Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Political economy

The grand waiting game: why Lebanon’s elites postpone compromise

The year ahead: a view from the Nile

How business survives under sanctions: the experience of Iranian firms

The historical roots of state weakness and social inequities in Lebanon

How the Middle East can prepare for the coming economic storm

Most read

Sanctions and carbon emissions in Iran

How are Iran’s energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide affected by the imposition of economic sanctions? This column summarises new research that analyses a range of different scenarios and which takes account of multiple economic, social and environmental dimensions, notably what happens to growth and energy intensity, and whether sanctions are lifted.

Making aid-for-trade more effective in the MENA region

Aid-for-trade represents an important opportunity for developing countries to enhance their trade capacities. But the positive effect of aid-for-trade on exports can hinge on the quality of institutions in recipient countries. According to research reported in this column, in the Middle East and North Africa, it is specific aid types – such as aid to support trade policy reform and aid to enhance productive capacities – that matter most for exports.

Can a free trade area in services boost trade within the Arab region?

With trade in goods among Arab countries remaining modest, trade in services could play the pivotal role of an engine of growth in economic integration within the region, as well greater participation in global value chains. This column outlines progress to date and what needs to be done to make a success of AFTAS, the Arab free trade area in services.

Economic roots of early marriage in Iran

Despite the documented harms of being married off before the age of 18, particularly for girls, early marriage remains common in parts of Iran. This column summarises research that sheds light on the economic factors that drive this practice, using unique provincial data to show that poverty, inflation and income inequality are key determinants –while religiosity is not. The findings suggest that economic policies can play a crucial role in reducing the prevalence of child marriage.

Natural disaster literacy in Iran: survey evidence from Tehran

The frequent floods, earthquakes, and heat waves in the Middle East and North Africa underscore the urgent need to assess the region's preparedness for natural disasters. This column summarizes the state of 'natural disaster literacy' in various parts of Tehran, the capital of Iran and one of the most populous metropolitan areas in MENA. Data from a survey conducted in the winter of 2020/21 enabled the development of a disaster literacy index, which helps to identify the city's most vulnerable districts.

Should Arab countries join the WTO’s agreement on government procurement?

Not all members of the World Trade Organization are signatories of the institution’s Agreement on Government Procurement – the GPA. Indeed, although many developing economies are now joining the agreement or at least acquiring observer status, it has long been thought that the costs outweigh the benefits. This column re-evaluates the pros and cons of GPA accession for Arab countries.

Financial development, corruption and informality in MENA

Reducing the extent of informality in the Middle East and North Africa would help to promote economic growth. This column reports evidence on how corruption and financial development influence the size of the informal economy in countries across the region. The efficiency of the financial sector in MENA economies reduces the corruption incentive for firms to seek to join and stay in the formal sector.

EU climate policy: potential effects on the exports of Arab countries

The carbon border adjustment mechanism aims to ensure that Europe’s green objectives are not undermined by the relocation of production to parts of the world with less ambitious climate policies – but it could impose substantial costs on developing countries that export to the European Union. This column examines the potential impact on exporters in the Arab world – and outlines possible policy responses that could mitigate the economic damage.




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