Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Aitor Erce

Author

Aitor Erce
Independent Research and Policy Advisor

Aitor Erce works as an independent research and policy advisor. He is currently a Visiting Fellow at LUISS. Previously, Aitor worked for six years as Principal Economist at the European Stability Mechanism, where he managed the ESM´s Working Paper Series, and seven years as Research Economist at the Bank of Spain´s General Directorate of International Affairs. Aitor has been involved in the evaluation and design of international financial policies related to sovereign debt restructuring and official lending programs. He also contributed to the development of tools for debt sustainability analysis and for detecting risks to market access. He holds an MSc from CEMFI and a PhD from the European University Institute. Aitor is an associate researcher with the Dallas Fed’s Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute and with Warwick University’s IMF Research Network.

Content by this Author

A stability mechanism for the Gulf countries

Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates face the dual shock of the pandemic and the oil price collapse. Drawing lessons from the European Union’s response to its sovereign debt crisis, this column proposes a stability mechanism for the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council aimed at institutionalising solidarity and fiscal discipline among them. The mechanism would issue some special obligations and lend the proceeds at low rates to its members, requiring them to undertake economic reforms in return.

Most read

Private capital and financial innovation in Egypt’s clean energy transition

The Benban Solar Park, Africa’s biggest photovoltaic power station, demonstrates Egypt’s ability to attract foreign investment, implement complex infrastructure projects and align its energy goals with environmental sustainability. As this column explains, the next stage of the country’s clean energy transition requires a diversified financial ecosystem, together with committed and well-coordinated policy support.

The rising threat of water and food insecurity in MENA

The Middle East and North Africa is rapidly becoming the global epicentre of water and food insecurity. Drawing on regional evidence and global comparisons, this column identifies urgent priorities and offers policy strategies to strengthen resilience in this particularly climate-stressed part of the world before the crisis deepens further. The tools exist: what is needed is the political will and coordinated action to use them.

Sanctions and the shrinking size of Iran’s middle class

International sanctions imposed on Iran from 2012 have reduced the size of the country’s middle class, according to new research summarised in this column. The findings highlight the profound social consequences of economic pressure, not least given the crucial role of that segment of society for national innovation, growth and stability. The study underscores the need for policies to safeguard the civilian population in countries targeted by sanctions.

Artificial intelligence and the renewable energy transition in MENA

Artificial intelligence has the potential to bridge the gap between abundant natural resources and the pressing need for reliable, sustainable power in the Middle East and North Africa. This column outlines the constraints and proposes policies that can address the challenges of variability of renewable resources and stress on power grids, and support the transformation of ‘sunlight’ to ‘smart power’.

MENA integration into global value chains and sustainable development

Despite the geopolitical advantages, abundant natural resources and young populations of many countries in the Middle East and North Africa, they remain on the periphery of global value chains, the international networks of production and service activities that now dominate the world economy. This column explains the positive impact of integration into GVCs on exports and employment; its role in technology transfer and capacity upgrading; and the structural barriers that constrain the region’s involvement. Greater GVC participation can help to deliver structural transformation and sustainable development.

Green jobs for MENA in the age of AI: crafting a sustainable labour market

Arab economies face a dual transformation: the decarbonisation imperative driven by climate change; and the rapid digitalisation brought by artificial intelligence. This column argues that by strategically managing the green-AI nexus, policy-makers in the region can position their countries not merely as followers adapting to global mandates but as leaders in sustainable innovation.

Egypt’s forgotten democratisation: a challenge to modern myths about MENA

A widely held narrative asserts that countries in the Middle East are inevitably authoritarian. This column reports new research that tracks Egyptian parliamentarians since 1824 to reveal that the region’s struggle with democracy is not in fact about cultural incompatibility: it’s about colonialism disrupting home-grown democratic movements and elite conflicts being resolved through disenfranchisement rather than power-sharing.




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