Economic Research Forum (ERF)

June

The dilemma of public debt in Lebanon

Lebanon’s strategy of pursuing long-term fiscal sustainability at the cost of short-term macroeconomic stability, which has dominated for over two decades, has been devastating in terms of economic growth and deteriorating infrastructure. This column explains the background to the current economic and financial crisis.

Fiscal policy for Covid-19 and beyond

Covid-19 has hit developing countries hard. This Brookings column suggests that the crisis could galvanise governments to reduce ‘leakages’ of public spending to beneficiaries other than those for whom it is intended. The objectives should be creating fiscal space to serve the poor better while setting the stage for recovery and sustained economic growth.

Lebanon must learn from the Syrian disaster

Overlapping crises are threatening the political, economic and social stability of Lebanon. As this column explains, the disaster in Syria provides insights into how grievances can accumulate to a point at which single events can trigger conflict.

Sudan and the pandemic: reforms for a vulnerable economy

Sudan’s economy was in a fragile state even before Covid-19 and the lockdown measures implemented to control the virus. This column outlines the bold yet practical reforms that are needed to help the country move to a virtuous cycle of rising productivity and incomes – and hence sustained reduction in poverty.

Who can work from home in MENA?

Which jobs can be done from home, who does them and how prevalent are they in different countries? This column reports evidence on working from home in over 50 countries, including Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia.

Measuring monetary poverty in MENA: data gaps and how to address them

As key statistical sources for measuring monetary poverty, household budget surveys are crucial for designing public policies and tracking development progress. But measuring poverty in the MENA region remains a challenge. This column identifies challenges of availability, access and quality of household budget surveys in the region and evaluates ways to fill these information gaps.

Covid-19: forging a new social contract in the Middle East and North Africa

The dual shock of Covid-19 and falling oil prices has brought to light the underlying flaws of economies in the Middle East and North Africa. This column, originally published at OECD Development Matters, suggests that events that are out of authorities’ control will trigger change in the societies of the region. Governments must decide whether that change will be guided or traumatic.

Most read

EU climate policy: potential effects on the exports of Arab countries

The carbon border adjustment mechanism aims to ensure that Europe’s green objectives are not undermined by the relocation of production to parts of the world with less ambitious climate policies – but it could impose substantial costs on developing countries that export to the European Union. This column examines the potential impact on exporters in the Arab world – and outlines possible policy responses that could mitigate the economic damage.

Green hydrogen production and exports: could MENA countries lead the way?

The Arab region stands at the threshold of a transformative opportunity to become a global leader in green hydrogen production and exports. But as this column explains, achieving this potential will require substantial investments, robust policy frameworks and a commitment to technological innovation.

Financial development, corruption and informality in MENA

Reducing the extent of informality in the Middle East and North Africa would help to promote economic growth. This column reports evidence on how corruption and financial development influence the size of the informal economy in countries across the region. The efficiency of the financial sector in MENA economies reduces the corruption incentive for firms to seek to join and stay in the formal sector.

Freedom: the missing piece in analysis of multidimensional wellbeing

Political philosophy has long emphasised the importance of freedom in shaping a meaningful life, yet it is consistently overlooked in assessments of human wellbeing across multiple dimensions. This column focuses on the freedom to express opinions, noting that it is shaped by both formal laws and informal social dynamics, fluctuating with the changing cultural context, particularly in the age of social media. Data on public opinion in Arab countries over the past decade are revealing about how this key freedom is perceived.

Climate change threats and how the Arab countries should respond

The Arab region is highly vulnerable to extreme events caused by climate change. This column outlines the threats and explores what can be done to ward off disaster, not least moving away from the extraction of fossil fuels and taking advantage of the opportunities in renewable energy generation. This would both mitigate the potential for further environmental damage and act as a catalyst for more and better jobs, higher incomes and improved social outcomes.

Child stunting in Tunisia: an alarming rise

Child stunting in Tunisia seemed to have fallen significantly over the past two decades. But as this column reports, new analysis indicates that the positive trend has now gone dramatically into reverse. Indeed, the evidence is unequivocal: the nutritional health of the country’s youngest citizens is rapidly deteriorating and requires immediate and decisive action.

Exchange rate undervaluation: the impact on participation in world trade

Can currency undervaluation influence participation in world trade through global value chains (GVC)? This column reports new evidence on the positive impact of an undervalued real exchange rate on the involvement of a country’s firms in GVCs. Undervaluation acts as an economy-wide industrial policy, supporting the competitiveness of national exports in foreign markets vis-à-vis those of other countries.

New horizons for economic transformation in the GCC countries

The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have historically relied on hydrocarbons for economic growth. As this column explains ahead of a high-level ERF policy seminar in Dubai, emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, blockchain and robotics – what some call the fourth industrial revolution – present a unique opportunity for the region to reduce its dependence on oil and make the transition to a knowledge-based economy.

Shifting public trust in governments across the Arab world

The Arab Spring, which began over a decade ago, was driven by popular distrust in governments of the region. The column reports on how public trust has shifted since then, drawing on survey data collected soon after the uprising and ten years later. The findings reveal a dynamic and often fragile landscape of trust in Arab governments from the early 2010s to the early 2020s. Growing distrust across many countries should raise concerns about future political and social instability.

Egypt’s labour market: new survey data for evidence-based decision-making

As Egypt faces substantial social and economic shifts, understanding the labour market is crucial for designing policies that promote employment and inclusive economic growth. This column introduces the latest wave of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey, which provides fresh, nationally representative data that are vital for examining these dynamics.




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