Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Roberta V. Gatti

Author

Roberta V. Gatti
Chief Economist, Middle East and North Africa, The World Bank

Roberta Gatti is the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region at the World Bank, where she oversees the analytical agenda of the region and the publication of the semi-annual MENA Economic Updates. She is the founder of the MENA Central Banks Regional Research Network. In her prior capacity as Chief Economist for the Human Development Practice Group, Roberta co-led the conceptualization and launch of the World Bank Human Capital Index and the scale up of the Service Delivery Indicators data initiative. Roberta joined the World Bank as a Young Professional in the Macro unit of the Development Research Group and she has since led and overseen both operational and analytical work in her roles of Manager and of Global Lead for Labor Policies. Roberta’s research, spanning a broad set of topics such as growth, firm productivity, the economics of corruption, gender equity, and labor markets, has been published in lead field journals such as the Journal of Public Economics, the Journal of Economic Growth, and the Journal of Development Economics. She is also the lead author of a number of flagship reports, including Jobs for Shared Prosperity: Time for Action in the Middle East and North Africa; Striving for Better Jobs: The Challenge of Informality in Middle East and North Africa; The Human Capital Index 2020 Update: Human Capital in the Time of COVID-19; and Service Delivery in Education and Health across Africa. Roberta has taught courses at the undergraduate, masters, and Ph.D. Level at Georgetown and Johns Hopkins Universities. She is a frequent lecturer on development economics, most recently at Dartmouth College, Princeton University, and Cornell University. Roberta holds a B.A. from Università Bocconi and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University.

Content by this Author

Shifting gears: how the private sector can be an engine of growth in MENA

Businesses are a key source of productivity growth, innovation and jobs. But in the Middle East and North Africa, the private sector is not dynamic and the region has a long history of low growth. This column summarises a new report explaining how a brighter future for MENA’s private sector is within reach if governments rethink their role and firms harness talent effectively.

Growth in the Middle East and North Africa

What is the economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa? How is the current conflict centred in Gaza affecting economies in the region? What are the potential long-term effects of conflict on development? And which strategies can MENA countries adopt to accelerate economic growth? This column outlines the findings in the World Bank’s latest half-yearly MENA Economic Update, which answers these questions and more.

Conflict and debt in the Middle East and North Africa

With the global economy is in its third year of deceleration amid declining inflation and oil prices, the Middle East and North Africa grew by just 1.9% in 2023, with a forecast for growth in 2024 at 2.7%. In addition to heightened uncertainty brought on by the conflict centred in Gaza, many countries in the region are also grappling with pre-existing vulnerabilities, including rising debt levels. This column summarises a new report that unpacks the nature of debt in MENA – and explains the critical importance of keeping rising debt stocks in check.

Balancing act: jobs and wages in MENA when crises hit

What has been the human toll of the dizzying sequence of global macroeconomic shocks since 2020 for the Middle East and North Africa in terms of lost jobs and deteriorating livelihoods? A recent World Bank report highlights the additional 5.1 million people who have become unemployed, and explores the potential for them to be permanently scarred by the experience. As this column explains, there is a critical trade-off in labour markets between jobs losses and falls in real incomes, neither of which is desirable. The authors advocate maintaining real wage flexibility and supporting the most vulnerable via targeted cash transfers.

Altered destinies: the long-term effects of food insecurity in the MENA region

Rising food prices are making it difficult for families to put meals on the table. Inflation, especially when it stems from food prices, hits the poorest groups hardest. Across the MENA region, food insecurity has been rising over recent decades. As well as having dire immediate consequences, even temporary increases in food prices can cause long-term irreversible damages, especially to children. This column argues that the rise in food prices due to the war in Ukraine may have altered the destinies of thousands of children in the MENA region, setting them on paths to limited prosperity.

Reality check: forecasting MENA growth in times of uncertainty

Over the past decade, growth forecasts for the countries of the Middle East and North Africa have often been overly optimistic. As this summary of the World Bank’s latest Economic Update for the region shows, greater availability and accessibility of timely and high-quality information can improve their accuracy. Better forecasts are particularly important in these times of uncertainty, as policy-makers seek a path to economic recovery from the pandemic and its aftermath.

Labour market transitions over the life cycle in Egypt across two decades

To assess the impact of Covid-19 on Egypt’s labour markets, it is useful to understand how they functioned prior to the shock. Drawing on two decades of data on labour market transitions, this column concludes that the hefty reliance of the country’s economy on public sector employment, in particular for women, the small size of the private formal sector, the large and increasing private informal sector, and the very low participation of women all make the Egyptian labour market less resilient in absorbing the negative effects of the pandemic.

MENA public healthcare systems: building resilience for future emergencies

The pandemic caught most countries in the Middle East and North Africa with underfinanced, imbalanced and ill-prepared healthcare systems. This column outlines what went wrong, the economic and health impacts, and the implications for policy. The authors conclude that together with a strong focus on building core public health functions, leveraging the power of data openness can help to promote the region’s recovery. It can also support resilient systems capable of responding to future health calamities arising from epidemics, wars and natural disasters driven by climate change.

When market contestability is not enough

In economies where the state maintains a big footprint, as in the Middle East and North Africa, improving the performance of public enterprises and dominant private firms would seem to require a stronger threat of competition. But as this column explains, such enhanced market contestability may not be enough if there is inadequate competition in the marketplace for policy ideas and public opinion.

Living with debt: how institutions can chart a path to recovery in MENA

Public debt has been a critical tool for governments dealing with Covid-19, but it is a double-edged sword: as the pandemic subsides, tensions will inevitably arise between potential short-run gains and long-run costs. As the World Bank report summarised in this column concludes, institutional reforms to improve governance and transparency can address the trade-off. Such measures can be implemented with limited fiscal costs – and they hold the promise of boosting long-run growth.

Most read

Adoption of decentralised solar energy: lessons from Palestinian households

The experience of Palestinian households offers a compelling case study of behavioural adaptation to energy poverty via solar water heater adoption. This column highlights the key barriers to solar energy adoption in terms of both the socio-economic status and dwellings of potential users. Policy-makers need to address these barriers to ensure a just and equitable transition, particularly for households in conflict-affected areas across the MENA region.

Migration, human capital and labour markets in MENA

Migration is a longstanding and integral part of the MENA region’s economic and social fabric, with profound implications for labour markets and human capital development. To harness the potential of migration for promoting economic and social development, policy-makers must aim to deliver mutual benefits for origin countries, host countries and migrants. Such a triple-win strategy requires better data, investment in return migration, skill partnerships, reduced remittance costs and sustained support for host countries.

Building net-zero futures: Asian lessons for MENA’s construction sector

Three big economies in Asia are achieving carbon neutrality in construction. This column draws lessons from Japan, Taiwan and Thailand – and explains why, given the vast solar potential and growing focus on environmental, social and governance matters in the Middle East and North Africa, governments in the region must adopt similarly ambitious policies and partnerships.

Shifting gears: how the private sector can be an engine of growth in MENA

Businesses are a key source of productivity growth, innovation and jobs. But in the Middle East and North Africa, the private sector is not dynamic and the region has a long history of low growth. This column summarises a new report explaining how a brighter future for MENA’s private sector is within reach if governments rethink their role and firms harness talent effectively.

Losing the key to joy: how oil rents undermine patience and economic growth

How does reliance on oil revenues shape economic behaviour worldwide? This column reports new research showing that oil rents weaken governance, eroding patience – a key driver of economic growth and, according to the 13th century Persian poet Rumi, ‘the key to joy’. Policy measures to counter the damage include enhancing transparency in oil revenue management, strengthening independent oversight institutions and ensuring that sovereign wealth funds have robust rules of governance.

Artificial intelligence and the future of employment in MENA

Artificial intelligence offers opportunities for boosting productivity and innovation. But it also poses substantial threats to traditional employment structures, particularly in economies like those in the Middle East and North Africa that are reliant on low-skill or routine labour. This column explores how AI is likely to affect employment across the region and proposes policy directions for governments to harness AI for inclusive and sustainable economic growth.

Freedom, agency and material conditions: human development in MENA

Conventional approaches to measuring human development, which are primarily centred on income, health and education, provide an incomplete assessment of people’s opportunities to improve their lives. As this column explains, it is essential to understand how institutional and social environments influence individuals’ agency over their development outcomes. Analysis of the diverse recent experiences of Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia illustrates how such an approach can inform policy-making.

Fiscal limits and debt sustainability in MENA economies

Public debt is piling up across the Middle East and North Africa after years of political upheavals, economic shocks and the Covid-19 pandemic. With fiscal space shrinking, governments are under pressure to act. This column explains why for many countries in the region, the room for manoeuvre on the public finances may be smaller than policy-makers think. Urgent action is needed to restore debt sustainability.

Market integration in the Middle East and the Balkans, 1560-1914

Trade has re-emerged as a central issue in global policy debates, as governments debate not only the costs and benefits of trade, but also the underlying determinants of market integration. To inform the discussion, this column reports new research evidence on the experiences of the former Ottoman territories in the Middle East and the Balkans over nearly four centuries, tracing the evolution, drivers and consequences of trade integration across these regions.

From rentier states to innovation economies: is a MENA transition possible?

The combination of climate change, energy price volatility, high unemployment among educated youth, and global technological competition is exposing the vulnerabilities of MENA’s traditional economic structures and the need for structural transformation. This column examines whether such a transition is feasible and the policies that could promote such a shift.




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