Economic Research Forum (ERF)

April

New firms and economic geography in Turkey

The Turkish economy is characterised by considerable regional disparities, including big differences in the willingness of new firms to locate in different parts of the country. This column reports research evidence that there is also spatial variation in the factors that can boost local economic activity and contribute to a smoothing of economic geography across Turkey’s western and eastern regions.

Raising Egypt’s minimum wage: the impact on inequality

Since the majority of Egypt’s labour force is in the informal sector, where three quarters of workers earn less than the minimum wage, the recent increase will not benefit them. Indeed, as research reported in this column shows, it will lead to a rise in inequality. A better policy option would be to implement self-targeted public works programmes similar to those supported by India’s National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, which push up the informal sector’s ‘effective’ minimum wage, thereby reducing both wage inequality and some of the precarious nature of informal jobs.

Self-selection of emigrants by cultural traits: MENA evidence

What are the relationships between people’s cultural traits and their aspirations to emigrate? This column explores whether emigrants from countries in the Middle East and North Africa self-select on the basis of their religiosity and their attitudes towards women’s rights – two cultural traits that are correlated with economic outcomes and on which there are considerable contrasts within the MENA region.

Sustainability of GCC development under the new global oil order

It is now a widely held view that the price of oil will eventually be converging to a lower long-term trend. Together with growing demands for political change in the MENA region, this implies the need for many countries to reconsider their growth models and their underlying social contract. This column considers the implications for the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

MENA Generation 2030: Prospects for a demographic dividend

UNICEF’s new report, MENA Generation 2030, focuses on ‘investing in children and youth today to secure a prosperous region tomorrow’. This column discusses the prospects for a ‘demographic dividend’ in the region with the growing share of the working age population in the total population. The authors explore the barriers that impede realisation of the potential benefits and the policy actions that need to be implemented urgently. As the report underlines, the time to act is now.

Palestinians working in Israel: the impact on West Bank food security

Employment of Palestinians in Israel is one of the special features of the labour markets in the West Bank. But this employment is volatile as closures and regulations administered by the Israeli authorities control Palestinians’ access. This column reports research simulating different levels of the employment of Palestinian labour in Israel and assesses their implications for food security in the West Bank.

Exports and innovation in the MENA region: when skills matter

Firms that want to start exporting have to be able to innovate and upgrade their use of technology in the face of fierce competition in international markets. As this column explains, highly skilled production and non-production workers are essential. In other words, engaging in international trade creates the need for a bias towards skills.

Africa youth leadership: building local leaders to solve global challenges

Accountable leadership is one of the biggest challenges to development in Africa. This Brookings column argues that the young people of the continent need to take more places in presidencies, councils of ministers, parliaments, national committees, corporate boardrooms and civil society.

Recent financial and debt crises: is the MENA region immune?

How vulnerable is the MENA region to a ‘sudden stop’ in capital inflows and the potential for associated financial and debt crises? This column outlines the risks and the appropriate policy responses.

The economic and social transformation of the Middle East and North Africa

The crises that began with the Arab revolts signal the urgent need for economic and social transformation in the Middle East and North Africa. Yet there has been near universal failure to implement the structural reforms required to transform hidebound, state-dominated economies into modern ones that embrace technology and recognise the salutary impact of competition and private enterprise. This column outlines what has to change.

Most read

Sanctions and the shrinking size of Iran’s middle class

International sanctions imposed on Iran from 2012 have reduced the size of the country’s middle class, according to new research summarised in this column. The findings highlight the profound social consequences of economic pressure, not least given the crucial role of that segment of society for national innovation, growth and stability. The study underscores the need for policies to safeguard the civilian population in countries targeted by sanctions.

Artificial intelligence and the renewable energy transition in MENA

Artificial intelligence has the potential to bridge the gap between abundant natural resources and the pressing need for reliable, sustainable power in the Middle East and North Africa. This column outlines the constraints and proposes policies that can address the challenges of variability of renewable resources and stress on power grids, and support the transformation of ‘sunlight’ to ‘smart power’.

Green jobs for MENA in the age of AI: crafting a sustainable labour market

Arab economies face a dual transformation: the decarbonisation imperative driven by climate change; and the rapid digitalisation brought by artificial intelligence. This column argues that by strategically managing the green-AI nexus, policy-makers in the region can position their countries not merely as followers adapting to global mandates but as leaders in sustainable innovation.

Egypt’s forgotten democratisation: a challenge to modern myths about MENA

A widely held narrative asserts that countries in the Middle East are inevitably authoritarian. This column reports new research that tracks Egyptian parliamentarians since 1824 to reveal that the region’s struggle with democracy is not in fact about cultural incompatibility: it’s about colonialism disrupting home-grown democratic movements and elite conflicts being resolved through disenfranchisement rather than power-sharing.

MENA integration into global value chains and sustainable development

Despite the geopolitical advantages, abundant natural resources and young populations of many countries in the Middle East and North Africa, they remain on the periphery of global value chains, the international networks of production and service activities that now dominate the world economy. This column explains the positive impact of integration into GVCs on exports and employment; its role in technology transfer and capacity upgrading; and the structural barriers that constrain the region’s involvement. Greater GVC participation can help to deliver structural transformation and sustainable development.

Arab youth and the future of work

The Arab region’s labour markets are undergoing a triple transformation: demographic, digital and green. As this column explains, whether these forces evolve into engines of opportunity or drivers of exclusion for young people will hinge on how swiftly and coherently policy-makers can align education, technology and employment systems to foster adaptive skills, inclusive institutions and innovation-led pathways to decent work.

Wrong finance in a broken multilateral system: red flags from COP30-Belém

With the latest global summit on climate action recently wrapped up, ambitious COP pledges and initiatives continue to miss delivery due to inadequate commitments, weak operationalisation and unclear reporting systems. As this column reports, flows of climate finance remain skewed: loans over grants; climate mitigation more than climate adaptation; and weak accountability across mechanisms. Without grant-based finance, debt relief, climate-adjusted lending and predictable multilateral flows, implementation of promises will fail.

Why political connections are driving business confidence in MENA

This column reports the findings of a new study of how the political ties of firms in the Middle East and North Africa boost business confidence. The research suggests that this optimism is primarily driven by networked access to credit and lobbying, underscoring the need for greater transparency and institutional reform in corporate governance.

Digitalising governance in MENA: opportunities for social justice

Can digital governance promote social justice in MENA – or does it risk deepening inequality and exclusion? This column examines the evolution of digital governance in three sub-regions – Egypt, Jordan and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council – highlighting how data practices, transparency mechanisms and citizen trust shape the social outcomes of technological reform.




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