Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Institutions

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Losing the key to joy: how oil rents undermine patience and economic growth

Trust in Lebanon’s public institutions: a challenge for the new leadership

Unleashing the potential of Egyptian exports for sustainable development

International trade

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Market integration in the Middle East and the Balkans, 1560-1914

Global value chains and sustainable development

Global value chains, wages and skills in MENA countries

Investment

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Do capital inflows cause industrialisation or de-industrialisation?

The environmental impact of foreign direct investment in MENA

The construction industry and economic growth in MENA countries

Labour markets and human resources

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Artificial intelligence and the future of employment in MENA

Migration, human capital and labour markets in MENA

A Macroeconomic Accounting of Unemployment in Jordan:  Unemployment is mainly an issue for adults and men

Migration and remittances

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Migration, human capital and labour markets in MENA

Air pollution and internal migration in Iran

Economic and political populism – and an application to Turkey

Monetary policy

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Macroeconomic policy-making for sustainable development in Egypt

MENA’s unexpectedly low inflation

Economic resilience in Morocco during Covid-19

Oil and natural resources

View all 48 columns

Losing the key to joy: how oil rents undermine patience and economic growth

Adoption of decentralised solar energy: lessons from Palestinian households

The hidden potential of Jordan’s small firms for driving a green transition

Most read

Adoption of decentralised solar energy: lessons from Palestinian households

The experience of Palestinian households offers a compelling case study of behavioural adaptation to energy poverty via solar water heater adoption. This column highlights the key barriers to solar energy adoption in terms of both the socio-economic status and dwellings of potential users. Policy-makers need to address these barriers to ensure a just and equitable transition, particularly for households in conflict-affected areas across the MENA region.

Migration, human capital and labour markets in MENA

Migration is a longstanding and integral part of the MENA region’s economic and social fabric, with profound implications for labour markets and human capital development. To harness the potential of migration for promoting economic and social development, policy-makers must aim to deliver mutual benefits for origin countries, host countries and migrants. Such a triple-win strategy requires better data, investment in return migration, skill partnerships, reduced remittance costs and sustained support for host countries.

Shifting gears: how the private sector can be an engine of growth in MENA

Businesses are a key source of productivity growth, innovation and jobs. But in the Middle East and North Africa, the private sector is not dynamic and the region has a long history of low growth. This column summarises a new report explaining how a brighter future for MENA’s private sector is within reach if governments rethink their role and firms harness talent effectively.

Building net-zero futures: Asian lessons for MENA’s construction sector

Three big economies in Asia are achieving carbon neutrality in construction. This column draws lessons from Japan, Taiwan and Thailand – and explains why, given the vast solar potential and growing focus on environmental, social and governance matters in the Middle East and North Africa, governments in the region must adopt similarly ambitious policies and partnerships.

Losing the key to joy: how oil rents undermine patience and economic growth

How does reliance on oil revenues shape economic behaviour worldwide? This column reports new research showing that oil rents weaken governance, eroding patience – a key driver of economic growth and, according to the 13th century Persian poet Rumi, ‘the key to joy’. Policy measures to counter the damage include enhancing transparency in oil revenue management, strengthening independent oversight institutions and ensuring that sovereign wealth funds have robust rules of governance.

Artificial intelligence and the future of employment in MENA

Artificial intelligence offers opportunities for boosting productivity and innovation. But it also poses substantial threats to traditional employment structures, particularly in economies like those in the Middle East and North Africa that are reliant on low-skill or routine labour. This column explores how AI is likely to affect employment across the region and proposes policy directions for governments to harness AI for inclusive and sustainable economic growth.

Freedom, agency and material conditions: human development in MENA

Conventional approaches to measuring human development, which are primarily centred on income, health and education, provide an incomplete assessment of people’s opportunities to improve their lives. As this column explains, it is essential to understand how institutional and social environments influence individuals’ agency over their development outcomes. Analysis of the diverse recent experiences of Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia illustrates how such an approach can inform policy-making.

Fiscal limits and debt sustainability in MENA economies

Public debt is piling up across the Middle East and North Africa after years of political upheavals, economic shocks and the Covid-19 pandemic. With fiscal space shrinking, governments are under pressure to act. This column explains why for many countries in the region, the room for manoeuvre on the public finances may be smaller than policy-makers think. Urgent action is needed to restore debt sustainability.

Market integration in the Middle East and the Balkans, 1560-1914

Trade has re-emerged as a central issue in global policy debates, as governments debate not only the costs and benefits of trade, but also the underlying determinants of market integration. To inform the discussion, this column reports new research evidence on the experiences of the former Ottoman territories in the Middle East and the Balkans over nearly four centuries, tracing the evolution, drivers and consequences of trade integration across these regions.

From rentier states to innovation economies: is a MENA transition possible?

The combination of climate change, energy price volatility, high unemployment among educated youth, and global technological competition is exposing the vulnerabilities of MENA’s traditional economic structures and the need for structural transformation. This column examines whether such a transition is feasible and the policies that could promote such a shift.




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