Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Banu Demir

Author

Banu Demir
Bilkent University

Banu Demir is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Bilkent University in Ankara, a Research Affiliate at the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London, and a Research Affiliate at the CESifo Institute in Munich. She also worked as a Research Analyst at the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) unit at the World Bank between 2006 and 2008. She holds a DPhil from the University of Oxford.

Content by this Author

Better roads improve regional economies: evidence from Turkey

Paving dirt roads and building highway networks have unsurprisingly been shown to produce substantial economic gains, but what is the impact on domestic trade from improving existing road networks? Using spatially disaggregated data on major capacity upgrades of existing road networks and domestic transactions in Turkey, this column, originally published at VoxEU, estimates a large positive impact of reduced travel times on trade and regional employment, and long-run aggregate real income gains of 2-3%.

Tackling tax evasion: how an obscure statistical law can help

Benford’s law – which suggests that the leading digits in various types of numerical data are not uniformly distributed – can be used to detect tax evasion in international trade. This column reports an application to imports data and an unexpected trade policy change in Turkey, the results of which reveal an increase in evasion after a doubling of the tax on imports that use external financing. Based on such analysis, tax authorities could decide where to channel resources in their fight against evasion.

Gaining competitiveness through trade credit: evidence from Turkey

The removal of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement quotas that governed global trade in textiles and clothing until the end of 2004 led to a big rise in competition from China for some Turkish exporters to the European Union. This VoxEU column reports evidence that Turkish exporters affected by an increase in competitive pressures responded both by lowering their prices and by extending the trade credit they offered to importers.

Highways to growth: the impact of road upgrades on Turkish trade

Investment in transport infrastructure can improve a country’s growth prospects by facilitating trade. This column reports the findings of research on the impact of a major programme of road upgrades in Turkey from the early 2000s, which converted many two-lane undivided roads into dual carriageways. Trade both within the country and with other countries has benefited significantly from these improvements.

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Trust in Lebanon’s public institutions: a challenge for the new leadership

Lebanon’s new leadership confronts daunting economic challenges amid geopolitical tensions across the wider region. As this column explains, understanding what has happened over the past decade to citizens’ trust in key public institutions – parliament, the government and the armed forces – will be a crucial part of the policy response.

Climate change: a growing threat to sustainable development in Tunisia

Tunisia’s vulnerability to extreme weather events is intensifying, placing immense pressure on vital sectors such as agriculture, energy and water resources, exacerbating inequalities and hindering social progress. This column explores the economic impacts of climate change on the country, its implications for achieving the sustainable development goals, and the urgent need for adaptive strategies and policy interventions.

Small businesses in the Great Lockdown: lessons for crisis management

Understanding big economic shocks like Covid-19 and how firms respond to them is crucial for mitigating their negative effects and accelerating the post-crisis recovery. This column reports evidence on how small and medium-sized enterprises in Tunisia’s formal business sector adapted to the pandemic and the lockdown – and draws policy lessons for when the next crisis hits.

Assessing Jordan’s progress on the sustainable development goals

Global, regional and national assessments of countries’ progress towards reaching the sustainable development goals do not always tell the same story. This column examines the case of Jordan, which is among the world’s leaders in statistical performance on the SDGs.

The threat of cybercrime in MENA economies

The MENA region’s increasing access to digital information and internet usage has led to an explosion in e-commerce and widespread interest in cryptocurrencies. At the same time, cybercrime, which includes hacking, malware, online fraud and harassment, has spread across digital networks. This column outlines the challenges.

Qatarisation: playing the long game on workforce nationalisation

As national populations across the Gulf have grown and hydrocarbon reserves declined, most Gulf countries have sought to move to a more sustainable economic model underpinned by raising the share of citizens in the productive private sector. But, as this column explains, Qatar differs from its neighbours in several important ways that could render aggressive workforce nationalization policies counterproductive. In terms of such policies, the country should chart its own path.

Economic consequences of the 2003 Bam earthquake in Iran

Over the decades, Iran has faced numerous devastating natural disasters, including the deadly 2003 Bam earthquake. This column reports evidence on the unexpected economic boost in Bam County and its neighbours after the disaster – the result of a variety of factors, including national and international aid, political mobilisation and the region’s cultural significance. Using data on the intensity of night-time lights in a geographical area, the research reveals how disaster recovery may lead to a surprising economic rebound.

Macroeconomic policy-making for sustainable development in Egypt

In recent years, economic policy in Egypt has been focused primarily on macroeconomic stabilisation to curb inflation, to reduce the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit, and to increase GDP growth. As this column explains, this has come at the expense of the country’s progress on the Sustainable Development Goals, which is rather modest compared with other economies in the region or at the same income level. Sustainable development needs to be more integrated with the conception and implementation of fiscal and monetary policies.

Education and health in Tunisia: is human capital at risk?

Tunisia has made significant strides in enhancing the skills, knowledge and health of its population, all cornerstones of economic growth and social progress. This column examines the state of the country’s education and healthcare systems, identifying structural weaknesses that could jeopardise human capital and, by extension, progress towards achieving the sustainable development goals.

Qatar’s pursuit of government excellence: promises and pitfalls

As Qatar seeks to make the transition from a hydrocarbon-based economy to a diversified, knowledge-based economy, ‘government excellence’ has been identified as a key strategic objective. This column reports what government effectiveness means in terms of delivery of public services, digitalisation of services, and control of corruption – and outlines the progress made to date on these development priorities and what the country needs to do to meet its targets.




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