In policy circles across Amman, Cairo and Tunis, a familiar debate is re-emerging with renewed urgency: how can governments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) secure essential resources like water and food in the face of escalating climate pressures and geopolitical disruptions?

Recent evidence suggests that the region is approaching a tipping point. As highlighted by Akram et al (2024), MENA holds only 1-2% of the world’s renewable freshwater yet sustains over 6% of the global population. Most countries in the region are already classified as water-scarce. Climate projections indicate intensifying droughts, groundwater depletion and extreme weather events, which threaten both water availability and agricultural productivity.

The region’s food systems are equally fragile. Over half of MENA’s food is imported, leaving it acutely exposed to global market shocks. Arafat (2024) describes how food insecurity has been ‘securitised’: while it is framed as a national security concern, it is often addressed through short-term policy fixes, subsidies or emergency imports rather than through comprehensive reforms to domestic agriculture and supply chains.

One contributing factor to this vulnerability is the inefficient use of water in agriculture, which consumes more than 80% of available freshwater resources. Much of this is lost to evaporation and leakage due to outdated irrigation infrastructure.

At the same time, fragmented governance structures prevent coordinated planning. Ministries responsible for water, agriculture, energy and environmental affairs often operate in silos, which delays integrated responses and limits innovation.

Compounding the challenge is political sensitivity around water pricing. Many countries offer heavily subsidised water, making it difficult to invest in modern infrastructure or enforce efficiency standards. Meanwhile, urban expansion and demographic growth continue to increase the demand for water, food and energy, further straining already stretched resources.

In recent years, several countries have introduced projects such as solar-powered desalination plants, re-use of treated wastewater, and precision irrigation pilots. But these remain localised efforts, often underfunded or disconnected from broader policy goals. Rural areas where the effects of water and food scarcity are often most acute rarely benefit from these innovations.

Lessons from other regions offer useful insights. For example, in my comparative study of green building transitions in Japan, Taiwan, and Thailand (Gholami, 2025), I find that successful environmental reforms share three features:

• Clear, time-bound national targets.
• Strong inter-ministerial coordination platforms.
• Transparent monitoring and reporting systems aligned with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards.

These principles can be adapted to MENA’s context to support integrated approaches to water and food security.

What can be done?

Adopt measurable national benchmarks

Governments should establish binding targets for water-use efficiency and local food production. These benchmarks must be linked to budget allocations, regularly tracked, and publicly reported to build credibility.

Invest in resilient and inclusive infrastructure

While desalination remains important, diversified approaches such as rainwater harvesting, aquifer recharge and decentralised treatment systems are critical, especially in rural and underserved areas.

Promote regional cooperation on transboundary water governance

Rivers such as the Euphrates, the Nile and the Tigris cross borders. Effective management demands regional frameworks that facilitate dialogue, joint planning and early warning systems to avoid conflict.

Mandate transparent reporting

Standardised disclosures on water consumption, agricultural output and food imports can help to identify gaps and improve performance. Public access to such data also enhances accountability and can attract donor support.

Prioritise equity and rural inclusion

Policies should focus on supporting smallholder farmers with access to finance, climate-smart technologies and extension services. Social protections are also essential to build adaptive capacity in the most vulnerable communities.

Conclusion

Climate change is not the sole driver of MENA’s food and water crisis, but it is a multiplier of existing weaknesses. Without decisive reforms, these stresses could undermine development, fuel migration and deepen inequality. But if addressed proactively, they offer an opportunity for transformation and building resilience.

As Boutros Boutros-Ghali once predicted, ‘The next war in the Middle East will be over water.’ His warning is more relevant today than ever. But with strong leadership, regional cooperation, and a commitment to inclusive development, MENA can change course.

It is time to move beyond fragmented pilot projects and toward a regional vision for sustainability. The tools exist: what is needed is the political will and coordinated action to use them.

Further reading

Arafat, AA (2024) ‘Food Security in the MENA Region’, in Human Security in the Middle East and North Africa.

Akram, W, et al (2024) ‘Water and Food Security in the Middle Eastern and Northern African Countries’, in The Water, Climate, and Food Nexus.

Gholami, A (2025) ‘Building net-zero futures: Asian lessons for MENA’s construction sector’, The Forum.

World Bank (2024) Beyond Scarcity: Water Security in the Middle East and North Africa.

UNEP, United Nations Environment Programme (2023) Water Scarcity and Climate in MENA: Strategic Assessment.