Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Making macroeconomic policy more job-friendly: the case of Egypt

2734
The Egyptian economy suffers from both several structural imbalances and recent cyclical developments, which have exacerbated the negative impact of the pandemic on the labour market. This column explains why deep structural reforms are needed to make it possible to create more and better jobs.

In a nutshell

Macroeconomic developments, which have made Egypt’s economy relatively less resilient, explain why, at the microeconomic level, the quantity and quality of jobs created after the pandemic have been rather modest.

The floating exchange rate regime introduced in October 2022 must be made more sustainable in the medium term to avoid overvaluation of the Egyptian pound and to reduce the burden on the real sector, which has to adjust to keep the currency stable.

More reforms are needed to foster and diversify domestic production, and to remove administrative and unjustified non-tariff measures that affect exports and therefore production and job creation.

As a result of the pandemic and its consequences, global gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 3.6% in 2020 compared with 2019. Yet at the macroeconomic level, some countries in the Middle East and North Africa region, such as Egypt, have been more resilient than others. In fact, the country’s growth rate in fiscal year 2020 reached 3.6%.

Despite Egypt’s macroeconomic resilience, thanks to different stabilisation policies adopted between 2014 and 2016, most of its structural problems at both the macroeconomic and microeconomic levels have not been addressed. This has affected the ability of the economy to generate jobs and to have more sustainable economic growth (Amer et al, 2021).

At the macroeconomic level, five main challenges can be identified, three of which are structural in nature while the other two are cyclical.

First, economic growth is chiefly led by capital-intensive sectors such as petroleum, construction and telecommunications, each of which have had significant growth rates following the pandemic, at the expense of the non-oil manufacturing sector and tourism. The latter were strongly affected by the disruption in supply chains as well as the decrease in exports and investment. This explains why even after the recovery from the pandemic, newly created jobs were rather modest.

The second structural obstacle is the crowding-out effect associated with the increase in domestic credit provided by financial institutions to the government and the decrease for that in the private sector between 2010 and 2020. The increase in domestic credit provided to the government by the financial sector (from 64% in 2017 to 67% in 2020) was associated with a simultaneous decrease in credit to the private sector (21%, down from 24% over the same period). Such government credit was mainly used to finance the fiscal deficit and the domestic debt (due to expansionary fiscal policies).

Third, with the deteriorating investment climate (resulting from practices in the informal sector, corruption, tax administration, tax rates, and customs and trade regulations), domestic investment is far from reaching its potential contribution to growth and employment.

At the cyclical level, exports and investment have been volatile due to lower demand from Egypt’s main trade partners (mainly European and Arab countries) following the pandemic.

Moreover, external debt has been rising substantially with the decrease in foreign reserves, adding more pressure on Egypt’s foreign currency already affected by the decrease in tourism, exports and foreign direct investment (FDI). Indeed, the share of external debt in national income increased from 21.1% in 2016 to 37.2% in 2020. In addition, between 2019 and 2020, the share of short-term debt to foreign reserves increased from 20.7 to 30.7%, putting further pressure on Egypt’s foreign currency (already hit by the decrease in tourism, exports and FDI).

Such macroeconomic developments, which have made the economy relatively less resilient, explain why, at the microeconomic level, the quantity and quality of jobs created after the pandemic have been rather modest.

Policy implications

While different macro-stabilisation programmes have made the Egyptian economy resilient during the pandemic, they have not helped to address the deep-rooted causes of Egypt’s structural problems related to employment and inclusive growth. This suggests the need to shift the focus onto more structural policies rather than stabilisation policies. This includes a special focus on the following policies.

A consistent industrial policy

Reforms must be directed towards labour-intensive sectors in order to create more jobs (especially for women and young people) and thus stimulate the economy. What’s more, to increase both domestic and foreign investment, enhancing the business climate – along with facilitating access to finance, competition, land and energy, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises – should remain at the top of the reform agenda.

A fairer competition policy

There is a need to develop a transparent state ownership policy and governance framework to enable the private sector to make informed investment decisions and reduce uncertainty. It is also crucial to separate the commercial and non-commercial activities of state actors, and to require that state-owned enterprises recover fully the cost of commercial activities (Youssef and Zaki, 2022). In addition, there is an urgent need to separate the roles of state actors as regulators from operators to resolve potential conflicts of interest.

Creating fiscal space for financing universal and adequate social protection

Creating fiscal space for social protection is a key factor not only towards building universal, comprehensive and sustainable social protection systems but also ensuring adequate social protection benefits for all (especially vulnerable groups including migrants and refugees), in accordance with social security standards of the International Labour Organization (ILO), as well as the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable. Countries need to invest more and better in social protection, on the basis of principles of universality, adequacy, sustainability and solidarity.

A more pro-active social policy

While the social measures implemented in response to the pandemic can help to reduce its negative effects on vulnerable categories, social policies remain largely reactive not pro-active. More pro-active policies that provide workers with social security and help them being promoted to get out of vulnerability are necessary. In addition, it is desirable to adopt a more bottom-up approach where social partners and civil society organisations participate in both the design and implementation of different policies.

A more sustainable exchange rate policy

The Central Bank of Egypt announced the adoption of a free-floating exchange rate regime in October 2022 as one of the conditions of the recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan. This policy must be made more sustainable in the medium term to avoid overvaluation of the Egyptian pound and to reduce the burden on the real sector, which has to adjust to keep the currency stable. While this is necessary to improve the competitiveness of exports, more reforms are needed to foster and diversify domestic production, and to remove administrative and unjustified non-tariff measures that affect exports and therefore production and job creation (Youssef and Zaki, 2019).

Further reading

Amer, Mona, Irene Selwaness and Chahir Zaki (2021) ‘Patterns of economic growth and labor market vulnerability in Egypt’, in Regional Report on Jobs and Growth in North Africa 2020 edited by Ragui Assaad and Mohamed Ali Marouani, International Labour Organization and ERF.

Krafft, Caroline, Ragui Assaad and Mohamed Ali Marouani (2021) ‘The Impact of COVID-19 on Middle Eastern and North African Labor Markets: Glimmers of Progress but Persistent Problems for Vulnerable Workers a Year into the Pandemic’, ERF Policy Brief No. 57.

Said, M, and Chahir Zaki (2022) ‘Growth and employment through the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of Egypt’, in Second Report on Jobs and Growth in North Africa and Sudan (2021-2022) edited by Ragui Assaad and Mohamed Ali Marouani, International Labour Organization and ERF.

Youssef, Hoda, and Chahir Zaki (2019) ‘From Currency Depreciation to Trade Reform: How to Take Egyptian Exports to New Levels?’, Policy Research Working Paper No. 8809, World Bank.

Youssef, Jala, and Chahir Zaki (2022) ‘A Decade of Competition Policy in Arab Countries: A De jure and De facto Assessment’, International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies.

Most read

Trust in Lebanon’s public institutions: a challenge for the new leadership

Lebanon’s new leadership confronts daunting economic challenges amid geopolitical tensions across the wider region. As this column explains, understanding what has happened over the past decade to citizens’ trust in key public institutions – parliament, the government and the armed forces – will be a crucial part of the policy response.

Qatarisation: playing the long game on workforce nationalisation

As national populations across the Gulf have grown and hydrocarbon reserves declined, most Gulf countries have sought to move to a more sustainable economic model underpinned by raising the share of citizens in the productive private sector. But, as this column explains, Qatar differs from its neighbours in several important ways that could render aggressive workforce nationalization policies counterproductive. In terms of such policies, the country should chart its own path.

Small businesses in the Great Lockdown: lessons for crisis management

Understanding big economic shocks like Covid-19 and how firms respond to them is crucial for mitigating their negative effects and accelerating the post-crisis recovery. This column reports evidence on how small and medium-sized enterprises in Tunisia’s formal business sector adapted to the pandemic and the lockdown – and draws policy lessons for when the next crisis hits.

Economic consequences of the 2003 Bam earthquake in Iran

Over the decades, Iran has faced numerous devastating natural disasters, including the deadly 2003 Bam earthquake. This column reports evidence on the unexpected economic boost in Bam County and its neighbours after the disaster – the result of a variety of factors, including national and international aid, political mobilisation and the region’s cultural significance. Using data on the intensity of night-time lights in a geographical area, the research reveals how disaster recovery may lead to a surprising economic rebound.

The impact of climate change and resource scarcity on conflict in MENA

The interrelationships between climate change, food production, economic instability and violent conflict have become increasingly relevant in recent decades, with climate-induced economic shocks intensifying social and political tensions, particularly in resource-constrained regions like MENA. This column reports new evidence on the impact of climate change on economic and food production outcomes – and how economic stability, agricultural productivity and shared water resources affect conflict. While international aid, economic growth and food security reduce the likelihood of conflict, resource scarcity and shared water basins contribute to high risks of conflict.

Qatar’s pursuit of government excellence: promises and pitfalls

As Qatar seeks to make the transition from a hydrocarbon-based economy to a diversified, knowledge-based economy, ‘government excellence’ has been identified as a key strategic objective. This column reports what government effectiveness means in terms of delivery of public services, digitalisation of services, and control of corruption – and outlines the progress made to date on these development priorities and what the country needs to do to meet its targets.

A Macroeconomic Accounting of Unemployment in Jordan:  Unemployment is mainly an issue for adults and men

Since unemployment rates in Jordan are higher among young people and women than other groups, unemployment is commonly characterised as a youth and gender issue. However, the majority of the country’s unemployed are adults and men. This suggests that unemployment is primarily a macroeconomic issue challenge for the entire labour market. The appropriate response therefore is coordinated fiscal, monetary, structural and institutional policies, while more targeted measures can still benefit specific groups.

The green energy transition: employment pathways for MENA

The potential employment impacts of green and renewable energy in the Middle East and North Africa are multifaceted and promising. As this column explains, embracing renewable energy technologies presents an opportunity for the region to diversify its economy, mitigate the possible negative impacts of digitalisation on existing jobs, reduce its carbon footprint and create significant levels of employment across a variety of sectors. Green energy is not just an environmental imperative but an economic necessity.

Global value chains, wages and skills in MENA countries

The involvement of firms in production across different countries or regions via global value chains (GVCs) can make a significant contribution to economic development, including improved labour market outcomes. This column highlights the gains from GVC participation in terms of employment quality in Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia. Given the high unemployment, sticky wages and wide skill divides that are common in the MENA region, encouraging firms to participate in GVCs is a valuable channel for raising living standards.

Tunisia’s energy transition: the key role of small businesses

Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) play a critical role in Tunisia’s economy, contributing significantly to GDP and employment. As this column explains, they are also essential for advancing the country’s ambitions to make a successful transition from reliance on fossil fuels to more widespread use of renewable energy sources. A fair distribution of the transition’s benefits across all regions and communities will secure a future where MSMEs thrive as leaders in a prosperous, inclusive and sustainable Tunisia.