Economic Research Forum (ERF)

November

Repatriation: scenarios for conflict resolution and reconstruction

What are the prospects for conflict resolution in Syria and other war-torn Arab countries, for reconstruction of their broken economies and societies, and for repatriation of the many refugees that have fled for their lives? This column discusses the notion of inclusive political settlements as a precondition for safe refugee repatriation and reconstruction plans for devastated communities.

Political settlement scenarios for Arab conflicts

Millions of refugees from the Arab conflicts want to return to their countries, rebuild their homes and get their lives back – but what kind of political settlements might support that prospect? This column explores types of political settlements, what happened in the past after conflicts in Algeria and Lebanon, and scenarios for future political settlement in Syria.

Refugees from the Syrian conflict: characteristics and prospects

In the wake of the conflict in Syria, millions of people have fled for their lives, mainly to the neighbouring countries of Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, while some refugees have settled in Europe, notably in Germany. This column outlines the characteristics of these populations – in terms of their education, employment and reception by host communities – which are key determinants of the prospects for social integration.

Post-conflict economic reconstruction in the Arab world

What have been the economic costs of conflict in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen? And what are the prospects for post-conflict reconstruction in these countries and repatriation of some of the millions of refugees who have fled to safety? This column highlights the extent of the damage caused by war and outlines three scenarios for what comes next.

Repatriation of refugees from Arab conflicts: scenarios for reconstruction

The prospects for early repatriation of refugees who have fled conflicts in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen in recent years do not yet look promising. Nevertheless, not only have discussions about repatriation started at both national and international levels, but there is also a steady, though still limited, stream of refugees in neighbouring countries trickling back to their war-ravaged homes. This column summarises the latest ERF-FEMISE Euromed Report, which discusses the issue of repatriation in general and as a potential solution to the refugee crisis.

An appeal for Sudan’s future

Sudan today is on a knife-edge: it can evolve toward peace and democracy – or spiral into instability and violence. As this Project Syndicate column argues, vital and timely international assistance can make the difference between success and failure for the new government.

Arab countries are caught in an inequality trap

Conventional wisdom, based mainly on surveyed household income distribution statistics, suggests that inequality is generally low in Arab countries. At the same time, little attention has been devoted to social inequalities, whether in terms of outcomes or opportunities. This column introduces a forthcoming report, which offers a different narrative: based on the largest research project on the subject to date and covering 12 Arab countries, the authors argue that the region is caught in an inequality trap.

Getting reconstruction right and wrong: lessons from Iraq

Bitter experiences in the last two decades have made the international community hesitant to engage in robust reconstruction activities. This Brookings column asks how the process of reconstruction can be managed effectively, and what lessons – positive and negative – can be drawn from the experience with Iraq.

Egypt’s labour market: facts and prospects

An ERF policy conference on the Egyptian labour market in late October 2019 focused on gender and economic vulnerability. This column summarises the key takeaways from the event.

Most read

Empowering Egypt’s young people for the future of work

Egypt’s most urgent priority is creating more and better jobs for its growing youth population. This column reports on the first Development Dialogue, an ERF–World Bank joint initiative, which brought together students, scholars, policy-makers and private sector leaders at Cairo University to confront the country’s labour market challenge. The conversation explored why youth inclusion matters, what the data show and how dialogue and the forthcoming Country Economic Memorandum can inform practical pathways to accelerate job creation.

Preparing youth for the workforce of the future

As economies undergo rapid digital and green transformations, young people face a growing mismatch between their skills and what the modern labour market needs. This column argues that enabling youth to compete in the workforce of the future requires systemic reforms in education, skills formation and labour market institutions, especially in developing economies.

Connectivity and conflict: understanding the risks of inequality in the Middle East

While high inequality does not always lead to conflict, new research reported in this column shows that widespread internet access acts as a catalyst, transforming economic grievances into political instability. For policy-makers in the Middle East and North Africa, this means that as digital connectivity expands, the security costs of ignoring economic disparities rise dramatically. The combination of idle youth, high inequality and high-speed internet is a volatile mix.

The political economy of stalled structural reforms in MENA

There is a persistent pattern to the structural reforms that are required to underpin economic progress in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa: ambitious strategies are announced and partially implemented, but ultimately they are diluted or reversed. This column argues that the repeated stalling of reform is not primarily a failure of economic design. Rather, it reflects deep-seated political economy constraints rooted in rent dependence, elite bargaining and weak institutional credibility. Without addressing these underlying dynamics, reform efforts are likely to remain symbolic rather than transformative.

Closing the gender gap in political participation in MENA

Women across the Middle East and North Africa participate less than men in politics – not only in political parties and elections, but also in petitions, boycotts, protests and strikes. This column reports evidence from ten countries showing that differences in education, employment and political attitudes explain part of this disparity, yet a significant gender gap remains.




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