Economic Research Forum (ERF)

July

The Lebanese tragedy: who is to blame?

The collapse of the Lebanese economy triggered vicious cycles that are spiralling out of control. As a result, there is a growing debate about whom to blame for the crisis. Many blamed the government – or the central bank – or the rent-seekers; others blamed the entire political and economic system. This column sheds light on the chain of events that led to the crisis.

A looming oil price super cycle will likely be the last

A new oil price super cycle, an extended period during which prices exceed their long-term trend, seems to be in the making. This column, originally published in the Summer 2021 issue of Finance and Development, explores why it could be the last of its kind – and the challenging implications for oil-dependent economies and their neighbours.

Tax policy for the post-Covid-19 era

Covid-19 offers an opportunity for developing countries to rethink their tax policy to contribute to the reconstruction effort and promote the recovery. This column explores what the legacy of the pandemic will be for our tax systems and several dimensions for the required rethinking.

Why does growth generate so few and such low-quality jobs in North Africa?

A new report examines the type and quality of jobs created in Algeria, Egypt, Sudan and Tunisia, and how they relate to patterns of economic growth. As this column explains, the history of dependence on oil and other resources as the engines of growth in these economies has meant a large flow of rents into government coffers, which has enabled an outsized but unsustainable role for the public sector as an employer.

Most read

Labour demand and informal employment in Egypt’s manufacturing sector

Egypt’s manufacturing sector faces a dual challenge of weak job creation and persistent informality. Drawing on survey evidence on business behaviour and labour market dynamics, this column explains why job creation is limited and informal work remains such an integral part of how firms organise production. The generation of more formal jobs requires a comprehensive policy approach, one that goes beyond enforcement of labour regulations to reshape the economic environment in which firms and workers make decisions.

Challenges of conflict and industrial policy for development

How effective is industrial policy as a tool for long-term economic growth and development? Against the backdrop of the conflict currently engulfing the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAAP), a new report argues that while industrial policies are widely used across the region, they can only address market failures and foster growth when they are aligned with country capabilities, implemented with accountability and backed by capable institutions.

The green transition in MENA economies: challenges and policy pathways

The economies of the Middle East and North Africa are at a critical turning point. Global decarbonisation pressures, energy market volatility and technological transformation are increasingly challenging hydrocarbon-based growth models. This column argues that the green transition is not only an environmental necessity but also a strategic economic imperative.




Linkedin