Economic Research Forum (ERF)

It’s too early to tell what happened to the Arab Spring

1252
Did the Arab Spring fail? This column presents a view the consensus view from ERF’s recent annual conference in Morocco: careful analysis of the fundamental drivers of democratic transitions suggests that it’s too early to tell.

In a nutshell

Measuring the strength of civil society, its efficacy at staving off polarisation, its ability to forge broad coalitions, and the implications of all of that for choices about redistribution constitutes an important research agenda for political economy in MENA.

Transitions to democracy are fraught with the complexity of uncertain moments, moments that are crossroads where nothing is inevitable, and where agency and choice are paramount.

It is too early to pass a judgment on the failure of democracy in MENA or its successful consolidation in the West: the two regions are converging at a dangerous point of weak trust in institutions, high social polarisation and inhumane violence.

James Robinson’s keynote address at ERF’s 30th annual conference in Rabat, Morocco, asked why the Arab Spring had failed. The reaction in the room was: ‘It did not; it is too early to tell’.

It has been assumed that societies make the transition to democracy when certain conditions are met. These conditions include economic development, education, and a sizeable middle class. Research on transitions to democracy has attributed the consolidation and success of democratic transitions to the rule of law, a legal system that protects rights, especially property rights, and a tradition of belief in democracy’s intrinsic values.

That is the theoretical terrain on which Robinson and his co-author Daron Acemoglu expanded with welcome nuance in three of their seminal works: Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy, Why Nations Fail and The Narrow Corridor. Indeed, it is advisable to stick to nuance and not rush to a declaration of failure or success.

In Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy, Acemoglu and Robinson developed an analytical framework that assumed inherent conflict among social classes. Citizens want democracy while elites want less of it. They understood inequality to be a driver of unrest. Changes are likely to occur in societies with greater inequality: the higher the inequality, the more credible the threat of revolution. It is important to remember that Acemoglu and Robinson acknowledged that inequality is not only economic; ethnic or regional inequality – as in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and other parts of the world – may be a driver of change.

A focus on inequality invokes policies of redistribution as an option for the elites to diffuse social anger. This is very relevant in the MENA context. ‘What and whom’ to tax and ‘how’ to design redistributive policies are all critical political economy questions. Answers could determine whether the elite democratises or decides to resort to repression as a better option.

A focus on inequality and redistribution explains the challenging context of transitions to democracy in MENA, a region with a weak tax base, nascent programmes of social transfer, and rentier-based assets in the hands of unaccountable state entities. A focus on inequality and redistribution is thus crucial for understanding the challenging context of democratisation efforts.

Policies of social transfer and social protection are particularly challenging in context of high dependency on loans. Highly indebted countries must service the debt with little or nothing left to spend on education, health, mitigation of and adaptation to climate change, and a just energy transition. High debt that erodes investments in human capital and sustainable development simply deepens inequality and increases demand for policies of distribution.

That eventually brings a country back to a breaking point: to democratise, to distribute wealth more equitably, to combine distribution with repression or simply to resort to oppression. Of course, the cost of social demands for sharing economic and political power and the cost of elite repression are issues of perception – and therein lies the uncertainty of democratic transitions.

Inclusive institutions were the central focus of Acemoglu and Robinson’s second book, Why Nations Fail. They argued that inclusive institutions create order and protect property, both of which entice investment and innovation. But if order tips toward extractive institutions, nations may generate growth, but not inclusive prosperity. This view squares firmly with the current inclination in the development research to go beyond ‘growth’ adding sustainability, resilience and inclusion.

In their third seminal work, The Narrow Corridor, Acemoglu and Robinson ultimately arrived at liberty. They acknowledged that liberty is not the natural order of things: it is rare and fragile. Liberty, they argued, requires a strong society where social capital takes the form of civil society organisations or other less Western models of social collective action.

Acemoglu and Robinson did not equate strong associational life with harmony. Indeed, they reminded us that some strong societies are divided and polarised; and a strong society is not to be automatically equated with democracy. For example, they argue that India has a strong society but is highly polarised. Europe had stretches of history where society was well organised but had no democratic institutions. And the current situation in Europe and the United States is fascinating, both struggling to stave off right-wing populist and polarising political movements although they have strong and organised societies.

This is a valuable area of research in several MENA countries, including Egypt and Tunisia, to develop a better understanding of democratisation efforts in 2011. Measuring the strength of civil society (through such work as the World Values Survey, The Civicus Civic Space Index, BTI Transformation index, CSO Sustainability Index, ), civil society efficacy at staving off polarisation (e.g. the Global Initiative on Polarization), its ability to forge broad coalitions, and the implications of all of that for choices about redistribution constitutes an important research agenda for political economy in MENA. The same applies to the creation of a typology of social coalitions and assessing their influence on policies and institutions during a transition.

To avoid a political economy analysis that arrives at premature conclusions, it is advisable to combine economic modelling, grand theory and granular context analysis. Transitions are fraught with the complexity of uncertain moments, moments that are crossroads where nothing is inevitable, and where agency and choice are paramount.

Calling for the triangulation of economic modelling with grand theory and granular context analysis is not a call for cultural reductionism. The fact that the West and the Middle East are converging at a dangerous point of weak trust in institutions (including of international multilateral institutions), high social polarisation, and inhumane violence (the epitome of which is being committed currently by the so-called ‘only democracy in MENA’) tells us that ‘culture’ should not be an easy explanation, that it is too early to pass a judgment on the failure of democracy in MENA or its successful consolidation in the West.

Most read

EU climate policy: potential effects on the exports of Arab countries

The carbon border adjustment mechanism aims to ensure that Europe’s green objectives are not undermined by the relocation of production to parts of the world with less ambitious climate policies – but it could impose substantial costs on developing countries that export to the European Union. This column examines the potential impact on exporters in the Arab world – and outlines possible policy responses that could mitigate the economic damage.

Green hydrogen production and exports: could MENA countries lead the way?

The Arab region stands at the threshold of a transformative opportunity to become a global leader in green hydrogen production and exports. But as this column explains, achieving this potential will require substantial investments, robust policy frameworks and a commitment to technological innovation.

Financial development, corruption and informality in MENA

Reducing the extent of informality in the Middle East and North Africa would help to promote economic growth. This column reports evidence on how corruption and financial development influence the size of the informal economy in countries across the region. The efficiency of the financial sector in MENA economies reduces the corruption incentive for firms to seek to join and stay in the formal sector.

Freedom: the missing piece in analysis of multidimensional wellbeing

Political philosophy has long emphasised the importance of freedom in shaping a meaningful life, yet it is consistently overlooked in assessments of human wellbeing across multiple dimensions. This column focuses on the freedom to express opinions, noting that it is shaped by both formal laws and informal social dynamics, fluctuating with the changing cultural context, particularly in the age of social media. Data on public opinion in Arab countries over the past decade are revealing about how this key freedom is perceived.

Climate change threats and how the Arab countries should respond

The Arab region is highly vulnerable to extreme events caused by climate change. This column outlines the threats and explores what can be done to ward off disaster, not least moving away from the extraction of fossil fuels and taking advantage of the opportunities in renewable energy generation. This would both mitigate the potential for further environmental damage and act as a catalyst for more and better jobs, higher incomes and improved social outcomes.

Child stunting in Tunisia: an alarming rise

Child stunting in Tunisia seemed to have fallen significantly over the past two decades. But as this column reports, new analysis indicates that the positive trend has now gone dramatically into reverse. Indeed, the evidence is unequivocal: the nutritional health of the country’s youngest citizens is rapidly deteriorating and requires immediate and decisive action.

Exchange rate undervaluation: the impact on participation in world trade

Can currency undervaluation influence participation in world trade through global value chains (GVC)? This column reports new evidence on the positive impact of an undervalued real exchange rate on the involvement of a country’s firms in GVCs. Undervaluation acts as an economy-wide industrial policy, supporting the competitiveness of national exports in foreign markets vis-à-vis those of other countries.

New horizons for economic transformation in the GCC countries

The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have historically relied on hydrocarbons for economic growth. As this column explains ahead of a high-level ERF policy seminar in Dubai, emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, blockchain and robotics – what some call the fourth industrial revolution – present a unique opportunity for the region to reduce its dependence on oil and make the transition to a knowledge-based economy.

Shifting public trust in governments across the Arab world

The Arab Spring, which began over a decade ago, was driven by popular distrust in governments of the region. The column reports on how public trust has shifted since then, drawing on survey data collected soon after the uprising and ten years later. The findings reveal a dynamic and often fragile landscape of trust in Arab governments from the early 2010s to the early 2020s. Growing distrust across many countries should raise concerns about future political and social instability.

Egypt’s labour market: new survey data for evidence-based decision-making

As Egypt faces substantial social and economic shifts, understanding the labour market is crucial for designing policies that promote employment and inclusive economic growth. This column introduces the latest wave of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey, which provides fresh, nationally representative data that are vital for examining these dynamics.




LinkedIn