment, MENA countries will need to focus on green and alternative tourism, which will require profound changes to tourism business models in the near future. Businesses will need to focus on innovation and sustainability, and consumers are likely to prefer more ecological behaviours.

MENA countries should aim to provide higher quality services, a better customer experience and environmentally friendly services. Promoting less distant destinations and lower-carbon modes of transport, as well as incentives for tourism operators to reduce emissions, could contribute to the development of sustainable tourism.

Conclusion

The economic slowdown and the pressure to open borders has led to a second wave of infections since travel was the main mechanism of the spread of Covid-19 worldwide. The impact of the pandemic on the tourism sector in MENA countries seems likely to be high and will require the sector to undergo a deep structural transformation.

The recovery of the tourism industry is crucial for MENA, since tourism is one of the main contributors to employment and economic growth in these countries. Changes to consumer behaviour and consumer preferences under lockdown could promote a shift to greater use of technologies, more virtual tourism, and demand for more sustainable travel.

The extent of the pandemic has shown that ‘business as usual’ is not a viable option, and that there needs to be greater investment in technology and sustainable tourism in line with the Sustainable Development Goals.

Further reading

Adel Ben Youssef, Adelina Zeqiri and But Dedaj, B. (2020) ‘Short and Long Run Effects of Covid-19 on the Hospitality Industry and the Potential Effects on Jet Fuel Markets’, IAEE Energy Forum/Covid-19 Issue 2020.

Adel Ben Youssef, Adelina Zeqir and Fateh Belaid (2020) ‘The impact of Covid-19 on the tourism sector in MENA’, ERF Forum.

International Air Transport Association. (2020) ‘Covid-19 Updated Impact Assessment’.

Most read

Green hydrogen production and exports: could MENA countries lead the way?

The Arab region stands at the threshold of a transformative opportunity to become a global leader in green hydrogen production and exports. But as this column explains, achieving this potential will require substantial investments, robust policy frameworks and a commitment to technological innovation.

Freedom: the missing piece in analysis of multidimensional wellbeing

Political philosophy has long emphasised the importance of freedom in shaping a meaningful life, yet it is consistently overlooked in assessments of human wellbeing across multiple dimensions. This column focuses on the freedom to express opinions, noting that it is shaped by both formal laws and informal social dynamics, fluctuating with the changing cultural context, particularly in the age of social media. Data on public opinion in Arab countries over the past decade are revealing about how this key freedom is perceived.

Climate change threats and how the Arab countries should respond

The Arab region is highly vulnerable to extreme events caused by climate change. This column outlines the threats and explores what can be done to ward off disaster, not least moving away from the extraction of fossil fuels and taking advantage of the opportunities in renewable energy generation. This would both mitigate the potential for further environmental damage and act as a catalyst for more and better jobs, higher incomes and improved social outcomes.

Child stunting in Tunisia: an alarming rise

Child stunting in Tunisia seemed to have fallen significantly over the past two decades. But as this column reports, new analysis indicates that the positive trend has now gone dramatically into reverse. Indeed, the evidence is unequivocal: the nutritional health of the country’s youngest citizens is rapidly deteriorating and requires immediate and decisive action.

Exchange rate undervaluation: the impact on participation in world trade

Can currency undervaluation influence participation in world trade through global value chains (GVC)? This column reports new evidence on the positive impact of an undervalued real exchange rate on the involvement of a country’s firms in GVCs. Undervaluation acts as an economy-wide industrial policy, supporting the competitiveness of national exports in foreign markets vis-à-vis those of other countries.

New horizons for economic transformation in the GCC countries

The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have historically relied on hydrocarbons for economic growth. As this column explains ahead of a high-level ERF policy seminar in Dubai, emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, blockchain and robotics – what some call the fourth industrial revolution – present a unique opportunity for the region to reduce its dependence on oil and make the transition to a knowledge-based economy.

Egypt’s labour market: new survey data for evidence-based decision-making

As Egypt faces substantial social and economic shifts, understanding the labour market is crucial for designing policies that promote employment and inclusive economic growth. This column introduces the latest wave of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey, which provides fresh, nationally representative data that are vital for examining these dynamics.

Shifting public trust in governments across the Arab world

The Arab Spring, which began over a decade ago, was driven by popular distrust in governments of the region. The column reports on how public trust has shifted since then, drawing on survey data collected soon after the uprising and ten years later. The findings reveal a dynamic and often fragile landscape of trust in Arab governments from the early 2010s to the early 2020s. Growing distrust across many countries should raise concerns about future political and social instability.

Corruption in Iran: the role of oil rents

How do fluctuations in oil rents influence levels of corruption in Iran? This column reports the findings of new research, which examines the impact of increases in the country’s oil revenues on corruption, including the mechanisms through which the effects occur – higher inflation, greater public spending on the military and the weakness of democratic institutions.

More jobs, better jobs and inclusive jobs: the promise of renewable energy

Among the many economic and environmental challenges facing the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), two stand out: the need for jobs and the need to combat the threat of climate change by moving away from reliance on fossil fuels. As this column explains, embracing renewable energy technologies presents an opportunity for the region to diversify its economy, mitigate the possible negative impacts of digital technologies on existing jobs, reduce its carbon footprint and create significant levels of employment, particularly for women and the youth, across a variety of sectors.




LinkedIn