Economic Research Forum (ERF)

February

The political economy of stalled structural reforms in MENA

There is a persistent pattern to the structural reforms that are required to underpin economic progress in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa: ambitious strategies are announced and partially implemented, but ultimately they are diluted or reversed. This column argues that the repeated stalling of reform is not primarily a failure of economic design. Rather, it reflects deep-seated political economy constraints rooted in rent dependence, elite bargaining and weak institutional credibility. Without addressing these underlying dynamics, reform efforts are likely to remain symbolic rather than transformative.

Connectivity and conflict: understanding the risks of inequality in the Middle East

While high inequality does not always lead to conflict, new research reported in this column shows that widespread internet access acts as a catalyst, transforming economic grievances into political instability. For policy-makers in the Middle East and North Africa, this means that as digital connectivity expands, the security costs of ignoring economic disparities rise dramatically. The combination of idle youth, high inequality and high-speed internet is a volatile mix.

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The green transition in MENA economies: challenges and policy pathways

The economies of the Middle East and North Africa are at a critical turning point. Global decarbonisation pressures, energy market volatility and technological transformation are increasingly challenging hydrocarbon-based growth models. This column argues that the green transition is not only an environmental necessity but also a strategic economic imperative.

Beyond job creation: how can Egypt’s gender gap in work be closed?

More than 2 million jobs are needed each year to absorb new entrants into Egypt’s labour market and raise the country’s employment rate. The job challenge is even more acute for women, whose labour force participation remains low despite recent gains in education. This column reports on the second Development Dialogue, an ERF–World Bank Group joint initiative, which brought together students, scholars, policy-makers and private sector leaders at the American University in Cairo to consider how the country’s gender gap in work can be closed.

The political economy of algorithms in the Middle East

The Middle East is entering a new political-economic era – one in which algorithms, data and artificial intelligence may become as strategically important as oil once was. Across the region, governments are investing heavily in digital infrastructure, smart governance and AI-driven economic transformation. This column outlines how AI and algorithmic governance are reshaping power, inequality and state capacity in the region.

Digitalisation, global value chains and regional integration in MENA & SSA

Participation in global value chains is vital for countries pursuing structural transformation and inclusive economic development. This column summarises new evidence on how much production processes have been globalised in Africa and the Middle East relative to other regions; whether this process has taken place with partners within or outside the region; and whether it has taken place more in manufacturing or services.

How trade policy can reduce MENA’s cereal import vulnerability

Heavy dependence on imported cereals, combined with climate change, water scarcity and geopolitical uncertainty, continues to threaten food resilience across MENA. This column explains how an inclusive trade policy can play a key role in making the region’s food security less vulnerable to shocks.




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