Economic Research Forum (ERF)

May

Phone surveys alone will not address the Covid-19 data gap in MENA

To respond effectively to the Covid-19 crisis, decision-makers need timely and relevant information. This column discusses the value of phone surveys, which do not require face-to-face interactions and can be deployed rapidly, repeated regularly and adapted swiftly to changing circumstances. But they are not a panacea: there are many more data sources on which governments could be drawing to inform their efforts to save lives and protect livelihoods.

Economic challenges for the GCC countries after Covid-19

Similar to most net oil-producing countries, the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council are affected by two simultaneous shocks: the Covid-19 outbreak and lower oil prices. In response, GCC governments have adopted sizeable stimulus packages to attenuate the negative impact of the crisis, while putting more pressure on their fiscal positions. This column discusses how GCC countries should strike the right balance between supporting economic recovery while ensuring fiscal sustainability and macroeconomic stability.

Daily commuters in Egypt during the Covid-19 pandemic

In an attempt to control the spread of Covid-19, Egypt’s government has implemented social distancing measures that have a particularly direct impact on daily commuters and other mobile workers. This column examines both the health risks and the economic risks facing these individuals, their families and their local communities.

Oil prices: challenges and a way forward for the United Arab Emirates

How should the United Arab Emirates chart a way forward from today’s world of very low oil prices and a deteriorating world economic outlook? This column explores the impact on of current circumstances on UAE economic activity, government spending and the budget deficit. The ultimate goal, the authors conclude, should be to sustain the momentum of further diversification of the economy to reduce oil dependency and hedge against continued fluctuations in oil prices and spillovers from the global economy.

Refugees and asylum-seekers in Egypt in the time of Covid-19

The many refugees and asylum-seekers in Egypt were facing numerous challenges of integration and access to work even before the Covid-19 pandemic. This column outlines their daily struggles for survival, as well as the emerging economic and health risks as a result of the crisis and the policy responses.

Macroeconomic fragility and data transparency in MENA

Many countries in the Middle East and North Africa were facing macroeconomic fragility even before the Covid-19 crisis. This column presents new World Bank analysis of the fiscal sustainability of several MENA countries, with the important caveat that there is a lack of data transparency about stocks of public debt in the region.

Transparency, data gaps and labour market outcomes in MENA

Data on labour market outcomes in many countries in the Middle East and North Africa are often difficult to evaluate. As this column explains, official labour market statistics in the region are typically based on ambiguous definitions, which makes it impossible to replicate them using independent data sources. Moreover, precise definitions are particularly relevant to assess women’s engagement in the labour market and the role of women in the societies of the region.

Covid-19 and trade collapse in Turkey

Turkey had a bad year in 2019 in terms of its foreign trade, which was already lower than 2018 levels owing to the recession with which the country was struggling in the previous year. As this column notes, any further decline in trade would be nothing but disruptive – yet it has happened.

Confronting the Covid-19 pandemic in the Middle East and Central Asia

Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia region have been hit by two large and reinforcing shocks, resulting in significantly weaker growth projections in 2020. This column summarises the International Monetary Fund’s April 2020 Regional Economic Outlook on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the plunge in oil prices; the short- and longer-term policy priorities; and how the IMF is helping the region cope with the crisis.

Data capacity and transparency in MENA: why they might matter for growth

The Middle East and North Africa region has been facing chronic low growth for decades. It is also the only part of the world where statistical capacity and data transparency have fallen since 2005: it now ranks the lowest. This column investigates the potential impact on economic growth – and the particular need for transparency during crises such as the current pandemic.

The uncertain costs of MENA’s dual shock

Countries in the Middle East and North Africa are facing both the Covid-19 pandemic and a collapse in oil prices. Given the unprecedentedly fast-evolving global health crisis and highly volatile oil price, estimating the costs of the dual shock and forecasting economy is challenging. But as this column explains, changes in forecasts can provide some information on the costs of the crises.

Power-sharing, ethnic divisions and the onset of civil wars in Syria

How can Syria’s economy be reconstructed after the civil war? This column outlines key considerations for policy-makers and the international community. Promoting political stability is particularly important to attract foreign investments that would aid the process of restoring the country’s infrastructure.

It’s not too late to find a way out of Lebanon’s financial crisis

Lebanon’s financial crisis developed over a long period of time before shaping into a dollar liquidity shortage from the summer of 2019. This column argues that a key first step in any effective policy response is to separate the government debt problem from the liquidity problem: this way, debt restructuring can proceed without causing more liquidity problems. The country also needs economic growth to begin to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio to a sustainable level.

The Covid-19 pandemic and Egyptian migrant workers

How is the global pandemic affecting the many migrants from Egypt working in Europe, the Gulf and other Arab countries? This column looks at the challenges they are facing as well as their families back home, who are often highly dependent on remittances.

Most read

Happiness in the Arab world: should we be concerned?

Several Arab countries have low rankings in the latest comparative assessment of average happiness across the world. But as this column explains, the average is not a reliable summary statistic when applied to ordinal data. The evidence from more robust analysis of socio-economic inequality in happiness suggests that policy-makers should be less concerned about happiness indicators than the core development objective of more equitable social conditions for citizens.

It’s too early to tell what happened to the Arab Spring

Did the Arab Spring fail? This column presents a view the consensus view from ERF’s recent annual conference in Morocco: careful analysis of the fundamental drivers of democratic transitions suggests that it’s too early to tell.

Arab regional cooperation in a fragmenting world

As globalisation stalls, regionalisation has emerged as an alternative. This column argues that Arab countries need to face the new realities and move decisively towards greater mutual cooperation. A regional integration agenda that also supports domestic reforms could be an important source of growth, jobs and stability.

Reformed foreign ownership rules in UAE: the impact on business entry

In an effort to stimulate economic growth and diversify the economy, the government of the United Arab Emirates has recently implemented regulatory reform that allows 100% foreign ownership of companies operating in the country. This column examines the implications of the reform for entry of new firms in Dubai, using unique data on new business licences in the emirate.

Self-employment in MENA: the role of religiosity and personal values

How important are individual’s values and beliefs in influencing the likelihood that they will embrace the responsibilities, risks and entrepreneurial challenge of self-employment? This column presents evidence from 12 countries in the Middle East and North African region on the roles of people’s religiosity and sense of personal agency in their labour market choices.

Gender differences in business record-keeping and planning in Iraq

Only one in every ten informal businesses in Iraq is led by a woman. Yet as research summarised in this column reveals, those businesses are more likely to set budgets and sales targets, and to keep business records. This may be evidence of the role of social exclusion in motivating greater reliance on the formal bureaucratic system.

Conflict and debt in the Middle East and North Africa

With the global economy is in its third year of deceleration amid declining inflation and oil prices, the Middle East and North Africa grew by just 1.9% in 2023, with a forecast for growth in 2024 at 2.7%. In addition to heightened uncertainty brought on by the conflict centred in Gaza, many countries in the region are also grappling with pre-existing vulnerabilities, including rising debt levels. This column summarises a new report that unpacks the nature of debt in MENA – and explains the critical importance of keeping rising debt stocks in check.

Making aid-for-trade more effective in the MENA region

Aid-for-trade represents an important opportunity for developing countries to enhance their trade capacities. But the positive effect of aid-for-trade on exports can hinge on the quality of institutions in recipient countries. According to research reported in this column, in the Middle East and North Africa, it is specific aid types – such as aid to support trade policy reform and aid to enhance productive capacities – that matter most for exports.

Sanctions and carbon emissions in Iran

How are Iran’s energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide affected by the imposition of economic sanctions? This column summarises new research that analyses a range of different scenarios and which takes account of multiple economic, social and environmental dimensions, notably what happens to growth and energy intensity, and whether sanctions are lifted.

Can a free trade area in services boost trade within the Arab region?

With trade in goods among Arab countries remaining modest, trade in services could play the pivotal role of an engine of growth in economic integration within the region, as well greater participation in global value chains. This column outlines progress to date and what needs to be done to make a success of AFTAS, the Arab free trade area in services.




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