Economic Research Forum (ERF)

October

Trade policy options to improve Palestine’s food security

Palestine’s limited access to international markets and trade disruptions caused by Israeli closures create food shortages as well as surges in prices across the Palestinian territories. For healthier relations between Israel and Palestine, new arrangements are needed to pave the way to a sovereign Palestinian state with full control over its territory and trade policies. This column reports research simulating different trade policies in a future sovereign Palestinian state and assesses which policy options would improve food security in the West Bank.

Chronic illness and the labour market in Arab countries

Chronic illnesses are widespread in the Arab countries – and they have damaging consequences for labour market participation and wider economic performance. Drawing on evidence from Egypt and Tunisia, this column proposes a package of practical actions to protect workers from becoming victims of chronic diseases – and to reduce the losses of income, labour supply and labour productivity.

Human capital and regional disparities in Turkey

Turkey has a longstanding problem of uneven economic development across its regions. This column explores the interactions between the market access of central and remote parts of the country, the varying levels of human capital accumulation in those places, and the wage returns to education. The research evidence indicates the potential of regional policy to reduce inequalities.

Structural transformation in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia

Despite considerable economic progress before 1990, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia all experienced ‘premature deindustrialisation’ and unfinished structural transformation. This column looks back at structural change in these three countries over the past half a century and draws lessons for today on how to unleash their productive potential. In short, an effective industrial policy is needed.

Extreme poverty in Arab states: a growing cause for concern

Extreme poverty is rising in Arab states and the outlook is concerning. This column outlines the latest figures and the implications for policies to promote inclusive and sustainable development in the region.

Exchange rate policies and external public debt in the MENA region

Emerging economies are often subject to currency crises and foreign debt crises around the same time. This column explores the links between these phenomena in five MENA economies – Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey – and the current sustainability of fiscal and exchange rate policies in these countries.

The investment decisions of Arab sovereign wealth funds

What are the key objectives of the sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) of Arab countries? This column presents the results of new quantitative analysis, which reveals that these institutions typically pursue a top-down investment strategy in which they first screen target countries or jurisdictions, then target sectors and finally target businesses. In the risk-return trade-off, Arab SWFs seem to put significantly more weight on risk mitigation than on returns.

Turkey’s reversal of fortune

Recent changes in Turkey’s economic, social and political environment have not only failed to generate the potential for sustainable growth, but they have also made the country prone to both economic and social crises. This column outlines what lies behind the reversal of fortune – and what needs to be done to get back on a sustainable development track.

Rethinking the state’s role in Arab economies

The Arab world's state-led development model may be set to reach a breaking point, as hundreds of millions of young people prepare to enter the labour market in the coming decades. This Project Syndicate column argues that with the public sector unlikely to be able to absorb these new workers, there is an urgent need to create a dynamic and competitive private sector.

Oil prices and the performance of UAE banks

The fall in the oil price to a ‘new normal’ has had a negative impact on four indicators of banks’ performance in the United Arab Emirates (UAE): return on assets; return on equity; and growth of credit and deposits. This column uses data on 22 national banks to examine differences in performance between conventional and Islamic banks, and outlines measures to improve the banking sector’s resilience and profitability.

Galal Amin and the Egyptian middle class

A sense of ‘defeat’ among the Egyptian middle class was the main motivation for the uprising of 25 January 2011. In a tribute to economics professor Galal Amin, who passed away last month, this column explores what his analysis would suggest lay behind that feeling. The main culprit is the pursuit of stabilisation at any cost: macroeconomic stability rarely translates into more investment and better-quality jobs; liberalisation typically leads to crony capitalism and greater inequality; and it is the poor and the middle class who experience the pain.

Most read

How trade policy can reduce MENA’s cereal import vulnerability

Heavy dependence on imported cereals, combined with climate change, water scarcity and geopolitical uncertainty, continues to threaten food resilience across MENA. This column explains how an inclusive trade policy can play a key role in making the region’s food security less vulnerable to shocks.

Digitalisation, global value chains and regional integration in MENA & SSA

Participation in global value chains is vital for countries pursuing structural transformation and inclusive economic development. This column summarises new evidence on how much production processes have been globalised in Africa and the Middle East relative to other regions; whether this process has taken place with partners within or outside the region; and whether it has taken place more in manufacturing or services.

Financing Lebanon’s Reconstruction: A Compact for Finance, Governance, and Accountability

As Lebanon embarks on another round of reconstruction, the key question is not how much financing can be mobilised, but whether each commitment is linked to a verified need, involves a transparent procurement process, is linked to clearly defined executing and operating institutions, and is based on a liability that is in line with the state’s ability to repay. This column proposes an operational mechanism for establishing that connection: a Reconstruction Finance and Accountability Compact.

The risks of a two-speed AI economy in MENA

Much of the debate about artificial intelligence in the Middle East and North Africa focuses on how many jobs it will replace. As this column explains, the more important challenge is that the new technology is likely to create a two-speed labour market, where countries with the capacity to invest in digital infrastructure and skills move rapidly ahead while others struggle to keep pace. Unless governments combine credible national reforms with targeted regional cooperation, AI could widen, not reduce, the economic divides across MENA.

Sanctions and conflict: why corruption changes the equation

Why do sanctions produce such different political outcomes across the countries that have been targeted? This column reports research examining the role of pre-existing corruption in shaping the relationship between sanctions and subsequent conflict or political instability. The evidence indicates that trade sanctions are associated with higher conflict-related deaths where pre-existing corruption is high.

The weak bread chain: cereal supply risks in six MENA economies

The Middle East and North Africa is one of the most food-import-dependent regions of the world, particularly for staple cereals such as barley, maize and wheat, and particularly in six countries – Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia. As this column reports, diversifying import sources has become an essential strategy for strengthening food security and improving resilience to geopolitical and climate-related disruptions.

From mega-investment to mega-productivity: closing MENA’s conversion gap

Across the Middle East and North Africa, governments are investing heavily in infrastructure, technology, diversification and new industries. Yet capital accumulation alone does not guarantee productivity growth. As this column argues, the region’s deeper challenge is its ‘investment-to-productivity conversion gap’: ensuring that large-scale investment translates consistently into stronger firms, technological diffusion, skills and better jobs. A different metric of success is required: not how much capital is deployed, but how much productive capability that capital leaves behind.

Why energy efficiency still struggles to attract finance in Egypt

Egypt has reduced energy subsidies and gradually adjusted domestic energy prices toward cost-recovery levels, improving the economic case for energy efficiency investments – but financing has not kept pace. Drawing on structured interviews with banks, developers and public officials, this column traces why energy efficiency projects in the country still struggle to attract capital, and sets out how a ‘financing ladder’ used elsewhere – from revolving funds to risk guarantees to green bonds – could close the gap.

Iran is still selling oil. But can it replace tomorrow’s barrels?

Iran’s oil exports have not disappeared, but continued sales may hide a deeper vulnerability. Arash Irani argues that selling barrels already in the logistics system is not the same as generating new export flows, and proposes five indicators to help policymakers judge whether trade under disruption is sustainable or merely running down its stocks.

The political economy of turning AI adoption into firm productivity in MENA

Generative AI can make individual tasks faster without making firms more productive. This column argues that across the Middle East and North Africa, turning AI adoption into better performance depends on organisational capabilities and on agreements within firms over authority, workloads and rewards. Public support can help by financing those capabilities through transparent selection, milestone-based assistance and independent evaluation.




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