Economic Research Forum (ERF)

July

Why data transparency matters for MENA economies

Magda Kandil was a highly regarded economist and long-time supporter of ERF and The Forum. In her final column, written shortly before her untimely passing, she concludes that the Covid-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to integrate short-term challenges into the long-term reform agenda so that MENA countries can graduate from the current crisis to a better and sustainable path of growth and prosperity.

Seven questions about Covid-19 and its consequences

What is the nature of the Covid-19 shock? What are the consequences of and immediate responses to Covid-19? Are lockdowns sustainable? Can all countries do ‘whatever it takes’ to deal with the pandemic? How should countries prepare for a recovery? What of global supply chains and trade? And what of sovereign debt restructuring? This column addresses these seven key questions.

The case for a solidarity tax to close the poverty gap in Arab countries

High rates of poverty coupled with high concentration of wealth in Arab countries indicate the need for stronger civic solidarity and the shared responsibility of the public, the private sector and the state for lifting the downtrodden out of poverty. This column makes the case for taxing top wealth to close the poverty gap and promote civic unity.

Poverty in Arab countries: the likely impact of Covid-19

The economic slowdown caused by Covid-19 is expected to affect jobs, incomes, businesses and the flow of trade and remittances worldwide and across the Arab region. This column reports that an additional 16 million people are expected to be poor in 14 Arab countries as a consequence of the pandemic. Unfortunately, this is not a new trend.

Access to finance in Egypt: structural and cyclical determinants

Access to credit is valuable for small and medium-sized firms in developing countries that have substantial growth opportunities; but it can also make it more difficult to hide revenues from tax authorities. This column reports a study of how the characteristics of firms in Egypt affect the trade-off involved in participating in the financial system – and the extent to which firms are able to obtain credit when they need it.

Sources of the 2020 crisis in Lebanon

The devastating financial tsunami that is engulfing Lebanon has been brewing since the early 1990s. This column explores the economic factors and policies that have led to this crisis – including austerity, political corruption, recession, sectarianism and unemployment – as well as the role of the central bank, the Banque du Liban.

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Empowering Egypt’s young people for the future of work

Egypt’s most urgent priority is creating more and better jobs for its growing youth population. This column reports on the first Development Dialogue, an ERF–World Bank joint initiative, which brought together students, scholars, policy-makers and private sector leaders at Cairo University to confront the country’s labour market challenge. The conversation explored why youth inclusion matters, what the data show and how dialogue and the forthcoming Country Economic Memorandum can inform practical pathways to accelerate job creation.

Preparing youth for the workforce of the future

As economies undergo rapid digital and green transformations, young people face a growing mismatch between their skills and what the modern labour market needs. This column argues that enabling youth to compete in the workforce of the future requires systemic reforms in education, skills formation and labour market institutions, especially in developing economies.

Connectivity and conflict: understanding the risks of inequality in the Middle East

While high inequality does not always lead to conflict, new research reported in this column shows that widespread internet access acts as a catalyst, transforming economic grievances into political instability. For policy-makers in the Middle East and North Africa, this means that as digital connectivity expands, the security costs of ignoring economic disparities rise dramatically. The combination of idle youth, high inequality and high-speed internet is a volatile mix.

The political economy of stalled structural reforms in MENA

There is a persistent pattern to the structural reforms that are required to underpin economic progress in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa: ambitious strategies are announced and partially implemented, but ultimately they are diluted or reversed. This column argues that the repeated stalling of reform is not primarily a failure of economic design. Rather, it reflects deep-seated political economy constraints rooted in rent dependence, elite bargaining and weak institutional credibility. Without addressing these underlying dynamics, reform efforts are likely to remain symbolic rather than transformative.

Closing the gender gap in political participation in MENA

Women across the Middle East and North Africa participate less than men in politics – not only in political parties and elections, but also in petitions, boycotts, protests and strikes. This column reports evidence from ten countries showing that differences in education, employment and political attitudes explain part of this disparity, yet a significant gender gap remains.




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