Economic Research Forum (ERF)

April

Learning about long-term consequences of armed conflict

What do outbreaks of armed conflict mean for households in war-torn areas? This column presents findings from data on Iraq on how household level decision-making is affected by conflict. The evidence suggests that armed conflict episodes have long-term effects on human capital that far outweigh the obvious and immediate impact of armed violence.

Labour market flexibility, unemployment and social protection

There are concerns that greater flexibility in the labour market will lead to more layoffs, higher unemployment and increased public spending on social protection. This column presents analysis suggesting that in fact labour market flexibility is negatively related to the unemployment rate and social protection spending.

Rising temperatures, melting ratings

Enthusiasm for ‘greening the financial system’ is welcome, but does the explosion of ‘green’ finance indicators reflect the science? This column reports research that uses artificial intelligence to construct the world’s first ‘climate smart’ sovereign credit rating. The results warn of climate-driven downgrades as early as 2030.

The construction industry and economic growth in MENA countries

Does the construction industry still lead economic growth in countries in the Middle East and North Africa? This column reports evidence on the relationship between construction investments and economic development for the ten biggest economies in the region over nearly half a century. The results indicate that the relative importance of construction in these countries has started to decline as GDP per capita grows.

Managing divergent recoveries

Recoveries from the Covid-19 crisis are diverging dangerously across and within countries, as economies with slower vaccine rollout, more limited policy support and more reliance on tourism do less well. This column, originally published on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) blog, concludes that without multilateral efforts to give all people a fair shot, cross-country gaps in living standards could widen significantly and decades-long progress in global poverty reduction could reverse.

No sticks, just carrots: a negative income tax for Egypt

Egypt’s government has provided cash assistance to vulnerable workers during the Covid-19 crisis. As this column explains, there is an opportunity to transform this temporary policy into a rules-based fiscal stimulus or automatic stabiliser that can strengthen the resilience of the Egyptian economy to future downturns. A negative income tax could also reduce informality and help to eradicate extreme poverty.

Most read

The green transition in MENA economies: challenges and policy pathways

The economies of the Middle East and North Africa are at a critical turning point. Global decarbonisation pressures, energy market volatility and technological transformation are increasingly challenging hydrocarbon-based growth models. This column argues that the green transition is not only an environmental necessity but also a strategic economic imperative.

Beyond job creation: how can Egypt’s gender gap in work be closed?

More than 2 million jobs are needed each year to absorb new entrants into Egypt’s labour market and raise the country’s employment rate. The job challenge is even more acute for women, whose labour force participation remains low despite recent gains in education. This column reports on the second Development Dialogue, an ERF–World Bank Group joint initiative, which brought together students, scholars, policy-makers and private sector leaders at the American University in Cairo to consider how the country’s gender gap in work can be closed.

The political economy of algorithms in the Middle East

The Middle East is entering a new political-economic era – one in which algorithms, data and artificial intelligence may become as strategically important as oil once was. Across the region, governments are investing heavily in digital infrastructure, smart governance and AI-driven economic transformation. This column outlines how AI and algorithmic governance are reshaping power, inequality and state capacity in the region.

Digitalisation, global value chains and regional integration in MENA & SSA

Participation in global value chains is vital for countries pursuing structural transformation and inclusive economic development. This column summarises new evidence on how much production processes have been globalised in Africa and the Middle East relative to other regions; whether this process has taken place with partners within or outside the region; and whether it has taken place more in manufacturing or services.

How trade policy can reduce MENA’s cereal import vulnerability

Heavy dependence on imported cereals, combined with climate change, water scarcity and geopolitical uncertainty, continues to threaten food resilience across MENA. This column explains how an inclusive trade policy can play a key role in making the region’s food security less vulnerable to shocks.




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