Economic Research Forum (ERF)

June

Dependency on natural resources and diversification of economies in MENA

It is widely understood that natural resource dependency can have a significant negative impact on a country’s long-term economic growth. This column explores evidence for how such outcomes arise – as well as potential diversification strategies that could help to reduce the resource curse in the economies of the Middle East and North Africa.

When market contestability is not enough

In economies where the state maintains a big footprint, as in the Middle East and North Africa, improving the performance of public enterprises and dominant private firms would seem to require a stronger threat of competition. But as this column explains, such enhanced market contestability may not be enough if there is inadequate competition in the marketplace for policy ideas and public opinion.

Harmonising rules of origin for the African continental free trade area

For the African continental free trade area to become fully operational, it is essential for the 54 signatory countries to reach agreement on harmonisation of rules of origins – the ‘Made in Africa’ criteria to ensure that only bona fide African products will benefit from tariff concessions. This column reports on progress and the remaining challenges.

Interactions of economic, political and cultural populism

Economic populism often leads to political and cultural populism, according to this column, the final one in a series of three on this increasingly prominent phenomenon. Because the returns to ‘election economics’ are positive in the short run – in terms of growth and popular support – but negative in the long run as the economy suffers, governments eventually have to resort to authoritarianism. Populists often end up blaming migrants, minorities, international institutions and foreign powers for the declining economy.

Economic and political populism – and an application to Turkey

Populist governments often practice ‘election economics’, boosting public spending ahead of a vote to attract more support and reining it in afterwards to avoid inflation. This column, the second in a series of three on the increasingly prominent economic and political phenomenon of populism, explores the experiences of Turkey.

Vulnerable workers in MENA a year into the pandemic

How are labour markets in the Middle East and North Africa performing a year into the pandemic? This column assesses the impact of the crisis on employment and earnings using data from the second wave of the ERF Covid-19 MENA monitor surveys in Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia. There are glimmers of progress but persistent problems in these four countries’ labour markets.

Kuwaiti small businesses after the pandemic: time for a new social contract

Has the Covid-19 outbreak been a blessing in disguise for the social contract for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises in Kuwait? This column argues that the double crisis of the pandemic and low oil prices provides an opportunity to adopt the reforms that are necessary to make the country’s economy more dynamic, in particular encouraging innovation and job creation in the small business sector.

Three types of populism: economic, political and cultural

Governments that stimulate the economy before elections by increasing transfer payments, authoritarian leaders who suppress opposition and undermine institutions that provide checks and balances, and political parties and governments that espouse racist and anti-immigrant policies are all referred to as ‘populist’. This column, the first of three on this increasingly prominent phenomenon, argues that we should distinguish three different kinds of populism: economic, political and cultural.

Most read

Sanctions and the shrinking size of Iran’s middle class

International sanctions imposed on Iran from 2012 have reduced the size of the country’s middle class, according to new research summarised in this column. The findings highlight the profound social consequences of economic pressure, not least given the crucial role of that segment of society for national innovation, growth and stability. The study underscores the need for policies to safeguard the civilian population in countries targeted by sanctions.

Artificial intelligence and the renewable energy transition in MENA

Artificial intelligence has the potential to bridge the gap between abundant natural resources and the pressing need for reliable, sustainable power in the Middle East and North Africa. This column outlines the constraints and proposes policies that can address the challenges of variability of renewable resources and stress on power grids, and support the transformation of ‘sunlight’ to ‘smart power’.

Green jobs for MENA in the age of AI: crafting a sustainable labour market

Arab economies face a dual transformation: the decarbonisation imperative driven by climate change; and the rapid digitalisation brought by artificial intelligence. This column argues that by strategically managing the green-AI nexus, policy-makers in the region can position their countries not merely as followers adapting to global mandates but as leaders in sustainable innovation.

Egypt’s forgotten democratisation: a challenge to modern myths about MENA

A widely held narrative asserts that countries in the Middle East are inevitably authoritarian. This column reports new research that tracks Egyptian parliamentarians since 1824 to reveal that the region’s struggle with democracy is not in fact about cultural incompatibility: it’s about colonialism disrupting home-grown democratic movements and elite conflicts being resolved through disenfranchisement rather than power-sharing.

MENA integration into global value chains and sustainable development

Despite the geopolitical advantages, abundant natural resources and young populations of many countries in the Middle East and North Africa, they remain on the periphery of global value chains, the international networks of production and service activities that now dominate the world economy. This column explains the positive impact of integration into GVCs on exports and employment; its role in technology transfer and capacity upgrading; and the structural barriers that constrain the region’s involvement. Greater GVC participation can help to deliver structural transformation and sustainable development.

Arab youth and the future of work

The Arab region’s labour markets are undergoing a triple transformation: demographic, digital and green. As this column explains, whether these forces evolve into engines of opportunity or drivers of exclusion for young people will hinge on how swiftly and coherently policy-makers can align education, technology and employment systems to foster adaptive skills, inclusive institutions and innovation-led pathways to decent work.

Wrong finance in a broken multilateral system: red flags from COP30-Belém

With the latest global summit on climate action recently wrapped up, ambitious COP pledges and initiatives continue to miss delivery due to inadequate commitments, weak operationalisation and unclear reporting systems. As this column reports, flows of climate finance remain skewed: loans over grants; climate mitigation more than climate adaptation; and weak accountability across mechanisms. Without grant-based finance, debt relief, climate-adjusted lending and predictable multilateral flows, implementation of promises will fail.

Why political connections are driving business confidence in MENA

This column reports the findings of a new study of how the political ties of firms in the Middle East and North Africa boost business confidence. The research suggests that this optimism is primarily driven by networked access to credit and lobbying, underscoring the need for greater transparency and institutional reform in corporate governance.

Digitalising governance in MENA: opportunities for social justice

Can digital governance promote social justice in MENA – or does it risk deepening inequality and exclusion? This column examines the evolution of digital governance in three sub-regions – Egypt, Jordan and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council – highlighting how data practices, transparency mechanisms and citizen trust shape the social outcomes of technological reform.




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