Economic Research Forum (ERF)

May

Phone surveys alone will not address the Covid-19 data gap in MENA

To respond effectively to the Covid-19 crisis, decision-makers need timely and relevant information. This column discusses the value of phone surveys, which do not require face-to-face interactions and can be deployed rapidly, repeated regularly and adapted swiftly to changing circumstances. But they are not a panacea: there are many more data sources on which governments could be drawing to inform their efforts to save lives and protect livelihoods.

Economic challenges for the GCC countries after Covid-19

Similar to most net oil-producing countries, the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council are affected by two simultaneous shocks: the Covid-19 outbreak and lower oil prices. In response, GCC governments have adopted sizeable stimulus packages to attenuate the negative impact of the crisis, while putting more pressure on their fiscal positions. This column discusses how GCC countries should strike the right balance between supporting economic recovery while ensuring fiscal sustainability and macroeconomic stability.

Daily commuters in Egypt during the Covid-19 pandemic

In an attempt to control the spread of Covid-19, Egypt’s government has implemented social distancing measures that have a particularly direct impact on daily commuters and other mobile workers. This column examines both the health risks and the economic risks facing these individuals, their families and their local communities.

Oil prices: challenges and a way forward for the United Arab Emirates

How should the United Arab Emirates chart a way forward from today’s world of very low oil prices and a deteriorating world economic outlook? This column explores the impact on of current circumstances on UAE economic activity, government spending and the budget deficit. The ultimate goal, the authors conclude, should be to sustain the momentum of further diversification of the economy to reduce oil dependency and hedge against continued fluctuations in oil prices and spillovers from the global economy.

Refugees and asylum-seekers in Egypt in the time of Covid-19

The many refugees and asylum-seekers in Egypt were facing numerous challenges of integration and access to work even before the Covid-19 pandemic. This column outlines their daily struggles for survival, as well as the emerging economic and health risks as a result of the crisis and the policy responses.

Macroeconomic fragility and data transparency in MENA

Many countries in the Middle East and North Africa were facing macroeconomic fragility even before the Covid-19 crisis. This column presents new World Bank analysis of the fiscal sustainability of several MENA countries, with the important caveat that there is a lack of data transparency about stocks of public debt in the region.

Transparency, data gaps and labour market outcomes in MENA

Data on labour market outcomes in many countries in the Middle East and North Africa are often difficult to evaluate. As this column explains, official labour market statistics in the region are typically based on ambiguous definitions, which makes it impossible to replicate them using independent data sources. Moreover, precise definitions are particularly relevant to assess women’s engagement in the labour market and the role of women in the societies of the region.

Covid-19 and trade collapse in Turkey

Turkey had a bad year in 2019 in terms of its foreign trade, which was already lower than 2018 levels owing to the recession with which the country was struggling in the previous year. As this column notes, any further decline in trade would be nothing but disruptive – yet it has happened.

Confronting the Covid-19 pandemic in the Middle East and Central Asia

Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia region have been hit by two large and reinforcing shocks, resulting in significantly weaker growth projections in 2020. This column summarises the International Monetary Fund’s April 2020 Regional Economic Outlook on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the plunge in oil prices; the short- and longer-term policy priorities; and how the IMF is helping the region cope with the crisis.

Data capacity and transparency in MENA: why they might matter for growth

The Middle East and North Africa region has been facing chronic low growth for decades. It is also the only part of the world where statistical capacity and data transparency have fallen since 2005: it now ranks the lowest. This column investigates the potential impact on economic growth – and the particular need for transparency during crises such as the current pandemic.

The uncertain costs of MENA’s dual shock

Countries in the Middle East and North Africa are facing both the Covid-19 pandemic and a collapse in oil prices. Given the unprecedentedly fast-evolving global health crisis and highly volatile oil price, estimating the costs of the dual shock and forecasting economy is challenging. But as this column explains, changes in forecasts can provide some information on the costs of the crises.

Power-sharing, ethnic divisions and the onset of civil wars in Syria

How can Syria’s economy be reconstructed after the civil war? This column outlines key considerations for policy-makers and the international community. Promoting political stability is particularly important to attract foreign investments that would aid the process of restoring the country’s infrastructure.

It’s not too late to find a way out of Lebanon’s financial crisis

Lebanon’s financial crisis developed over a long period of time before shaping into a dollar liquidity shortage from the summer of 2019. This column argues that a key first step in any effective policy response is to separate the government debt problem from the liquidity problem: this way, debt restructuring can proceed without causing more liquidity problems. The country also needs economic growth to begin to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio to a sustainable level.

The Covid-19 pandemic and Egyptian migrant workers

How is the global pandemic affecting the many migrants from Egypt working in Europe, the Gulf and other Arab countries? This column looks at the challenges they are facing as well as their families back home, who are often highly dependent on remittances.

Most read

Egypt’s labour market: new survey data for evidence-based decision-making

As Egypt faces substantial social and economic shifts, understanding the labour market is crucial for designing policies that promote employment and inclusive economic growth. This column introduces the latest wave of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey, which provides fresh, nationally representative data that are vital for examining these dynamics.

The evolution of labour supply in Egypt

Egypt stands at a critical point in its demographic and labour market evolution. As this column explains, while fertility rates have dropped, reducing long-term demographic pressures, the ‘echo generation’, children of the youth bulge, will soon enter the labour market, intensifying the need for policies to accelerate job creation. At the same time, participation in the labour force, particularly among women and young people, is declining, partly as a result of discouragement.

Towards a productive, inclusive and green economy in MENA

Decarbonisation of the global economy is a huge opportunity for countries in the Middle East and North Africa. As this column explains, they can supercharge their development by breaking into fast-growing industries that will help the world to reduce its emissions and reach net zero, as well as offering greater employment opportunities and new export lines. Micro, small and medium enterprises in the region can lead the transition to a cleaner and sustainable future, but this may require the formation of clusters of firms that overcome some of the constraints that their limited size could involve.

Poverty and plutonomy: measuring extreme bipolarisation in the Arab world

Inequality in the Arab world is not just a question of extreme poverty or extreme affluence: it’s about both. This column presents research that uses the lenses of both poverty analysis and plutonomy analysis to capture the extreme polarisation between the poor, who suffer from exclusion and deprivation, and the ultra-wealthy, who wield immense power over economic and political systems.

Participation of Arab countries in global value chains

To what extent are countries in the Arab region participating in the global value chains (GVCs) that now dominate world trade? What are the main determinants of engagement in GVCs? And what are the expected benefits for Arab countries from joining them? This column answers these questions, concluding that it is important to focus on the products in which countries both enjoy a natural comparative advantage and can increase domestic value added in the intermediate and final parts of the production process.

Growth in the Middle East and North Africa

What is the economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa? How is the current conflict centred in Gaza affecting economies in the region? What are the potential long-term effects of conflict on development? And which strategies can MENA countries adopt to accelerate economic growth? This column outlines the findings in the World Bank’s latest half-yearly MENA Economic Update, which answers these questions and more.

The future of regionalism in the Arab world: a political economy view

The potential growth benefits of greater trade integration of the Arab countries, both within the Middle East and with the rest of the world economy, have long been discussed. But as this column explains, in the current climate of international political and economic relations, moves towards trade liberalisation and new or deeper trade agreements are unlikely to happen. Policy-makers in the region need to pursue alternative strategies to develop their economies.

Climate change: a growing threat to sustainable development in Tunisia

Tunisia’s vulnerability to extreme weather events is intensifying, placing immense pressure on vital sectors such as agriculture, energy and water resources, exacerbating inequalities and hindering social progress. This column explores the economic impacts of climate change on the country, its implications for achieving the sustainable development goals, and the urgent need for adaptive strategies and policy interventions.

Rising influence: women’s empowerment within Arab households

In 2016 and again in 2022, a reliable poll of public opinion in the Arab world asked respondents in seven countries whether they agreed with the statement that ‘a man should have final say in all decisions concerning the family’. As this column reports, the changing balance of responses between the two surveys gives an indication of whether there been progress in the distribution of decision-making within households towards greater empowerment of women.

Unleashing the potential of Egyptian exports for sustainable development

Despite several waves of trade liberalisation, Egypt’s integration in the world economy has remained modest. In addition, the structure of its exports has not changed and remains largely dominated by traditional products. This column argues that the government should develop a new export strategy that is forward-looking by taking account not only of the country’s comparative advantage, but also how global demand evolves. The strategy should also be more inclusive and more supportive of sustainable development.




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