Economic Research Forum (ERF)

January

Public banks and development in Egypt

In Egypt, the role of public development banks is played by three government-owned commercial banks, namely National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr and Banque du Caire. This column outlines the contributions they have made to the economy in recent times, including maintaining financial stability, promoting small businesses and enhancing financial inclusion. Digitalisation, financing the budget deficit and the aftermath of the pandemic are continuing challenges.

How business survives under sanctions: the experience of Iranian firms

How have firms in Iran responded to the international economic sanctions against the country? This column reports evidence on the operational strategies used by micro, small and medium-sized enterprises to increase their chances of survival.

What will it take to achieve an energy transition in MENA?

An energy transition will require a coordinated global shift in both the supply and demand for fossil fuels and cleaner energy. As explained in this post by the Center for Global Development, multilateral institutions can play an important role, helping to bolster international technology transfers to the Middle East and North Africa, as well as scaling up investment and trade in clean energy to facilitate the global energy transition. Given the potential in the region for solar power, MENA could remain a global hub – but this time for clean energy.

The geography of innovation: evidence from regions in Turkey

To what extent does the concentration of new firms in a region naturally lead to innovation and growth? And when are policy actions needed to stimulate the local economy? This column reports new research on the experiences of Turkey, contrasting the innovative performance of different parts of the country – and exploring the implications for policy to promote local growth.

National economic institutions and participation in the global value chain

The economic institutions of a country – including property rights, business freedom and government integrity – play a central role in determining the extent of its participation in the global value chain. This column reports new research findings on associations between eight economic institutions and integration into international trade networks in a number of countries in the Middle East and North Africa.

The environmental impact of foreign direct investment in MENA

Are countries in the Middle East and North Africa ‘pollution havens’ when it comes to foreign direct investment (FDI) – or do they merit a ‘pollution halo’? This column reports evidence on how the quality of economies’ institutions and human capital influences the environmental impact of FDI.

The historical roots of state weakness and social inequities in Lebanon

After the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and through the interwar period, Lebanon and much of modern Syria were administered under what was known as the French Mandate. This column explores the legacy of the arrangement, concluding that it had a highly negative impact on the post-independence economic, political, and social development of Lebanon.

Making macroeconomic policy more job-friendly: the case of Egypt

The Egyptian economy suffers from both several structural imbalances and recent cyclical developments, which have exacerbated the negative impact of the pandemic on the labour market. This column explains why deep structural reforms are needed to make it possible to create more and better jobs.

Most read

Happiness in the Arab world: should we be concerned?

Several Arab countries have low rankings in the latest comparative assessment of average happiness across the world. But as this column explains, the average is not a reliable summary statistic when applied to ordinal data. The evidence from more robust analysis of socio-economic inequality in happiness suggests that policy-makers should be less concerned about happiness indicators than the core development objective of more equitable social conditions for citizens.

It’s too early to tell what happened to the Arab Spring

Did the Arab Spring fail? This column presents a view the consensus view from ERF’s recent annual conference in Morocco: careful analysis of the fundamental drivers of democratic transitions suggests that it’s too early to tell.

Arab regional cooperation in a fragmenting world

As globalisation stalls, regionalisation has emerged as an alternative. This column argues that Arab countries need to face the new realities and move decisively towards greater mutual cooperation. A regional integration agenda that also supports domestic reforms could be an important source of growth, jobs and stability.

Reformed foreign ownership rules in UAE: the impact on business entry

In an effort to stimulate economic growth and diversify the economy, the government of the United Arab Emirates has recently implemented regulatory reform that allows 100% foreign ownership of companies operating in the country. This column examines the implications of the reform for entry of new firms in Dubai, using unique data on new business licences in the emirate.

Self-employment in MENA: the role of religiosity and personal values

How important are individual’s values and beliefs in influencing the likelihood that they will embrace the responsibilities, risks and entrepreneurial challenge of self-employment? This column presents evidence from 12 countries in the Middle East and North African region on the roles of people’s religiosity and sense of personal agency in their labour market choices.

Gender differences in business record-keeping and planning in Iraq

Only one in every ten informal businesses in Iraq is led by a woman. Yet as research summarised in this column reveals, those businesses are more likely to set budgets and sales targets, and to keep business records. This may be evidence of the role of social exclusion in motivating greater reliance on the formal bureaucratic system.

Conflict and debt in the Middle East and North Africa

With the global economy is in its third year of deceleration amid declining inflation and oil prices, the Middle East and North Africa grew by just 1.9% in 2023, with a forecast for growth in 2024 at 2.7%. In addition to heightened uncertainty brought on by the conflict centred in Gaza, many countries in the region are also grappling with pre-existing vulnerabilities, including rising debt levels. This column summarises a new report that unpacks the nature of debt in MENA – and explains the critical importance of keeping rising debt stocks in check.

Making aid-for-trade more effective in the MENA region

Aid-for-trade represents an important opportunity for developing countries to enhance their trade capacities. But the positive effect of aid-for-trade on exports can hinge on the quality of institutions in recipient countries. According to research reported in this column, in the Middle East and North Africa, it is specific aid types – such as aid to support trade policy reform and aid to enhance productive capacities – that matter most for exports.

Sanctions and carbon emissions in Iran

How are Iran’s energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide affected by the imposition of economic sanctions? This column summarises new research that analyses a range of different scenarios and which takes account of multiple economic, social and environmental dimensions, notably what happens to growth and energy intensity, and whether sanctions are lifted.

Can a free trade area in services boost trade within the Arab region?

With trade in goods among Arab countries remaining modest, trade in services could play the pivotal role of an engine of growth in economic integration within the region, as well greater participation in global value chains. This column outlines progress to date and what needs to be done to make a success of AFTAS, the Arab free trade area in services.




LinkedIn