Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Ioannis Bournakis

Author

Ioannis Bournakis
American University in Cairo

Dr. Ioannis Bournakis is an Associate Professor in Economics at the American University in Cairo. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Kent, UK, and an MA in Economics and Econometrics from the University of Manchester, UK. His research interests are in the areas of Applied Macroeconomics, Productivity, Regional Economics, and Innovation. He has recently published on the fiscal aspects of productivity in the UK. His work also focuses on the role of agglomeration gains in knowledge transfer at the firm and industry level. The macroeconomic work of Ioannis is on growth models, the link between financial reforms and innovation, and the impact of fiscal adjustments on productivity. More recently, Ioannis has developed a research interest in the interplay between institutional roots and the current performance of the MENA countries. Dr. Bournakis has published thirteen papers in international peer-reviewed journals among them in Regional Studies, Economic Inquiry, Review of Income and Wealth, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Economic Modelling.

Content by this Author

Income inequality convergence across Egyptian governorates

Although the aggregate level of income inequality in Egypt seems to be relatively low and stable, the figures are likely to mask large inequalities at the regional level. This column summarises new evidence on differences in income inequality across governorates, the extent to which those differences are narrowing and the effects on different parts of the income distribution.

Most read

Financing Lebanon’s Reconstruction: A Compact for Finance, Governance, and Accountability

As Lebanon embarks on another round of reconstruction, the key question is not how much financing can be mobilised, but whether each commitment is linked to a verified need, involves a transparent procurement process, is linked to clearly defined executing and operating institutions, and is based on a liability that is in line with the state’s ability to repay. This column proposes an operational mechanism for establishing that connection: a Reconstruction Finance and Accountability Compact.

Sanctions and conflict: why corruption changes the equation

Why do sanctions produce such different political outcomes across the countries that have been targeted? This column reports research examining the role of pre-existing corruption in shaping the relationship between sanctions and subsequent conflict or political instability. The evidence indicates that trade sanctions are associated with higher conflict-related deaths where pre-existing corruption is high.

The weak bread chain: cereal supply risks in six MENA economies

The Middle East and North Africa is one of the most food-import-dependent regions of the world, particularly for staple cereals such as barley, maize and wheat, and particularly in six countries – Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia. As this column reports, diversifying import sources has become an essential strategy for strengthening food security and improving resilience to geopolitical and climate-related disruptions.

The risks of a two-speed AI economy in MENA

Much of the debate about artificial intelligence in the Middle East and North Africa focuses on how many jobs it will replace. As this column explains, the more important challenge is that the new technology is likely to create a two-speed labour market, where countries with the capacity to invest in digital infrastructure and skills move rapidly ahead while others struggle to keep pace. Unless governments combine credible national reforms with targeted regional cooperation, AI could widen, not reduce, the economic divides across MENA.

Why energy efficiency still struggles to attract finance in Egypt

Egypt has reduced energy subsidies and gradually adjusted domestic energy prices toward cost-recovery levels, improving the economic case for energy efficiency investments – but financing has not kept pace. Drawing on structured interviews with banks, developers and public officials, this column traces why energy efficiency projects in the country still struggle to attract capital, and sets out how a ‘financing ladder’ used elsewhere – from revolving funds to risk guarantees to green bonds – could close the gap.

From mega-investment to mega-productivity: closing MENA’s conversion gap

Across the Middle East and North Africa, governments are investing heavily in infrastructure, technology, diversification and new industries. Yet capital accumulation alone does not guarantee productivity growth. As this column argues, the region’s deeper challenge is its ‘investment-to-productivity conversion gap’: ensuring that large-scale investment translates consistently into stronger firms, technological diffusion, skills and better jobs. A different metric of success is required: not how much capital is deployed, but how much productive capability that capital leaves behind.

Iran is still selling oil. But can it replace tomorrow’s barrels?

Iran’s oil exports have not disappeared, but continued sales may hide a deeper vulnerability. Arash Irani argues that selling barrels already in the logistics system is not the same as generating new export flows, and proposes five indicators to help policymakers judge whether trade under disruption is sustainable or merely running down its stocks.

The political economy of turning AI adoption into firm productivity in MENA

Generative AI can make individual tasks faster without making firms more productive. This column argues that across the Middle East and North Africa, turning AI adoption into better performance depends on organisational capabilities and on agreements within firms over authority, workloads and rewards. Public support can help by financing those capabilities through transparent selection, milestone-based assistance and independent evaluation.

Uneven growth, shallow integration: the case for deeper MENA cooperation

The war-related shock of 2026 has pushed economies across the Middle East and North Africa onto sharply different growth paths. This column argues that these short-term differences say little about long-term income convergence, but that they expose a more durable weakness: shallow regional integration. It proposes three measures to make MENA cooperation deliver tangible economic benefits.

Losing comparative advantage: the erosion of Lebanon’s export base

Lebanon's competitive exports were worth about $3 billion in both 2018 and 2022, but the steady total hides a narrower base. Mohamad Abou Haidar and Ali Fakih show that more than a third of that value rests on precious metals and scrap. They argue that export policy should start by establishing how much of Lebanon's export value reflects domestic production, and should support products on the basis of evidence on value added and viability rather than on trade rankings alone.




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