Economic Research Forum (ERF)

January

Tunisia is back on a knife edge – here’s why

While celebrating the seventh anniversary of the ousting of president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, Tunisians been demonstrating against their government. This column, which originally appeared on The Conversation website explores what is going on and where the country should go from here

Breaking Egypt’s unsocial contract

What have been the economic and political underpinnings of Egypt’s transition between social contract models? This column explores possible pathways to a new, more equitable and sustainable social contract, and the challenges such a contract would face. It examines the power structure in Egypt’s current ‘unsocial contract’ and whether it is possible to make the transition to a different but better social contract.

Financial inclusion, financial stability and inequality

Are programmes aimed at promoting financial inclusion in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) leading to less poverty and income inequality and more financial stability? This column outlines the evidence from a study of eight MENA countries.

Fiscal management of oil resources in booms and busts

To manage the volatility of commodity prices, resource-rich countries are typically advised to adopt a fiscal policy framework that can be operated counter-cyclically. Drawing on Norway’s experience, this column explains that a fiscal spending rule will not necessarily shelter the economy: if the constructed rule is too lax over the commodity price cycle, fiscal policy may even exacerbate the business cycle.

Corporate ownership and performance in the United Arab Emirates

While state ownership of companies is widely thought to lead to inefficiencies, in the United Arab Emirates, it has proved to be a pillar of good corporate performance. This column describes the country’s experience over the period 2008-16, evaluating the performance of listed companies and banks, and comparing indicators across privately owned companies and those in which the government holds majority stakes.

Promoting better jobs for young people in Egypt

A young person’s first job has a huge impact on the rest of their working life. Today, Egyptian youth face big challenges in securing that first position. This column explains why active labour market policies are unlikely to help with the initial transition into employment. Instead, policy-makers in Egypt should focus on improving the investment climate for small firms, and creating safe and accessible jobs for young women.

When you’re stuck in quicksand, stop kicking

As the golden age of oil nears its end, incomes in the MENA region are destined to fall precipitously from their artificial petrodollar-boosted levels. Using the analogy of how to respond to being caught in quicksand, this column argues that the quick kicks of investment in big projects and misguided wars will drag the region down further. While structural reforms are slow and boring, they are also indispensable for economic progress.

Sticks rather than carrots to expand the formal economy

Reforms that get more firms and workers into the formal economy can come in the form of both inducements such as better information and lower costs – ‘carrots’ – and legal enforcement – ‘sticks’. This column surveys the research evidence on the potential of carrots, sticks and other development policies for promoting greater formalisation and the many benefits it can bring to the economy and wider society.

Women’s education: harbinger of another spring?

Cultural norms and the social environment in many Middle Eastern societies discriminate against women, limit their socio-economic opportunities and relegate them to a lower status than men. Can education bring a change? This column reports research on what happened to young women and their children when Turkey raised the period of compulsory formal schooling from five to eight years.

How to diversify oil-producing economies

Many oil- and gas-rich countries have either announced or put in place policies to reduce their dependence on oil by diversifying their economies. This column argues that the key is to shift the focus away from the end goal of diversification and towards the transformation process of how to get there.

Ageing and pensions coverage in Arab countries

Arab countries experiencing economic and humanitarian crises are paying insufficient attention to the demographic trend of ageing populations. This column argues that providing economic security and healthcare for the elderly is one of the key challenges for the region.

Getting more women into employment in Egypt

Despite significant increases in women’s education and health indicators in Egypt, their rate of labour force participation remains one of the lowest in the world. This column explains how marriage acts as an obstacle for women taking jobs in the private sector, and outlines potential remedies to the ‘marriage mismatch’.

Most read

Happiness in the Arab world: should we be concerned?

Several Arab countries have low rankings in the latest comparative assessment of average happiness across the world. But as this column explains, the average is not a reliable summary statistic when applied to ordinal data. The evidence from more robust analysis of socio-economic inequality in happiness suggests that policy-makers should be less concerned about happiness indicators than the core development objective of more equitable social conditions for citizens.

It’s too early to tell what happened to the Arab Spring

Did the Arab Spring fail? This column presents a view the consensus view from ERF’s recent annual conference in Morocco: careful analysis of the fundamental drivers of democratic transitions suggests that it’s too early to tell.

Arab regional cooperation in a fragmenting world

As globalisation stalls, regionalisation has emerged as an alternative. This column argues that Arab countries need to face the new realities and move decisively towards greater mutual cooperation. A regional integration agenda that also supports domestic reforms could be an important source of growth, jobs and stability.

Reformed foreign ownership rules in UAE: the impact on business entry

In an effort to stimulate economic growth and diversify the economy, the government of the United Arab Emirates has recently implemented regulatory reform that allows 100% foreign ownership of companies operating in the country. This column examines the implications of the reform for entry of new firms in Dubai, using unique data on new business licences in the emirate.

Self-employment in MENA: the role of religiosity and personal values

How important are individual’s values and beliefs in influencing the likelihood that they will embrace the responsibilities, risks and entrepreneurial challenge of self-employment? This column presents evidence from 12 countries in the Middle East and North African region on the roles of people’s religiosity and sense of personal agency in their labour market choices.

Gender differences in business record-keeping and planning in Iraq

Only one in every ten informal businesses in Iraq is led by a woman. Yet as research summarised in this column reveals, those businesses are more likely to set budgets and sales targets, and to keep business records. This may be evidence of the role of social exclusion in motivating greater reliance on the formal bureaucratic system.

Conflict and debt in the Middle East and North Africa

With the global economy is in its third year of deceleration amid declining inflation and oil prices, the Middle East and North Africa grew by just 1.9% in 2023, with a forecast for growth in 2024 at 2.7%. In addition to heightened uncertainty brought on by the conflict centred in Gaza, many countries in the region are also grappling with pre-existing vulnerabilities, including rising debt levels. This column summarises a new report that unpacks the nature of debt in MENA – and explains the critical importance of keeping rising debt stocks in check.

Making aid-for-trade more effective in the MENA region

Aid-for-trade represents an important opportunity for developing countries to enhance their trade capacities. But the positive effect of aid-for-trade on exports can hinge on the quality of institutions in recipient countries. According to research reported in this column, in the Middle East and North Africa, it is specific aid types – such as aid to support trade policy reform and aid to enhance productive capacities – that matter most for exports.

Sanctions and carbon emissions in Iran

How are Iran’s energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide affected by the imposition of economic sanctions? This column summarises new research that analyses a range of different scenarios and which takes account of multiple economic, social and environmental dimensions, notably what happens to growth and energy intensity, and whether sanctions are lifted.

Can a free trade area in services boost trade within the Arab region?

With trade in goods among Arab countries remaining modest, trade in services could play the pivotal role of an engine of growth in economic integration within the region, as well greater participation in global value chains. This column outlines progress to date and what needs to be done to make a success of AFTAS, the Arab free trade area in services.




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