Economic Research Forum (ERF)

A sustainable economy for the Arab world

917
Building a sustainable economy is an urgent imperative for policy-makers, businesses, and citizens throughout the Arab world. This Project Syndicate column says that it won’t be easy, but the region has plenty of experience overcoming even the most difficult challenges.

In a nutshell

Arab countries must move fast to build a more sustainable economy, underpinned by greater private sector creativity and vitality, improved public services, and the creation of regional and global public goods.

The key to success will be smart cooperation: between the public and private sectors; between government and civil society; among countries; and between countries and international organisations.

Companies need a transparent framework that enables them more easily to share information about progress on their long-term economic, social, and environmental objectives.

In recent decades, millions of people in the Arab world have been lifted out of extreme poverty. But progress is now at risk of slowing, or even reversing, owing to a vicious circle of economic failure and violent disorder. To prevent such an outcome, Arab countries must move fast to build a more sustainable economy, underpinned by greater private sector creativity and vitality, improved public services, and the creation of regional and global public goods.

The first step toward achieving this is to recognise the scale and nature of the potential barriers to success. Arab countries today are faced with slow overall GDP growth and tightening fiscal constraints. Disparities in access to education, training, and healthcare – partly a reflection of those fiscal constraints – exacerbate already rising inequality.

As we have seen in the region, such circumstances can fuel political polarisation and violent conflict, with the concomitant displacement, loss of life, destruction of infrastructure, and staggering economic costs. While economic development is no guarantor of peace, development failures do often contribute to extremism and violence, as popular anger combines with a loss of institutional legitimacy. The existence of nearby conflicts, which can have destabilising spillover effects, heightens the risk of unrest.

Technological innovation can be part of the solution for Arab economies; but the accompanying disruption of markets and livelihoods raises its own challenges. Equally difficult to manage are risks like climate change and pandemics, which transcend borders and thus cannot be addressed by any single country.

Overcoming these challenges will not be easy. The key to success will be smart cooperation: between the public and private sectors; between government and civil society; among countries; and between countries and international organisations.

One of those international organisations is the World Bank Group, which engages with countries to help protect the poor and vulnerable, improve resilience to refugee and migration shocks, and ensure inclusive and accountable service delivery. We also work to strengthen the private sector, so that it can create jobs and opportunities for young people throughout the Arab world. And we promote other kinds of cooperation, particularly regional cooperation on shared public goods and in sectors like education, water, energy, and climate change.

A major goal of cooperation must also be to raise funding. Official development assistance (ODA), which last year stood at $142 billion, will never be sufficient to meet the region’s extraordinary financing needs, even if it is combined with government resources. To put this into context, ODA for 2015 amounted to just one third of Germany’s annual healthcare bill.

The United Nations trade arm, UNCTAD, estimates that, to reach the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the world will have to close a $2.5 trillion gap – annually. To achieve this, we must use innovative mechanisms to leverage and mobilise global funds, especially from the private sector.

Fortunately, the private sector has trillions of dollars that it can shift toward the effort to build a more sustainable economy and, specifically, to achieve the SDGs. But it needs encouragement, which the World Bank Group has attempted to provide, using concessional financing, investment guarantees, and matching investments. We have also worked to encourage countries to improve the policy and regulatory environment for development and growth, thereby becoming more attractive destinations for private sector resources.

But more must be done to encourage the private sector to invest in sustainable development. For starters, businesses need purpose. As a recent report by Deloitte points out, companies should be able to articulate a clear purpose that is connected to a wider social, environmental, or even economic goal. That purpose can act as a compass for the business, influencing its organisational culture and values, and guiding stakeholders’ individual and collective behaviour.

Of course, a sense of purpose alone won’t drive the private sector to shift investment toward sustainability. The Business and Sustainable Development Commission (BSDC) has reported that investments in the SDGs bring enormous returns, including new opportunities, massive efficiency gains, impetus for innovation, and improved reputations.

Once companies recognise these benefits and decide to adopt a purpose-driven approach, they need help monitoring and reporting outcomes. Specifically, they need a transparent framework that enables them more easily to share information about progress on their long-term economic, social, and environmental objectives. There are efforts underway to create such a framework, but much more needs to be done to create the right incentives for businesses to participate.

The ranks of businesses supporting the transition to a sustainable economy are growing. But, to complete that transition, particularly in Arab countries, many more companies and other private sector entities will need to step up. Of course, their pledges must be reflected and reinforced by commitments from governments, multilateral institutions, and civil society.

The road ahead is fraught with difficulties, but the Arab world has overcome similarly daunting challenges in the past. Now as much as ever, the region has the people, resources, and opportunity to thrive.

This article was originally published by Project Syndicate. Read the original article.

 

Most read

Happiness in the Arab world: should we be concerned?

Several Arab countries have low rankings in the latest comparative assessment of average happiness across the world. But as this column explains, the average is not a reliable summary statistic when applied to ordinal data. The evidence from more robust analysis of socio-economic inequality in happiness suggests that policy-makers should be less concerned about happiness indicators than the core development objective of more equitable social conditions for citizens.

It’s too early to tell what happened to the Arab Spring

Did the Arab Spring fail? This column presents a view the consensus view from ERF’s recent annual conference in Morocco: careful analysis of the fundamental drivers of democratic transitions suggests that it’s too early to tell.

Arab regional cooperation in a fragmenting world

As globalisation stalls, regionalisation has emerged as an alternative. This column argues that Arab countries need to face the new realities and move decisively towards greater mutual cooperation. A regional integration agenda that also supports domestic reforms could be an important source of growth, jobs and stability.

Reformed foreign ownership rules in UAE: the impact on business entry

In an effort to stimulate economic growth and diversify the economy, the government of the United Arab Emirates has recently implemented regulatory reform that allows 100% foreign ownership of companies operating in the country. This column examines the implications of the reform for entry of new firms in Dubai, using unique data on new business licences in the emirate.

Self-employment in MENA: the role of religiosity and personal values

How important are individual’s values and beliefs in influencing the likelihood that they will embrace the responsibilities, risks and entrepreneurial challenge of self-employment? This column presents evidence from 12 countries in the Middle East and North African region on the roles of people’s religiosity and sense of personal agency in their labour market choices.

Gender differences in business record-keeping and planning in Iraq

Only one in every ten informal businesses in Iraq is led by a woman. Yet as research summarised in this column reveals, those businesses are more likely to set budgets and sales targets, and to keep business records. This may be evidence of the role of social exclusion in motivating greater reliance on the formal bureaucratic system.

Conflict and debt in the Middle East and North Africa

With the global economy is in its third year of deceleration amid declining inflation and oil prices, the Middle East and North Africa grew by just 1.9% in 2023, with a forecast for growth in 2024 at 2.7%. In addition to heightened uncertainty brought on by the conflict centred in Gaza, many countries in the region are also grappling with pre-existing vulnerabilities, including rising debt levels. This column summarises a new report that unpacks the nature of debt in MENA – and explains the critical importance of keeping rising debt stocks in check.

Making aid-for-trade more effective in the MENA region

Aid-for-trade represents an important opportunity for developing countries to enhance their trade capacities. But the positive effect of aid-for-trade on exports can hinge on the quality of institutions in recipient countries. According to research reported in this column, in the Middle East and North Africa, it is specific aid types – such as aid to support trade policy reform and aid to enhance productive capacities – that matter most for exports.

Sanctions and carbon emissions in Iran

How are Iran’s energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide affected by the imposition of economic sanctions? This column summarises new research that analyses a range of different scenarios and which takes account of multiple economic, social and environmental dimensions, notably what happens to growth and energy intensity, and whether sanctions are lifted.

Can a free trade area in services boost trade within the Arab region?

With trade in goods among Arab countries remaining modest, trade in services could play the pivotal role of an engine of growth in economic integration within the region, as well greater participation in global value chains. This column outlines progress to date and what needs to be done to make a success of AFTAS, the Arab free trade area in services.




LinkedIn