Economic Research Forum (ERF)

March

What is the likely impact of the earthquakes on economic growth in Türkiye?

The earthquakes in Türkiye and Syria in February 2023 have caused widespread destruction and loss of life. As explained in this column, originally published at the Economic Observatory, experiences from a previous earthquake suggest that the impact on GDP in Türkiye is likely to be short-lived, as public spending on reconstruction will provide a substantial economic boost.

Measuring poverty in Lebanon in the time of economic collapse

What has been the impact of Lebanon’s long-running economic crisis on the daily lives of citizens? This column documents a sharp increase in absolute poverty starting in 2019. Having at least three poor people out of every five residents of the country is a clear signal of the emergency of the situation.

Gender and corruption in MENA countries

The Middle East and North Africa is generally thought to be among the parts of the world where corruption spreads the fastest – and this is despite the progress of legislation in some MENA countries and the economic wealth in others. The role of women in the fight against corruption in the region is often ignored and underestimated. This column argues that more gender egalitarianism in a fair system can enhance efforts to reduce corruption.

Social protection in Jordan: towards collaborative implementation

Jordan has an ambitious national strategy for social protection, adopted in 2019. But as this column explains, implementing it has not been easy in the context of economic challenges, the global pandemic and geopolitical instability. Achieving transformative social protection requires a new social contract, citizen engagement and effective support from the international donor community.

The impact of revolution and war on income inequality in Iran

How did Iran’s revolution of 1978-79 and the war with Iraq from 1980 to 1988 affect levels of income inequality levels in the country? Would income inequality have developed differently in Iran if the revolution and war had never occurred? And how significant were the effects of the revolution and war in reducing income inequality? This column reports new research findings on these questions.

Investing in climate action and the SDGs for a resilient future

The interlinked crises of climate change, lingering effects of Covid-19 and the ensuing food and energy crises need to be tackled together – and as this column explains, this is best done within the broader context of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and in a framework of effective partnerships.

On calamities, debt and growth in developing countries

What implications does the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic have for debt and growth in developing countries? This column, originally published by the World Bank, summarises new research evidence on the economic impact of three types of calamities – natural disasters, conflicts and external debt distress.

Funding women entrepreneurs in MENA

Do women entrepreneurs in the Middle East and North Africa face obstacles in funding their businesses, either from others’ behaviour, such as discrimination, or their own, such as self-selection? This column reports evidence from data collected on more than 6,000 enterprises in six MENA countries, documenting the financial behaviour of both owners and managers according to their gender.

Economic issues affecting MENA through the lens of public opinion

For more than a decade, policy-makers in developing countries in the Middle East and North Africa have been confronted with high inequality, low growth, rising poverty, and high youth and women’s unemployment. They now face new challenges as well. This column, originally published by the Middle East Institute, identifies some of the most important issues affecting the region, relates them to the results of a recent survey of 12 Arab countries carried out by Arab Barometer, and suggests some pathways out of the current quagmire.

Most read

The green transition in MENA economies: challenges and policy pathways

The economies of the Middle East and North Africa are at a critical turning point. Global decarbonisation pressures, energy market volatility and technological transformation are increasingly challenging hydrocarbon-based growth models. This column argues that the green transition is not only an environmental necessity but also a strategic economic imperative.

Beyond job creation: how can Egypt’s gender gap in work be closed?

More than 2 million jobs are needed each year to absorb new entrants into Egypt’s labour market and raise the country’s employment rate. The job challenge is even more acute for women, whose labour force participation remains low despite recent gains in education. This column reports on the second Development Dialogue, an ERF–World Bank Group joint initiative, which brought together students, scholars, policy-makers and private sector leaders at the American University in Cairo to consider how the country’s gender gap in work can be closed.

The political economy of algorithms in the Middle East

The Middle East is entering a new political-economic era – one in which algorithms, data and artificial intelligence may become as strategically important as oil once was. Across the region, governments are investing heavily in digital infrastructure, smart governance and AI-driven economic transformation. This column outlines how AI and algorithmic governance are reshaping power, inequality and state capacity in the region.

Digitalisation, global value chains and regional integration in MENA & SSA

Participation in global value chains is vital for countries pursuing structural transformation and inclusive economic development. This column summarises new evidence on how much production processes have been globalised in Africa and the Middle East relative to other regions; whether this process has taken place with partners within or outside the region; and whether it has taken place more in manufacturing or services.

How trade policy can reduce MENA’s cereal import vulnerability

Heavy dependence on imported cereals, combined with climate change, water scarcity and geopolitical uncertainty, continues to threaten food resilience across MENA. This column explains how an inclusive trade policy can play a key role in making the region’s food security less vulnerable to shocks.




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