Economic Research Forum (ERF)

March

What is the likely impact of the earthquakes on economic growth in Türkiye?

The earthquakes in Türkiye and Syria in February 2023 have caused widespread destruction and loss of life. As explained in this column, originally published at the Economic Observatory, experiences from a previous earthquake suggest that the impact on GDP in Türkiye is likely to be short-lived, as public spending on reconstruction will provide a substantial economic boost.

Measuring poverty in Lebanon in the time of economic collapse

What has been the impact of Lebanon’s long-running economic crisis on the daily lives of citizens? This column documents a sharp increase in absolute poverty starting in 2019. Having at least three poor people out of every five residents of the country is a clear signal of the emergency of the situation.

Gender and corruption in MENA countries

The Middle East and North Africa is generally thought to be among the parts of the world where corruption spreads the fastest – and this is despite the progress of legislation in some MENA countries and the economic wealth in others. The role of women in the fight against corruption in the region is often ignored and underestimated. This column argues that more gender egalitarianism in a fair system can enhance efforts to reduce corruption.

Social protection in Jordan: towards collaborative implementation

Jordan has an ambitious national strategy for social protection, adopted in 2019. But as this column explains, implementing it has not been easy in the context of economic challenges, the global pandemic and geopolitical instability. Achieving transformative social protection requires a new social contract, citizen engagement and effective support from the international donor community.

The impact of revolution and war on income inequality in Iran

How did Iran’s revolution of 1978-79 and the war with Iraq from 1980 to 1988 affect levels of income inequality levels in the country? Would income inequality have developed differently in Iran if the revolution and war had never occurred? And how significant were the effects of the revolution and war in reducing income inequality? This column reports new research findings on these questions.

Investing in climate action and the SDGs for a resilient future

The interlinked crises of climate change, lingering effects of Covid-19 and the ensuing food and energy crises need to be tackled together – and as this column explains, this is best done within the broader context of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and in a framework of effective partnerships.

On calamities, debt and growth in developing countries

What implications does the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic have for debt and growth in developing countries? This column, originally published by the World Bank, summarises new research evidence on the economic impact of three types of calamities – natural disasters, conflicts and external debt distress.

Funding women entrepreneurs in MENA

Do women entrepreneurs in the Middle East and North Africa face obstacles in funding their businesses, either from others’ behaviour, such as discrimination, or their own, such as self-selection? This column reports evidence from data collected on more than 6,000 enterprises in six MENA countries, documenting the financial behaviour of both owners and managers according to their gender.

Economic issues affecting MENA through the lens of public opinion

For more than a decade, policy-makers in developing countries in the Middle East and North Africa have been confronted with high inequality, low growth, rising poverty, and high youth and women’s unemployment. They now face new challenges as well. This column, originally published by the Middle East Institute, identifies some of the most important issues affecting the region, relates them to the results of a recent survey of 12 Arab countries carried out by Arab Barometer, and suggests some pathways out of the current quagmire.

Most read

Private capital and financial innovation in Egypt’s clean energy transition

The Benban Solar Park, Africa’s biggest photovoltaic power station, demonstrates Egypt’s ability to attract foreign investment, implement complex infrastructure projects and align its energy goals with environmental sustainability. As this column explains, the next stage of the country’s clean energy transition requires a diversified financial ecosystem, together with committed and well-coordinated policy support.

The rising threat of water and food insecurity in MENA

The Middle East and North Africa is rapidly becoming the global epicentre of water and food insecurity. Drawing on regional evidence and global comparisons, this column identifies urgent priorities and offers policy strategies to strengthen resilience in this particularly climate-stressed part of the world before the crisis deepens further. The tools exist: what is needed is the political will and coordinated action to use them.

Sanctions and the shrinking size of Iran’s middle class

International sanctions imposed on Iran from 2012 have reduced the size of the country’s middle class, according to new research summarised in this column. The findings highlight the profound social consequences of economic pressure, not least given the crucial role of that segment of society for national innovation, growth and stability. The study underscores the need for policies to safeguard the civilian population in countries targeted by sanctions.

Artificial intelligence and the renewable energy transition in MENA

Artificial intelligence has the potential to bridge the gap between abundant natural resources and the pressing need for reliable, sustainable power in the Middle East and North Africa. This column outlines the constraints and proposes policies that can address the challenges of variability of renewable resources and stress on power grids, and support the transformation of ‘sunlight’ to ‘smart power’.

Green jobs for MENA in the age of AI: crafting a sustainable labour market

Arab economies face a dual transformation: the decarbonisation imperative driven by climate change; and the rapid digitalisation brought by artificial intelligence. This column argues that by strategically managing the green-AI nexus, policy-makers in the region can position their countries not merely as followers adapting to global mandates but as leaders in sustainable innovation.

MENA integration into global value chains and sustainable development

Despite the geopolitical advantages, abundant natural resources and young populations of many countries in the Middle East and North Africa, they remain on the periphery of global value chains, the international networks of production and service activities that now dominate the world economy. This column explains the positive impact of integration into GVCs on exports and employment; its role in technology transfer and capacity upgrading; and the structural barriers that constrain the region’s involvement. Greater GVC participation can help to deliver structural transformation and sustainable development.

Egypt’s forgotten democratisation: a challenge to modern myths about MENA

A widely held narrative asserts that countries in the Middle East are inevitably authoritarian. This column reports new research that tracks Egyptian parliamentarians since 1824 to reveal that the region’s struggle with democracy is not in fact about cultural incompatibility: it’s about colonialism disrupting home-grown democratic movements and elite conflicts being resolved through disenfranchisement rather than power-sharing.




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