Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Çağatay Bircan

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Çağatay Bircan
Principal Economist, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

Content by this Author

Elections and economic cycles: evidence from Turkey’s recent experiences

It has long been understood that incumbent politicians are likely to have incentives to manipulate fiscal policy around election times to improve economic circumstances. This column reports evidence from Turkey indicating that election cycles in recent years may have taken a financial form rather than a fiscal form, notably in the contrasting corporate lending cycles of state-owned banks across provinces with different political affiliations.

The benefits of year-round daylight saving time: evidence from Turkey

Ever since Benjamin Franklin’s observation in the late eighteenth century that people wasted daylight by sleeping after sunrise and squandered wax by burning candles in the evening, energy conservation has been the main motivation for governments to follow ‘daylight saving time’ (DST). Using Turkey’s recent decision to extend DST to the whole year, this column summarises new evidence on how DST affects the consumption and generation of electricity, and related greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis suggests that while total consumption is unchanged, emissions may have gone down due to the policy change.

Ownership structure and multinationals’ productivity: evidence from Turkey

Evidence is mixed on the effects of multinational activity on productivity and competitiveness in host economies. This column provides new evidence that previous estimates of the effects of multinationals on productivity may have been under-estimated. Analysis of data from Turkey’s manufacturing census suggests that the ownership structure of multinationals and foreign acquisitions play an important role in driving aggregate productivity growth.

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A Macroeconomic Accounting of Unemployment in Jordan:  Unemployment is mainly an issue for adults and men

Since unemployment rates in Jordan are higher among young people and women than other groups, unemployment is commonly characterised as a youth and gender issue. However, the majority of the country’s unemployed are adults and men. This suggests that unemployment is primarily a macroeconomic issue challenge for the entire labour market. The appropriate response therefore is coordinated fiscal, monetary, structural and institutional policies, while more targeted measures can still benefit specific groups.

Tunisia’s energy transition: the key role of small businesses

Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) play a critical role in Tunisia’s economy, contributing significantly to GDP and employment. As this column explains, they are also essential for advancing the country’s ambitions to make a successful transition from reliance on fossil fuels to more widespread use of renewable energy sources. A fair distribution of the transition’s benefits across all regions and communities will secure a future where MSMEs thrive as leaders in a prosperous, inclusive and sustainable Tunisia.

The hidden potential of Jordan’s small firms for driving a green transition

For Jordan, a green transition represents an enormous transformative opportunity. But a decade-long increase in the use of renewable energy has not freed the country of its economic woes. This column explores the currently underused yet potentially powerful force of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises – and proposes policies that could improve the investment climate and clear legislative and regulatory barriers.

Global value chains and sustainable development

What is the role of exchange rate undervaluation in promoting participation in global value chains by firms in developing countries? What is the impact of the stringency of national environmental regulations on firms’ GVC participation? And how do firms’ political connections affect their participation in GVCs? These questions will be explored for the MENA region at a special session of the ERF annual conference, which takes place in Cairo in April 2025.

Adoption of decentralised solar energy: lessons from Palestinian households

The experience of Palestinian households offers a compelling case study of behavioural adaptation to energy poverty via solar water heater adoption. This column highlights the key barriers to solar energy adoption in terms of both the socio-economic status and dwellings of potential users. Policy-makers need to address these barriers to ensure a just and equitable transition, particularly for households in conflict-affected areas across the MENA region.




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