Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Ernest Sergenti

Author

Ernest Sergenti
Senior Economist, The World Bank

Ernest John Sergenti is a Senior Research Economist in the Office of the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa region. Ernest returned to the World Bank in 2017 after three years as an Assistant Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service, where he was the lead analyst for the Caucasus and Central Asia. Within the World Bank, Ernest has also worked as a macro economist, within the Western and Central Africa and South Asia regions, specializing in resource-rich economies, productivity analysis, macroeconomic modeling, and political institutional analysis. Ernest was also a Research Fellow and Statistical Consultant at Harvard University’s Institute for Quantitative Social Science. He holds a PhD in Political Science, with concentrations in Political Economy and Econometrics, from New York University and a Master of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics. Ernest has co-authored several publications, including articles in the Journal of Political Economy and the American Journal of Political Science, on economic growth, political party competition, the effectiveness of UN Peacekeeping operations, and the impacts of economic shocks on civil conflict.

Content by this Author

MENA’s unexpectedly low inflation

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, inflation rates in most countries of the Middle East and North Africa have been lower than in Europe and the United States. This column explores why – and what are the implications for government budgets.

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Empowering Egypt’s young people for the future of work

Egypt’s most urgent priority is creating more and better jobs for its growing youth population. This column reports on the first Development Dialogue, an ERF–World Bank joint initiative, which brought together students, scholars, policy-makers and private sector leaders at Cairo University to confront the country’s labour market challenge. The conversation explored why youth inclusion matters, what the data show and how dialogue and the forthcoming Country Economic Memorandum can inform practical pathways to accelerate job creation.

Preparing youth for the workforce of the future

As economies undergo rapid digital and green transformations, young people face a growing mismatch between their skills and what the modern labour market needs. This column argues that enabling youth to compete in the workforce of the future requires systemic reforms in education, skills formation and labour market institutions, especially in developing economies.

Connectivity and conflict: understanding the risks of inequality in the Middle East

While high inequality does not always lead to conflict, new research reported in this column shows that widespread internet access acts as a catalyst, transforming economic grievances into political instability. For policy-makers in the Middle East and North Africa, this means that as digital connectivity expands, the security costs of ignoring economic disparities rise dramatically. The combination of idle youth, high inequality and high-speed internet is a volatile mix.

The political economy of stalled structural reforms in MENA

There is a persistent pattern to the structural reforms that are required to underpin economic progress in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa: ambitious strategies are announced and partially implemented, but ultimately they are diluted or reversed. This column argues that the repeated stalling of reform is not primarily a failure of economic design. Rather, it reflects deep-seated political economy constraints rooted in rent dependence, elite bargaining and weak institutional credibility. Without addressing these underlying dynamics, reform efforts are likely to remain symbolic rather than transformative.

Closing the gender gap in political participation in MENA

Women across the Middle East and North Africa participate less than men in politics – not only in political parties and elections, but also in petitions, boycotts, protests and strikes. This column reports evidence from ten countries showing that differences in education, employment and political attitudes explain part of this disparity, yet a significant gender gap remains.




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