Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Sudan’s labour market: new data in turbulent times

1117
With Sudan experiencing numerous economic and political shocks over the past decade, a lack of labour market and household data has made it difficult for policy-makers to make evidence-based decisions. This column presents new nationally representative survey data, which have been long anticipated and are now publicly available: the Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey 2022.

In a nutshell

The Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey 2022 – which is the country’s first nationally representative survey since 2014 – provides substantial opportunities for researchers to develop a better understanding of the evolution of Sudan’s labour market, economy and society.

The survey consists of a household questionnaire and an individual questionnaire for those aged five and older; the resulting data – which were collected from June to September 2022 by Sudan’s Central Bureau of Statistics and ERF – include 4,878 households and 25,442 individuals.

The absence of a nationally representative labour market or household survey for almost a decade has meant that policy-makers have faced major barriers to making evidence-based decisions.

There has not been a nationally representative labour market or household survey in Sudan for almost a decade. This means that, until recently, policy-makers and researchers have faced major barriers to making evidence-based decisions.

The Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS) 2022 is the country’s first nationally representative survey since 2014. The survey includes household and individual information on geographical location, housing conditions, employment status and history, household enterprises, wages and sources of income, education, marital status, time use and more. The survey also includes people in refugee camps, IDP (internally displaced people) camps, refugee areas and IDP areas.

The SLMPS, which offers publicly available data, provides substantial opportunities for researchers to develop a better understanding of the evolution of Sudan’s labour market, economy and society.

Long-standing challenges for Sudan

Sudan has experienced a series of crises and shocks since 2018. The country has not been able to achieve structural transformation, and it has been experiencing declining productivity and rising poverty for some time (Etang Ndip and Lange, 2019).

Long-standing economic challenges contributed to the protests in 2018, leading to the eventual ousting of President Al-Bashir in 2019. While the formation of a civilian government later in the year brought a moment of global re-engagement, the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 was a major setback for the Sudanese economy (Central Bureau of Statistics, CBS, and World Bank, 2020), and one that was then compounded by rapid inflation (Asare et al, 2020; CBS and World Bank, 2020).

Political instability, including the military coup in October 2021, continued into 2022, in conjunction with further economic woes. Most recently, in April 2023, open conflict began between the armed forces and Rapid Support Forces.

Throughout this period, there have been limited data available to understand the state of Sudan’s labour market, economy and society. Like much of the MENA region, Sudan is a ‘data desert’ (Das et al, 2013; Ekhator-Mobayode and Hoogeveen, 2021). The most recent preceding household surveys in Sudan were in 2014, and the most recent labour force survey in 2011 (Ebaidalla and Satti, 2021; Ministry of Human Resources Development and Labour, 2011), neither of which are publicly available.

About the new data

The SLMPS 2022 is a new, publicly available and nationally representative survey (Krafft, Assaad and Cheung, 2023; OAMDI, 2023). The survey consists of a household questionnaire and an individual questionnaire for those aged five and older. The resulting data include 4,878 households and 25,442 individuals. The data were collected from June to September 2022 by Sudan’s CBS, in collaboration with ERF.

The household questionnaire includes identifiers and household location; a roster of household members; housing conditions and durable assets; current household member migrants abroad; remittances; other income and transfers; shocks and coping mechanisms; non-agricultural enterprises, including information on characteristics, employment of household members and others, assets, expenditures, and revenue; and agricultural assets, land and parcels, capital equipment, livestock, crops, and other agricultural income.

The individual questionnaire includes information about residential mobility; the characteristics of fathers, mothers and siblings (including siblings abroad); health; education level and detailed educational history; training experiences; skills; current employment and unemployment; job characteristics of primary and secondary jobs; labour market history; costs and characteristics of marriage; fertility; women’s employment; wages from primary and any secondary jobs; return migration, refugee and IDP experiences for Sudanese respondents; modules for immigration and refugees for non-Sudanese respondents; information technology; savings and borrowing; attitudes; time use (a full 24-hour diary for adults and a shorter module for children); and a series of questions on rights to parcels, livestock and durables.

The sample

The SLMPS 2022 was a random stratified cluster sample, based on 250 primary sampling units (PSUs). The sample frame was based on remote sensing data population estimates (WorldPop, 2020) in order to create PSUs. This sampling frame was used because there has not been a national population census in Sudan since 2008. The sample frame was complemented by a field listing of households within the PSUs and random sampling.

The strata represented in the sample are:

  • Refugee camps
  • Refugee areas (areas with non-camp refugee settlements)
  • IDP camps
  • IDP areas (areas with non-camp IDP settlements)
  • Other (non-refugee/non-IDP) rural areas
  • Other urban areas

Figure 1 shows the full sample frame of PSUs, classified by the different strata. Sampling weights reflect the sample design, response rates and the national population as of mid-2022 (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, 2022). For more details on the sample design, data collection activities and validation of the sample, see Krafft, Assaad and Cheung (2023).

Figure 1. Full sample frame of PSUs, classified by area type

Source: Authors’ construction based on WorldPop population projections (WorldPop, 2020) and locality boundaries (OCHA Regional Office for Sourthern and Eastern Africa, ROSEA, 2020), data on locations of refugees (OCHA Sudan, 2021) and IDPs (International Organization for Migration, IOM, 2020)

Potential future research

Public-use microdata from the 2022 wave of the SLMPS are available from ERF’s Open Access Microdata Initiative (OAMDI, 2023). While some research on the data has already begun (Assaad, Krafft and Jamkar, 2023; Assaad, Krafft and Wahby, 2023; Krafft et al, 2023a; Krafft, et al, 2023b), the data have enormous potential for additional research. Researchers can request the microdata free of charge from the ERF data portal.

The other waves of LMPSs from Egypt, Jordan and Tunisia are available from OAMDI (Assaad et al, 2016; Krafft and Assaad, 2021; Krafft, Assaad and Rahman, 2021; OAMDI, 2016; 2018; 2019), as well as harmonised datasets across countries.

The rich, publicly available data of the SLMPS provide substantial opportunities for researchers and policy-makers to develop a better understanding of the evolution of Sudan’s labour market, economy and society.

Acknowledgments

SLMPS 2022 was funded with support from the LSMS+ program at the World Bank and the Growth and Labor Markets | Low Income Countries (GLM | LIC) program at IZA, with underlying support from FCDO.

Further reading

Asare, J, S Awad, S Logan, P Mathewson and C Sacchetto (2020) ‘Sudan in the Global Economy: Opportunities for Integration and Inclusive Growth’, International Growth Centre.

Assaad, R, S Ghazouani, C Krafft and DJ Rolando (2016) ‘Introducing the Tunisia Labor Market Panel Survey 2014’, IZA Journal of Labor and Development 5(15): 1-21.

Assaad, R, C Krafft and V Jamkar (2023) ‘Gender, Work, and Time Use in Sudan’, ERF Working Paper series (forthcoming).

Assaad, R, C Krafft and S Wahby (2023) ‘Labor Market Dynamics in Sudan through Political Upheaval and Pandemic’, ERF Working Paper (forthcoming).

Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) and World Bank (2020) Socioeconomic Impact of COVID-19 on Sudanese Households.

Das, J, Q-T Do, K Shaines and S Srikant (2013) ‘U.S. and Them: The Geography of Academic Research’, Journal of Development Economics 105(1): 112-30.

Ebaidalla, EM, and SSOM Nour (2021) ‘Economic Growth and Labour Market Outcomes in an Agrarian Economy: The Case of Sudan’, in Regional Report on Jobs and Growth in North Africa 2020 (152-82), International Labour Organization and ERF.

Ekhator-Mobayode, UE, and J Hoogeveen (2021) ‘Microdata Collection and Openness in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Introducing the MENA Microdata Access Indicator’, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 9892.

Etang Ndip, A, and S Lange (2019) The Labor Market and Poverty in Sudan, World Bank.

International Organization for Migration (IOM). (2020) ‘Sudan Displacement Data – IDPs [IOM DTM]’, HDX.

Krafft, C, and R Assaad (2021) ‘Introducing the Jordan Labor Market Panel Survey 2016’, IZA Journal of Development and Migration 12(8): 1-42.

Krafft, C, R Assaad and R Cheung (2023) ‘Introducing the Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey 2022’, ERF Working Paper No. 1647.

Krafft, C, R Assaad, A Cortes-Mendosa and I Honzay (2023a) ‘The Structure of the Labor Force and Employment in Sudan’, ERF Working Paper No. 1648.

Krafft, C, T Kilic and H Moylan (2023b) ‘Women’s Economic Empowerment in Sudan: Assets and Agency’, ERF Working Paper (forthcoming).

Krafft, C, R Assaad and KW Rahman  (2021) ‘Introducing the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey 2018’, IZA Journal of Development and Migration 12(12): 1-40.

Ministry of Human Resources Development and Labour (2011) Sudan Labour Force Survey 2011.

OAMDI (2016) Labor Market Panel Surveys (LMPS), Version 2.0 of Licensed Data Files; TLMPS 2014, ERF.

OAMDI (2018) Labor Market Panel Surveys (LMPS), Version 1.1 of Licensed Data Files; JLMPS 2016, ERF.

OAMDI (2019) Labor Market Panel Surveys (LMPS), Version 2.0 of Licensed Data Files; ELMPS 2018.

OAMDI (2023) Labor Market Panel Surveys (LMPS), Version 2.0 of Licensed Data Files; SLMPS 2022.

OCHA Regional Office for Sourthern and Eastern Africa, ROSEA (2020) ‘Sudan – Subnational Administrative Boundaries – Humanitarian Data Exchange’, HDX.

OCHA Sudan (2021) ‘UNHCR Refugee Camps – Humanitarian Data Exchange’, HDX.

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division (2022) ‘World Population Prospects: The 2022 Revision‘. WorldPop (2020) ‘Sudan – Population Counts – Humanitarian Data Exchange‘, HDX.

Tags: , , , ,

Most read

Happiness in the Arab world: should we be concerned?

Several Arab countries have low rankings in the latest comparative assessment of average happiness across the world. But as this column explains, the average is not a reliable summary statistic when applied to ordinal data. The evidence from more robust analysis of socio-economic inequality in happiness suggests that policy-makers should be less concerned about happiness indicators than the core development objective of more equitable social conditions for citizens.

It’s too early to tell what happened to the Arab Spring

Did the Arab Spring fail? This column presents a view the consensus view from ERF’s recent annual conference in Morocco: careful analysis of the fundamental drivers of democratic transitions suggests that it’s too early to tell.

Arab regional cooperation in a fragmenting world

As globalisation stalls, regionalisation has emerged as an alternative. This column argues that Arab countries need to face the new realities and move decisively towards greater mutual cooperation. A regional integration agenda that also supports domestic reforms could be an important source of growth, jobs and stability.

Reformed foreign ownership rules in UAE: the impact on business entry

In an effort to stimulate economic growth and diversify the economy, the government of the United Arab Emirates has recently implemented regulatory reform that allows 100% foreign ownership of companies operating in the country. This column examines the implications of the reform for entry of new firms in Dubai, using unique data on new business licences in the emirate.

Self-employment in MENA: the role of religiosity and personal values

How important are individual’s values and beliefs in influencing the likelihood that they will embrace the responsibilities, risks and entrepreneurial challenge of self-employment? This column presents evidence from 12 countries in the Middle East and North African region on the roles of people’s religiosity and sense of personal agency in their labour market choices.

Gender differences in business record-keeping and planning in Iraq

Only one in every ten informal businesses in Iraq is led by a woman. Yet as research summarised in this column reveals, those businesses are more likely to set budgets and sales targets, and to keep business records. This may be evidence of the role of social exclusion in motivating greater reliance on the formal bureaucratic system.

Conflict and debt in the Middle East and North Africa

With the global economy is in its third year of deceleration amid declining inflation and oil prices, the Middle East and North Africa grew by just 1.9% in 2023, with a forecast for growth in 2024 at 2.7%. In addition to heightened uncertainty brought on by the conflict centred in Gaza, many countries in the region are also grappling with pre-existing vulnerabilities, including rising debt levels. This column summarises a new report that unpacks the nature of debt in MENA – and explains the critical importance of keeping rising debt stocks in check.

Making aid-for-trade more effective in the MENA region

Aid-for-trade represents an important opportunity for developing countries to enhance their trade capacities. But the positive effect of aid-for-trade on exports can hinge on the quality of institutions in recipient countries. According to research reported in this column, in the Middle East and North Africa, it is specific aid types – such as aid to support trade policy reform and aid to enhance productive capacities – that matter most for exports.

Sanctions and carbon emissions in Iran

How are Iran’s energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide affected by the imposition of economic sanctions? This column summarises new research that analyses a range of different scenarios and which takes account of multiple economic, social and environmental dimensions, notably what happens to growth and energy intensity, and whether sanctions are lifted.

Can a free trade area in services boost trade within the Arab region?

With trade in goods among Arab countries remaining modest, trade in services could play the pivotal role of an engine of growth in economic integration within the region, as well greater participation in global value chains. This column outlines progress to date and what needs to be done to make a success of AFTAS, the Arab free trade area in services.




LinkedIn