Economic Research Forum (ERF)

December

Covid-19, trust and rising economic challenges in the Arab world

There is a common view that managing Covid-19 is all about making a trade-off between lives and livelihoods. But as this column explains, comparing global performance, countries have tended to do well, or not, on both health and economics simultaneously. A key correlate of successful country performance is a high level of trust in government, which makes compliance with public health and social measures more efficient – and therefore minimises economic casualty.

The Middle East and North Africa and Covid-19: gearing up for the long haul

The global pandemic is likely to affect the Middle East and North Africa directly for several years to come and indirectly for even longer. Yet as this Brookings column argues, countries in the region can emerge both better able to prevent such disasters in the future and with a set of more agile and responsive institutions that will help them to tackle other pernicious development challenges.

Bottom incomes and the measurement of poverty and inequality

With negative and zero incomes being widely reported in household surveys, it is essential to understanding who is reporting them in order to generate a consistent ordering among households, and measure poverty and inequality accurately. This column summaries evidence from an investigation of the prevalence and consequences of non-positive incomes using 57 harmonised surveys covering 12 Mediterranean countries over the period 1995-2016.

Broadband: is MENA ready?

To what extent is broadband in the Middle East and North Africa affordable, accessible and supportive of innovation? This column reviews the region’s digital readiness as reflected in the quality of broadband networks and their affordability, accessibility and usage.

Remote work and women’s employment in MENA: opportunity or pitfall?

Many women in the Middle East and North Africa are not in the paid labour force despite being highly educated. Good internet access and the global shift to telework as a result of the pandemic would seem to offer them opportunities for work and greater gender equality. But as this column warns, while online employment lowers barriers to getting women into paid work, it may fail to alter the unequal gender relations that underpin women’s reluctance to enter the paid labour force.

Tunisia’s experiences with industrial policy and export diversification

What has been the role of industrial policy in Tunisia’s export diversification of the past 25 years? This column reports research evidence on the dynamics of diversification since 1995 for primary and resource-based products as well as manufactured products. The authors show that contrary to the conventional view that the country has achieved limited success in moving up the technological ladder in terms of the diversification and sophistication of its exports, there has been extensive progress.

A stability mechanism for the Gulf countries

Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates face the dual shock of the pandemic and the oil price collapse. Drawing lessons from the European Union’s response to its sovereign debt crisis, this column proposes a stability mechanism for the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council aimed at institutionalising solidarity and fiscal discipline among them. The mechanism would issue some special obligations and lend the proceeds at low rates to its members, requiring them to undertake economic reforms in return.

Most read

Empowering Egypt’s young people for the future of work

Egypt’s most urgent priority is creating more and better jobs for its growing youth population. This column reports on the first Development Dialogue, an ERF–World Bank joint initiative, which brought together students, scholars, policy-makers and private sector leaders at Cairo University to confront the country’s labour market challenge. The conversation explored why youth inclusion matters, what the data show and how dialogue and the forthcoming Country Economic Memorandum can inform practical pathways to accelerate job creation.

Preparing youth for the workforce of the future

As economies undergo rapid digital and green transformations, young people face a growing mismatch between their skills and what the modern labour market needs. This column argues that enabling youth to compete in the workforce of the future requires systemic reforms in education, skills formation and labour market institutions, especially in developing economies.

Connectivity and conflict: understanding the risks of inequality in the Middle East

While high inequality does not always lead to conflict, new research reported in this column shows that widespread internet access acts as a catalyst, transforming economic grievances into political instability. For policy-makers in the Middle East and North Africa, this means that as digital connectivity expands, the security costs of ignoring economic disparities rise dramatically. The combination of idle youth, high inequality and high-speed internet is a volatile mix.

The political economy of stalled structural reforms in MENA

There is a persistent pattern to the structural reforms that are required to underpin economic progress in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa: ambitious strategies are announced and partially implemented, but ultimately they are diluted or reversed. This column argues that the repeated stalling of reform is not primarily a failure of economic design. Rather, it reflects deep-seated political economy constraints rooted in rent dependence, elite bargaining and weak institutional credibility. Without addressing these underlying dynamics, reform efforts are likely to remain symbolic rather than transformative.

Closing the gender gap in political participation in MENA

Women across the Middle East and North Africa participate less than men in politics – not only in political parties and elections, but also in petitions, boycotts, protests and strikes. This column reports evidence from ten countries showing that differences in education, employment and political attitudes explain part of this disparity, yet a significant gender gap remains.




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