Economic Research Forum (ERF)

November

Economic performance under different types of Turkish governments

Turkey has been ruled by a wide variety of governments over the past two-thirds of a century: single-party governments; coalitions partnered by two or more parties and by ideologically compatible and incompatible parties; and minority and military governments. This column explains why the order in which one type came after another was not accidental, but followed a pattern induced by coups. Economic performance under the different types of government has varied systematically.

State-business relations: the impact on firm performance and growth

Resource reallocation from low to high productivity firms can generate large aggregate productivity gains with further potential benefits for growth. This column reports evidence on productivity and resource misallocation in a sample of firms in Egypt, Turkey and Yemen from the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys. The main focus is on state-business relations and the impact on firm performance and economic growth.

Compulsory schooling in Turkey: a deterrent to teenage marriage and births

The extension of compulsory schooling in Turkey was motivated by concerns other than the welfare of teenage mothers and their children. But as this column reports, it has had the unintended effect of reducing teenage marriage and the number of children born to teenage women.

Sahel faces poverty and conflict traps: a call for international action

Conditions in the so-called G-5 countries of the Sahel – Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger – are grim. This Brookings column from late 2016 summarises a plea for international action. More funding for day-to-day security and for economic development is urgently needed. And the socio-cultural complexity of the region calls for a multidisciplinary approach, bringing together researchers, diplomats, ethnologists, humanitarians, and defence and development experts.

Leveraging the demographic transition in North Africa

By the standards of middle-income economies, Turkey, North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean have very young populations – a demographic opportunity to achieve faster per capita income growth. This column, which draws on the EBRD’s latest Transition Report, argues that the key to taking advantage of the region’s current demographic profile is substantial investment in skills and education.

Inflation targeting versus nominal exchange rate targeting in MENA

Targeting inflation – a monetary policy strategy that has been successfully used in several developed countries – has become an increasingly attractive alternative to nominal exchange rate targeting in emerging economies. This column compares recent experiences with the two policy regimes in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey – and outlines the key requirements for the effective adoption of inflation targeting.

Tunisia’s labour market in an era of transition

Unemployment in Tunisia has been high for many years – and it is particularly prevalent among youth, women and people with higher levels of education. This column outlines the findings of a new book on the country’s labour market and the implications for policy-makers.

Most read

Egypt’s labour market: new survey data for evidence-based decision-making

As Egypt faces substantial social and economic shifts, understanding the labour market is crucial for designing policies that promote employment and inclusive economic growth. This column introduces the latest wave of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey, which provides fresh, nationally representative data that are vital for examining these dynamics.

The evolution of labour supply in Egypt

Egypt stands at a critical point in its demographic and labour market evolution. As this column explains, while fertility rates have dropped, reducing long-term demographic pressures, the ‘echo generation’, children of the youth bulge, will soon enter the labour market, intensifying the need for policies to accelerate job creation. At the same time, participation in the labour force, particularly among women and young people, is declining, partly as a result of discouragement.

More jobs, better jobs and inclusive jobs: the promise of renewable energy

Among the many economic and environmental challenges facing the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), two stand out: the need for jobs and the need to combat the threat of climate change by moving away from reliance on fossil fuels. As this column explains, embracing renewable energy technologies presents an opportunity for the region to diversify its economy, mitigate the possible negative impacts of digital technologies on existing jobs, reduce its carbon footprint and create significant levels of employment, particularly for women and the youth, across a variety of sectors.

Sanctions and energy efficiency in Iran’s industries

What is the effect of economic sanctions on the energy efficiency of Iran’s industries? This column reports the findings of new research, which examines the impact of sanction intensity within industrial sub-sectors of the Iranian economy on their energy efficiency.

Towards a productive, inclusive and green economy in MENA

Decarbonisation of the global economy is a huge opportunity for countries in the Middle East and North Africa. As this column explains, they can supercharge their development by breaking into fast-growing industries that will help the world to reduce its emissions and reach net zero, as well as offering greater employment opportunities and new export lines. Micro, small and medium enterprises in the region can lead the transition to a cleaner and sustainable future, but this may require the formation of clusters of firms that overcome some of the constraints that their limited size could involve.

Poverty and plutonomy: measuring extreme bipolarisation in the Arab world

Inequality in the Arab world is not just a question of extreme poverty or extreme affluence: it’s about both. This column presents research that uses the lenses of both poverty analysis and plutonomy analysis to capture the extreme polarisation between the poor, who suffer from exclusion and deprivation, and the ultra-wealthy, who wield immense power over economic and political systems.

Participation of Arab countries in global value chains

To what extent are countries in the Arab region participating in the global value chains (GVCs) that now dominate world trade? What are the main determinants of engagement in GVCs? And what are the expected benefits for Arab countries from joining them? This column answers these questions, concluding that it is important to focus on the products in which countries both enjoy a natural comparative advantage and can increase domestic value added in the intermediate and final parts of the production process.

The future of regionalism in the Arab world: a political economy view

The potential growth benefits of greater trade integration of the Arab countries, both within the Middle East and with the rest of the world economy, have long been discussed. But as this column explains, in the current climate of international political and economic relations, moves towards trade liberalisation and new or deeper trade agreements are unlikely to happen. Policy-makers in the region need to pursue alternative strategies to develop their economies.

Growth in the Middle East and North Africa

What is the economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa? How is the current conflict centred in Gaza affecting economies in the region? What are the potential long-term effects of conflict on development? And which strategies can MENA countries adopt to accelerate economic growth? This column outlines the findings in the World Bank’s latest half-yearly MENA Economic Update, which answers these questions and more.

Rising influence: women’s empowerment within Arab households

In 2016 and again in 2022, a reliable poll of public opinion in the Arab world asked respondents in seven countries whether they agreed with the statement that ‘a man should have final say in all decisions concerning the family’. As this column reports, the changing balance of responses between the two surveys gives an indication of whether there been progress in the distribution of decision-making within households towards greater empowerment of women.




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