Economic Research Forum (ERF)

June

Geopolitical and economic tension in the 21st century: Not your grandfather’s cold war

Current geopolitical tensions between China and the United States have been compared to the Cold War. But the modern-day rivalry differs from that of the US and Soviet Union, not least of all in terms of how other countries have responded. This column argues that in today’s context, a given state is less likely to side directly with either China or the US, and is instead able to benefit economically from courting both superpowers. But while not as deeply entrenched as in the 20th century, the schism between the US and China, as well as the way the international community has reacted, remains harmful to the wider global economy – de-escalation is needed urgently.

Altered destinies: the long-term effects of food insecurity in the MENA region

Rising food prices are making it difficult for families to put meals on the table. Inflation, especially when it stems from food prices, hits the poorest groups hardest. Across the MENA region, food insecurity has been rising over recent decades. As well as having dire immediate consequences, even temporary increases in food prices can cause long-term irreversible damages, especially to children. This column argues that the rise in food prices due to the war in Ukraine may have altered the destinies of thousands of children in the MENA region, setting them on paths to limited prosperity.

Creating jobs: making Egypt’s economy work for everyone

Job creation is an indicator of healthy economic growth. But in Egypt, despite impressive macroeconomic resilience that helped the country navigate the Covid-19 pandemic, several long-run structural weaknesses undermine the development of new jobs, even during periods of promising growth. This column argues that without a renewed targeted focus on structural change in the Egyptian labour market, inclusive growth will remain out of reach.

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The green transition in MENA economies: challenges and policy pathways

The economies of the Middle East and North Africa are at a critical turning point. Global decarbonisation pressures, energy market volatility and technological transformation are increasingly challenging hydrocarbon-based growth models. This column argues that the green transition is not only an environmental necessity but also a strategic economic imperative.

Beyond job creation: how can Egypt’s gender gap in work be closed?

More than 2 million jobs are needed each year to absorb new entrants into Egypt’s labour market and raise the country’s employment rate. The job challenge is even more acute for women, whose labour force participation remains low despite recent gains in education. This column reports on the second Development Dialogue, an ERF–World Bank Group joint initiative, which brought together students, scholars, policy-makers and private sector leaders at the American University in Cairo to consider how the country’s gender gap in work can be closed.

The political economy of algorithms in the Middle East

The Middle East is entering a new political-economic era – one in which algorithms, data and artificial intelligence may become as strategically important as oil once was. Across the region, governments are investing heavily in digital infrastructure, smart governance and AI-driven economic transformation. This column outlines how AI and algorithmic governance are reshaping power, inequality and state capacity in the region.

Digitalisation, global value chains and regional integration in MENA & SSA

Participation in global value chains is vital for countries pursuing structural transformation and inclusive economic development. This column summarises new evidence on how much production processes have been globalised in Africa and the Middle East relative to other regions; whether this process has taken place with partners within or outside the region; and whether it has taken place more in manufacturing or services.

How trade policy can reduce MENA’s cereal import vulnerability

Heavy dependence on imported cereals, combined with climate change, water scarcity and geopolitical uncertainty, continues to threaten food resilience across MENA. This column explains how an inclusive trade policy can play a key role in making the region’s food security less vulnerable to shocks.




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