Economic Research Forum (ERF)

July

The Lebanese tragedy: who is to blame?

The collapse of the Lebanese economy triggered vicious cycles that are spiralling out of control. As a result, there is a growing debate about whom to blame for the crisis. Many blamed the government – or the central bank – or the rent-seekers; others blamed the entire political and economic system. This column sheds light on the chain of events that led to the crisis.

A looming oil price super cycle will likely be the last

A new oil price super cycle, an extended period during which prices exceed their long-term trend, seems to be in the making. This column, originally published in the Summer 2021 issue of Finance and Development, explores why it could be the last of its kind – and the challenging implications for oil-dependent economies and their neighbours.

Tax policy for the post-Covid-19 era

Covid-19 offers an opportunity for developing countries to rethink their tax policy to contribute to the reconstruction effort and promote the recovery. This column explores what the legacy of the pandemic will be for our tax systems and several dimensions for the required rethinking.

Why does growth generate so few and such low-quality jobs in North Africa?

A new report examines the type and quality of jobs created in Algeria, Egypt, Sudan and Tunisia, and how they relate to patterns of economic growth. As this column explains, the history of dependence on oil and other resources as the engines of growth in these economies has meant a large flow of rents into government coffers, which has enabled an outsized but unsustainable role for the public sector as an employer.

Most read

Trust in Lebanon’s public institutions: a challenge for the new leadership

Lebanon’s new leadership confronts daunting economic challenges amid geopolitical tensions across the wider region. As this column explains, understanding what has happened over the past decade to citizens’ trust in key public institutions – parliament, the government and the armed forces – will be a crucial part of the policy response.

A Macroeconomic Accounting of Unemployment in Jordan:  Unemployment is mainly an issue for adults and men

Since unemployment rates in Jordan are higher among young people and women than other groups, unemployment is commonly characterised as a youth and gender issue. However, the majority of the country’s unemployed are adults and men. This suggests that unemployment is primarily a macroeconomic issue challenge for the entire labour market. The appropriate response therefore is coordinated fiscal, monetary, structural and institutional policies, while more targeted measures can still benefit specific groups.

Tunisia’s energy transition: the key role of small businesses

Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) play a critical role in Tunisia’s economy, contributing significantly to GDP and employment. As this column explains, they are also essential for advancing the country’s ambitions to make a successful transition from reliance on fossil fuels to more widespread use of renewable energy sources. A fair distribution of the transition’s benefits across all regions and communities will secure a future where MSMEs thrive as leaders in a prosperous, inclusive and sustainable Tunisia.

The green energy transition: employment pathways for MENA

The potential employment impacts of green and renewable energy in the Middle East and North Africa are multifaceted and promising. As this column explains, embracing renewable energy technologies presents an opportunity for the region to diversify its economy, mitigate the possible negative impacts of digitalisation on existing jobs, reduce its carbon footprint and create significant levels of employment across a variety of sectors. Green energy is not just an environmental imperative but an economic necessity.

Drivers of renewable energy adoption in Egyptian firms

How can policy-makers encourage small and medium-sized enterprises to adopt renewable energy sources in their production processes? This column reports evidence from Egypt, where gender and youth play a key role within firms in encouraging practices that are more positive for the environment and can help to mitigate climate change.

The hidden potential of Jordan’s small firms for driving a green transition

For Jordan, a green transition represents an enormous transformative opportunity. But a decade-long increase in the use of renewable energy has not freed the country of its economic woes. This column explores the currently underused yet potentially powerful force of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises – and proposes policies that could improve the investment climate and clear legislative and regulatory barriers.

Global value chains and sustainable development

What is the role of exchange rate undervaluation in promoting participation in global value chains by firms in developing countries? What is the impact of the stringency of national environmental regulations on firms’ GVC participation? And how do firms’ political connections affect their participation in GVCs? These questions will be explored for the MENA region at a special session of the ERF annual conference, which takes place in Cairo in April 2025.




Linkedin