Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Air pollution and infant mortality: evidence from Turkey

1036
The widespread replacement of coal with natural gas as Turkey’s key energy source over the past 25 years has led to much improved air quality. This column reports research showing that the environmental benefits of the transition to natural gas have resulted in a significant reduction in infant mortality.

In a nutshell

Deployment of a nationwide natural gas infrastructure in Turkey led to an improvement in air quality as measured by particulate matter and sulphur dioxide.

A one percentage point increase in the use of natural gas for heating and cooking in a Turkish province leads to a fall in the infant mortality rate of 4%.

That translates into roughly 348 infant lives saved in 2011 alone.

There is little dispute over the harmful effects of coal use on health. Despite this consensus, global coal consumption continues to rise and now presents a significant threat to some of the gains in public health outcomes achieved in developing countries in recent decades.

To complicate matters, there are very few viable policy options or enforcement mechanisms available to developed countries or international environmental organisations that could induce developing countries to take meaningful steps towards addressing environmental problems.

One policy instrument that is commonly used to control air pollution is regulation. But there are severe challenges of implementing regulation successfully, especially in developing countries, due to problems of weak governance and corruption. Furthermore, concerns about global climate change are often side-lined in these countries due to a strong desire to maintain robust economic growth.

Under these circumstances, natural gas is emerging as an increasingly attractive source of fuel and one that could help efforts to limit carbon emissions globally without causing interruptions in the mounting energy needs of these countries in the short run. After all, the combustion of natural gas emits virtually no sulphur oxide, which is a key component of acid rain. Emissions of total particulate matter, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxide are also much lower from burning natural gas compared with coal.

In our research, we assess whether the economic and environmental benefits of natural gas in comparison with coal translate into reduced infant mortality. To test this hypothesis, we consider the gradual displacement of coal by natural gas caused by the deployment of a nationwide natural gas infrastructure in Turkey.

To tease out the effect of switching from coal use to natural gas on infant mortality, we exploit the variation in the deployment of natural gas networks across provinces and over time. We first establish that this development has led to an improvement in air quality as measured by particulate matter and sulphur dioxide.

On establishing this connection between natural gas networks and air quality, we demonstrate that these networks caused a significant decrease in the rate of infant mortality in Turkey.

In particular, we find that a one percentage point increase in the use of natural gas for heating and cooking in a Turkish province leads to a fall in the infant mortality rate of 4%. That translates into roughly 348 infant lives saved in 2011 alone.

Our study represents the first attempt by researchers to examine the effect of a nationwide change in a fuel delivery system on infant health. With the popularity of natural gas gaining momentum thanks to new discoveries of gas fields and technological advances in extraction techniques, our results reveal the big potential environmental and health benefits of making such a change.

Further reading

Cesur, Resul, Erdal Tekin and Aydogan Ulker (2017) ‘Air Pollution and Infant Mortality: Evidence from the Expansion of Natural Gas Infrastructure’, Economic Journal 127(600): 330-62.

Tags: , , , ,

Most read

EU climate policy: potential effects on the exports of Arab countries

The carbon border adjustment mechanism aims to ensure that Europe’s green objectives are not undermined by the relocation of production to parts of the world with less ambitious climate policies – but it could impose substantial costs on developing countries that export to the European Union. This column examines the potential impact on exporters in the Arab world – and outlines possible policy responses that could mitigate the economic damage.

Financial development, corruption and informality in MENA

Reducing the extent of informality in the Middle East and North Africa would help to promote economic growth. This column reports evidence on how corruption and financial development influence the size of the informal economy in countries across the region. The efficiency of the financial sector in MENA economies reduces the corruption incentive for firms to seek to join and stay in the formal sector.

Green hydrogen production and exports: could MENA countries lead the way?

The Arab region stands at the threshold of a transformative opportunity to become a global leader in green hydrogen production and exports. But as this column explains, achieving this potential will require substantial investments, robust policy frameworks and a commitment to technological innovation.

Climate change threats and how the Arab countries should respond

The Arab region is highly vulnerable to extreme events caused by climate change. This column outlines the threats and explores what can be done to ward off disaster, not least moving away from the extraction of fossil fuels and taking advantage of the opportunities in renewable energy generation. This would both mitigate the potential for further environmental damage and act as a catalyst for more and better jobs, higher incomes and improved social outcomes.

Freedom: the missing piece in analysis of multidimensional wellbeing

Political philosophy has long emphasised the importance of freedom in shaping a meaningful life, yet it is consistently overlooked in assessments of human wellbeing across multiple dimensions. This column focuses on the freedom to express opinions, noting that it is shaped by both formal laws and informal social dynamics, fluctuating with the changing cultural context, particularly in the age of social media. Data on public opinion in Arab countries over the past decade are revealing about how this key freedom is perceived.

Child stunting in Tunisia: an alarming rise

Child stunting in Tunisia seemed to have fallen significantly over the past two decades. But as this column reports, new analysis indicates that the positive trend has now gone dramatically into reverse. Indeed, the evidence is unequivocal: the nutritional health of the country’s youngest citizens is rapidly deteriorating and requires immediate and decisive action.

Exchange rate undervaluation: the impact on participation in world trade

Can currency undervaluation influence participation in world trade through global value chains (GVC)? This column reports new evidence on the positive impact of an undervalued real exchange rate on the involvement of a country’s firms in GVCs. Undervaluation acts as an economy-wide industrial policy, supporting the competitiveness of national exports in foreign markets vis-à-vis those of other countries.

New horizons for economic transformation in the GCC countries

The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have historically relied on hydrocarbons for economic growth. As this column explains ahead of a high-level ERF policy seminar in Dubai, emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, blockchain and robotics – what some call the fourth industrial revolution – present a unique opportunity for the region to reduce its dependence on oil and make the transition to a knowledge-based economy.

Shifting public trust in governments across the Arab world

The Arab Spring, which began over a decade ago, was driven by popular distrust in governments of the region. The column reports on how public trust has shifted since then, drawing on survey data collected soon after the uprising and ten years later. The findings reveal a dynamic and often fragile landscape of trust in Arab governments from the early 2010s to the early 2020s. Growing distrust across many countries should raise concerns about future political and social instability.

Corruption in Iran: the role of oil rents

How do fluctuations in oil rents influence levels of corruption in Iran? This column reports the findings of new research, which examines the impact of increases in the country’s oil revenues on corruption, including the mechanisms through which the effects occur – higher inflation, greater public spending on the military and the weakness of democratic institutions.




LinkedIn