Economic Research Forum (ERF)

January

The two arrows for growth policy in MENA

How can governments in the Middle East and North Africa revitalise their economies? This column focuses on two key elements of growth policy that are needed in the region: harnessing digital technologies in a programme similar to the 1960s US moonshot; and promoting free and fair competition to end the cosy relationship between governments and connected firms.

Cronyism reduces job creation in Lebanon

Firm-level political connections are widespread. This column examines whether they affect employment decisions in Lebanon, a country where the majority of university students think that connections are important for finding jobs and many admit to having used them.

Childhood stunting in Egypt: trends, causes and solutions

Childhood stunting is a serious health problem in Egypt. This column explores what determines its prevalence and how policy initiatives can ameliorate the negative consequences associated with stunting.

The impact of mass media on voting: evidence from Algeria and Tunisia

What is the impact of mass media – TV, radio, newspapers, the internet and social media – on citizens’ intention to vote in elections? This column reports analysis of survey evidence from Algeria and Tunisia.

The Gulf divided: economic effects of the Qatar crisis

Since mid-2017, the quartet of Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has operated a diplomatic, trade and travel boycott of Qatar. This column reports the results of research on the regional business costs of this blockade. The analysis reveals that while Qatar has been shaken by this crisis, the other countries have not gone unscathed, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Lebanon’s perfect storm

After years of maintaining a dysfunctional political economy based on sectarianism and rentierism, Lebanon's ruling elites are being confronted with simultaneous financial, economic and political crises. As this Project Syndicate column argues, the question now is how they respond to a reformist movement demanding fundamental change, including a new political settlement.

Most read

Sanctions and the shrinking size of Iran’s middle class

International sanctions imposed on Iran from 2012 have reduced the size of the country’s middle class, according to new research summarised in this column. The findings highlight the profound social consequences of economic pressure, not least given the crucial role of that segment of society for national innovation, growth and stability. The study underscores the need for policies to safeguard the civilian population in countries targeted by sanctions.

Artificial intelligence and the renewable energy transition in MENA

Artificial intelligence has the potential to bridge the gap between abundant natural resources and the pressing need for reliable, sustainable power in the Middle East and North Africa. This column outlines the constraints and proposes policies that can address the challenges of variability of renewable resources and stress on power grids, and support the transformation of ‘sunlight’ to ‘smart power’.

Green jobs for MENA in the age of AI: crafting a sustainable labour market

Arab economies face a dual transformation: the decarbonisation imperative driven by climate change; and the rapid digitalisation brought by artificial intelligence. This column argues that by strategically managing the green-AI nexus, policy-makers in the region can position their countries not merely as followers adapting to global mandates but as leaders in sustainable innovation.

Egypt’s forgotten democratisation: a challenge to modern myths about MENA

A widely held narrative asserts that countries in the Middle East are inevitably authoritarian. This column reports new research that tracks Egyptian parliamentarians since 1824 to reveal that the region’s struggle with democracy is not in fact about cultural incompatibility: it’s about colonialism disrupting home-grown democratic movements and elite conflicts being resolved through disenfranchisement rather than power-sharing.

MENA integration into global value chains and sustainable development

Despite the geopolitical advantages, abundant natural resources and young populations of many countries in the Middle East and North Africa, they remain on the periphery of global value chains, the international networks of production and service activities that now dominate the world economy. This column explains the positive impact of integration into GVCs on exports and employment; its role in technology transfer and capacity upgrading; and the structural barriers that constrain the region’s involvement. Greater GVC participation can help to deliver structural transformation and sustainable development.

Arab youth and the future of work

The Arab region’s labour markets are undergoing a triple transformation: demographic, digital and green. As this column explains, whether these forces evolve into engines of opportunity or drivers of exclusion for young people will hinge on how swiftly and coherently policy-makers can align education, technology and employment systems to foster adaptive skills, inclusive institutions and innovation-led pathways to decent work.

Wrong finance in a broken multilateral system: red flags from COP30-Belém

With the latest global summit on climate action recently wrapped up, ambitious COP pledges and initiatives continue to miss delivery due to inadequate commitments, weak operationalisation and unclear reporting systems. As this column reports, flows of climate finance remain skewed: loans over grants; climate mitigation more than climate adaptation; and weak accountability across mechanisms. Without grant-based finance, debt relief, climate-adjusted lending and predictable multilateral flows, implementation of promises will fail.

Why political connections are driving business confidence in MENA

This column reports the findings of a new study of how the political ties of firms in the Middle East and North Africa boost business confidence. The research suggests that this optimism is primarily driven by networked access to credit and lobbying, underscoring the need for greater transparency and institutional reform in corporate governance.

Digitalising governance in MENA: opportunities for social justice

Can digital governance promote social justice in MENA – or does it risk deepening inequality and exclusion? This column examines the evolution of digital governance in three sub-regions – Egypt, Jordan and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council – highlighting how data practices, transparency mechanisms and citizen trust shape the social outcomes of technological reform.




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