Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Banu Demir

Author

Banu Demir
Bilkent University

Banu Demir is an Assistant Professor of Economics at Bilkent University in Ankara, a Research Affiliate at the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London, and a Research Affiliate at the CESifo Institute in Munich. She also worked as a Research Analyst at the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) unit at the World Bank between 2006 and 2008. She holds a DPhil from the University of Oxford.

Content by this Author

Better roads improve regional economies: evidence from Turkey

Paving dirt roads and building highway networks have unsurprisingly been shown to produce substantial economic gains, but what is the impact on domestic trade from improving existing road networks? Using spatially disaggregated data on major capacity upgrades of existing road networks and domestic transactions in Turkey, this column, originally published at VoxEU, estimates a large positive impact of reduced travel times on trade and regional employment, and long-run aggregate real income gains of 2-3%.

Tackling tax evasion: how an obscure statistical law can help

Benford’s law – which suggests that the leading digits in various types of numerical data are not uniformly distributed – can be used to detect tax evasion in international trade. This column reports an application to imports data and an unexpected trade policy change in Turkey, the results of which reveal an increase in evasion after a doubling of the tax on imports that use external financing. Based on such analysis, tax authorities could decide where to channel resources in their fight against evasion.

Gaining competitiveness through trade credit: evidence from Turkey

The removal of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement quotas that governed global trade in textiles and clothing until the end of 2004 led to a big rise in competition from China for some Turkish exporters to the European Union. This VoxEU column reports evidence that Turkish exporters affected by an increase in competitive pressures responded both by lowering their prices and by extending the trade credit they offered to importers.

Highways to growth: the impact of road upgrades on Turkish trade

Investment in transport infrastructure can improve a country’s growth prospects by facilitating trade. This column reports the findings of research on the impact of a major programme of road upgrades in Turkey from the early 2000s, which converted many two-lane undivided roads into dual carriageways. Trade both within the country and with other countries has benefited significantly from these improvements.

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Untapped talent, unrealised growth: jobs and women in the MENAAP region

Only around one in five women of working age participate in the labour markets of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan. As this column explains, the region can no longer afford to leave half its human capital underused. Expanding women’s labour force participation is central to growth and resilience in the face of looming demographic change.

Closing the gender gap in political participation in MENA

Women across the Middle East and North Africa participate less than men in politics – not only in political parties and elections, but also in petitions, boycotts, protests and strikes. This column reports evidence from ten countries showing that differences in education, employment and political attitudes explain part of this disparity, yet a significant gender gap remains.

Labour demand and informal employment in Egypt’s manufacturing sector

Egypt’s manufacturing sector faces a dual challenge of weak job creation and persistent informality. Drawing on survey evidence on business behaviour and labour market dynamics, this column explains why job creation is limited and informal work remains such an integral part of how firms organise production. The generation of more formal jobs requires a comprehensive policy approach, one that goes beyond enforcement of labour regulations to reshape the economic environment in which firms and workers make decisions.

Challenges of conflict and industrial policy for development

How effective is industrial policy as a tool for long-term economic growth and development? Against the backdrop of the conflict currently engulfing the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAAP), a new report argues that while industrial policies are widely used across the region, they can only address market failures and foster growth when they are aligned with country capabilities, implemented with accountability and backed by capable institutions.




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