Banu Demir

Bilkent University

Banu Demir is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Bilkent University in Ankara, a Research Affiliate at the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London, and a Research Affiliate at the CESifo Institute in Munich. She also worked as a Research Analyst at the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) unit at the World Bank between 2006 and 2008. She holds a DPhil from the University of Oxford.

Better roads improve regional economies: evidence from Turkey

Paving dirt roads and building highway networks have unsurprisingly been shown to produce substantial economic gains, but what is the impact on domestic trade from improving existing road networks? Using spatially disaggregated data on major capacity upgrades of existing road networks and domestic transactions in Turkey, this column, originally published at VoxEU, estimates a large positive impact of reduced travel times on trade and regional employment, and long-run aggregate real income gains of 2-3%.

Tackling tax evasion: how an obscure statistical law can help

International trade
Taxation
March 09, 2020

Benford’s law – which suggests that the leading digits in various types of numerical data are not uniformly distributed – can be used to detect tax evasion in international trade. This column reports an application to imports data and an unexpected trade policy change in Turkey, the results of which reveal an increase in evasion after a doubling of the tax on imports that use external financing. Based on such analysis, tax authorities could decide where to channel resources in their fight against evasion.

Gaining competitiveness through trade credit: evidence from Turkey

The removal of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement quotas that governed global trade in textiles and clothing until the end of 2004 led to a big rise in competition from China for some Turkish exporters to the European Union. This VoxEU column reports evidence that Turkish exporters affected by an increase in competitive pressures responded both by lowering their prices and by extending the trade credit they offered to importers.

Highways to growth: the impact of road upgrades on Turkish trade

Investment in transport infrastructure can improve a country’s growth prospects by facilitating trade. This column reports the findings of research on the impact of a major programme of road upgrades in Turkey from the early 2000s, which converted many two-lane undivided roads into dual carriageways. Trade both within the country and with other countries has benefited significantly from these improvements.

The Benban Solar Park, Africa’s biggest photovoltaic power station, demonstrates Egypt’s ability to attract foreign investment, implement complex infrastructure projects and align its energy goals with environmental sustainability. As this column explains, the next stage of the country’s clean energy transition requires a diversified financial ecosystem, together with committed and well-coordinated policy support.

The rising threat of water and food insecurity in MENA

The Middle East and North Africa is rapidly becoming the global epicentre of water and food insecurity. Drawing on regional evidence and global comparisons, this column identifies urgent priorities and offers policy strategies to strengthen resilience in this particularly climate-stressed part of the world before the crisis deepens further. The tools exist: what is needed is the political will and coordinated action to use them.

Sanctions and the shrinking size of Iran’s middle class

International sanctions imposed on Iran from 2012 have reduced the size of the country’s middle class, according to new research summarised in this column. The findings highlight the profound social consequences of economic pressure, not least given the crucial role of that segment of society for national innovation, growth and stability. The study underscores the need for policies to safeguard the civilian population in countries targeted by sanctions.

Artificial intelligence and the renewable energy transition in MENA

Artificial intelligence has the potential to bridge the gap between abundant natural resources and the pressing need for reliable, sustainable power in the Middle East and North Africa. This column outlines the constraints and proposes policies that can address the challenges of variability of renewable resources and stress on power grids, and support the transformation of ‘sunlight’ to ‘smart power’.

Green jobs for MENA in the age of AI: crafting a sustainable labour market

Arab economies face a dual transformation: the decarbonisation imperative driven by climate change; and the rapid digitalisation brought by artificial intelligence. This column argues that by strategically managing the green-AI nexus, policy-makers in the region can position their countries not merely as followers adapting to global mandates but as leaders in sustainable innovation.

MENA integration into global value chains and sustainable development

Despite the geopolitical advantages, abundant natural resources and young populations of many countries in the Middle East and North Africa, they remain on the periphery of global value chains, the international networks of production and service activities that now dominate the world economy. This column explains the positive impact of integration into GVCs on exports and employment; its role in technology transfer and capacity upgrading; and the structural barriers that constrain the region’s involvement. Greater GVC participation can help to deliver structural transformation and sustainable development.

Egypt’s forgotten democratisation: a challenge to modern myths about MENA

A widely held narrative asserts that countries in the Middle East are inevitably authoritarian. This column reports new research that tracks Egyptian parliamentarians since 1824 to reveal that the region’s struggle with democracy is not in fact about cultural incompatibility: it’s about colonialism disrupting home-grown democratic movements and elite conflicts being resolved through disenfranchisement rather than power-sharing.

The Forum ERF

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