How should governments respond to the global pandemic? This column reports the views of leading economists on seeming trade-offs between strict public health measures to save lives and the likelihood of a severe economic contraction. The respondents to the latest IGM Forum survey are also unanimous about the desirability of greater government investment in treatment capacity.

Failures of fiscal policy, monetary policy and banking practices have led to economic crisis in Lebanon. This column argues that the focus of the new government’s plan for national recovery should be on fiscal governance and policy measures that constitute the bedrock for reforms in other areas of economic policy. Assistance from the International Monetary Fund can support their implementation and an effective rescue programme.

It is sometimes suggested that the Iraqi economy is similar to that of the Netherlands after the discovery of extensive reserves of natural resources: suffering from an overvalued currency that depresses exports and economic activity in other sectors – what is known as ‘Dutch disease’. This column argues that such analysis does not apply to Iraq – or indeed to the economies of any of the world’s developing oil-exporting countries – and leads to erroneous conclusions about the country’s exchange rate.

The COVID-19 pandemic is a massive shock to the world economy and its impact will be wide-ranging across all domains of life. This column examines some of the potential effects – from the household level through societies’ priorities to international relations.

The number of confirmed COVID-19 pandemic in the Middle East and Central Asia began rising sharply in late February. At the same time, oil prices have been forced downwards owing to falling global demand (due to the pandemic) and rising supply (stemming from a price war between suppliers). With the intertwined shocks expected to deal a severe blow to economic activity in the region, this column originally published on the blog of the International Monetary Fund, outlines the channels of economic impact and the policy priorities.

The COVID-19 outbreak interrupts a remarkable but short-lived improvement in Egypt’s economic performance following the implementation of recent reforms supported by the International Monetary Fund. This column outlines essential countercyclical measures to accommodate the likely economic damage from the pandemic, and emphasises the importance of sound institutions as a safeguard against potential misuse of the measures after the crisis and to ensure the sustainability of the reform outcomes.

It has long been understood that incumbent politicians are likely to have incentives to manipulate fiscal policy around election times to improve economic circumstances. This column reports evidence from Turkey indicating that election cycles in recent years may have taken a financial form rather than a fiscal form, notably in the contrasting corporate lending cycles of state-owned banks across provinces with different political affiliations.

A combination of supply and demand shocks has sent oil prices plunging and financial markets tumbling. This column argues that if the decline in oil prices persists, it will erode the fragile macroeconomic and social stability of countries – especially those in the Middle East and North Africa – that have been hit by the novel coronavirus.

An independent group of development specialists, economists and finance experts met in Beirut in late December to discuss Lebanon’s economic crisis and the way forward. This column summarises their ten-point action plan to arrest the crisis and place the country on a path of sustained recovery.

ERF’s annual conference has become the premier regional event for economists of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This column previews the 2020 conference, which was due to take place in Luxor, Egypt, in March but has been postponed until later in the year. The central focus will be on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a framework for MENA’s development policy.

The battle for Libya is a complicated affair involving not just the warring parties on the ground, but also a host of regional and global powers vying for regional influence and control of energy resources. As this Project Syndicate column explains, unless it ends soon, it could sow instability in neighbouring countries and trigger more waves of refugees fleeing to Europe.

The novel coronavirus, which first emerged in China in late 2019, has the potential to disrupt the economies of the Middle East and North Africa through four distinct channels: directly through infections; and indirectly through oil prices, value chains and tourism. As this column explains, the infection and oil price channels are the most significant, with the virus having spread to Iran and other MENA countries and oil prices having dropped $20 per barrel since its discovery.

Benford’s law – which suggests that the leading digits in various types of numerical data are not uniformly distributed – can be used to detect tax evasion in international trade. This column reports an application to imports data and an unexpected trade policy change in Turkey, the results of which reveal an increase in evasion after a doubling of the tax on imports that use external financing. Based on such analysis, tax authorities could decide where to channel resources in their fight against evasion.