Economic Research Forum (ERF)

October

Tourism in MENA after Covid-19: from shock to structural transformation

Covid-19 is likely to result in profound changes to the attitudes, concerns and travel preferences of tourists. This column argues that for countries in the Middle East and North Africa that are heavily dependent on the tourism sector, addressing the concerns of consumers and trying to offer customised services will be key to recovery.

The impact of Covid-19 on the tourism sector in MENA

Following the big fall in international tourist arrivals in the Middle East and North Africa early in the pandemic, some countries restarted activities during the summer with an emphasis on health and hygiene measures. But as this column explains, a second wave of Covid-19 could paralyse the sector and lead to bankruptcy for many businesses.

Economic consequences of Covid-19: a counterfactual multi-country analysis

The Covid-19 pandemic poses formidable challenges to policy-makers and to the empirical analysis of its effects within the interconnected global economy. This column quantifies the impact along several dimensions, showing that the global recession will be long lasting, with no countries escaping regardless of their mitigation strategies. The findings call for a coordinated multi-country policy response.

External debt vulnerability in the time of Covid-19

Covid-19 is threatening emerging markets and developing economies in multiple ways. As this column explains, these countries are even more vulnerable now than they were at the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008, raising fears that the impact of the current crisis might be more devastating and economic recovery more distant.

Late-movers outperform first-movers in export markets

The relationship between first-movers and late-movers in export markets has important policy implications. First-movers need to be productive enough to pay market entry costs; in turn, they generate ‘information externalities’ for late-movers. This column uses a unique disaggregated export-level customs dataset – including from Egypt and Jordan – to test whether first-movers outperform late-movers in export markets.

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Arab youth and the future of work

The Arab region’s labour markets are undergoing a triple transformation: demographic, digital and green. As this column explains, whether these forces evolve into engines of opportunity or drivers of exclusion for young people will hinge on how swiftly and coherently policy-makers can align education, technology and employment systems to foster adaptive skills, inclusive institutions and innovation-led pathways to decent work.

Digitalising governance in MENA: opportunities for social justice

Can digital governance promote social justice in MENA – or does it risk deepening inequality and exclusion? This column examines the evolution of digital governance in three sub-regions – Egypt, Jordan and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council – highlighting how data practices, transparency mechanisms and citizen trust shape the social outcomes of technological reform.

Wrong finance in a broken multilateral system: red flags from COP30-Belém

With the latest global summit on climate action recently wrapped up, ambitious COP pledges and initiatives continue to miss delivery due to inadequate commitments, weak operationalisation and unclear reporting systems. As this column reports, flows of climate finance remain skewed: loans over grants; climate mitigation more than climate adaptation; and weak accountability across mechanisms. Without grant-based finance, debt relief, climate-adjusted lending and predictable multilateral flows, implementation of promises will fail.

Why political connections are driving business confidence in MENA

This column reports the findings of a new study of how the political ties of firms in the Middle East and North Africa boost business confidence. The research suggests that this optimism is primarily driven by networked access to credit and lobbying, underscoring the need for greater transparency and institutional reform in corporate governance.




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