Economic Research Forum (ERF)

January

How can the Biden administration help improve MENA’s economic prospects?

President Biden’s administration will face a number of major challenges in the Middle East over the next four years, from great power competition and climate change to cybersecurity and refugees and migration. This column, originally published by the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, outlines what it can do to help improve economic prospects across the region.

A Sherman Act-like moment is needed in Africa and the Middle East

With the population of Africa and the Middle East set to double by 2050, efforts to ‘demonopolise’ the economies of the region – akin to late 19th century US federal legislation that outlawed monopolistic business practices – are vital to achieve economic transformation. Collectively leveraging the rise in pent-up domestic demand will facilitate the development of domestic productive systems, transforming raw products and supporting the creation of decent jobs.

Do coronavirus containment measures work? Worldwide evidence

How effective are lockdowns and social distancing measures in containing the spread of Covid-19 and how quickly should they be adopted? This column reports cross-country evidence on eight different coronavirus containment measures in flattening the epidemiological curve of the pandemic and reducing contagion and fatality rates.

Crude lessons: what history teaches about the future of oil prices

Oil prices have taken a big hit as a result of the global pandemic, costing Middle Eastern economies billions of dollars every day and leading to downsizing and restructuring. As this column explains, forecasts of future prices focus on two divergent factors: how long will it take for demand for oil to recover; and how effective will be the agreement among the OPEC+ countries in keeping supply at bay. The lessons from history do not suggest a promising outlook for oil-exporting economies’ ability to raise prices.

When gender matters for exports by MENA firms

There is considerable evidence that export-oriented strategies have a beneficial impact on growth and development. This column reports research suggesting that enhancing women’s participation in the export sector could be a new source of competitiveness for firms in the Middle East and North Africa.

Most read

Empowering Egypt’s young people for the future of work

Egypt’s most urgent priority is creating more and better jobs for its growing youth population. This column reports on the first Development Dialogue, an ERF–World Bank joint initiative, which brought together students, scholars, policy-makers and private sector leaders at Cairo University to confront the country’s labour market challenge. The conversation explored why youth inclusion matters, what the data show and how dialogue and the forthcoming Country Economic Memorandum can inform practical pathways to accelerate job creation.

Preparing youth for the workforce of the future

As economies undergo rapid digital and green transformations, young people face a growing mismatch between their skills and what the modern labour market needs. This column argues that enabling youth to compete in the workforce of the future requires systemic reforms in education, skills formation and labour market institutions, especially in developing economies.

Connectivity and conflict: understanding the risks of inequality in the Middle East

While high inequality does not always lead to conflict, new research reported in this column shows that widespread internet access acts as a catalyst, transforming economic grievances into political instability. For policy-makers in the Middle East and North Africa, this means that as digital connectivity expands, the security costs of ignoring economic disparities rise dramatically. The combination of idle youth, high inequality and high-speed internet is a volatile mix.

The political economy of stalled structural reforms in MENA

There is a persistent pattern to the structural reforms that are required to underpin economic progress in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa: ambitious strategies are announced and partially implemented, but ultimately they are diluted or reversed. This column argues that the repeated stalling of reform is not primarily a failure of economic design. Rather, it reflects deep-seated political economy constraints rooted in rent dependence, elite bargaining and weak institutional credibility. Without addressing these underlying dynamics, reform efforts are likely to remain symbolic rather than transformative.

Closing the gender gap in political participation in MENA

Women across the Middle East and North Africa participate less than men in politics – not only in political parties and elections, but also in petitions, boycotts, protests and strikes. This column reports evidence from ten countries showing that differences in education, employment and political attitudes explain part of this disparity, yet a significant gender gap remains.




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