Economic Research Forum (ERF)

The impact of climate change and resource scarcity on conflict in MENA

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The interrelationships between climate change, food production, economic instability and violent conflict have become increasingly relevant in recent decades, with climate-induced economic shocks intensifying social and political tensions, particularly in resource-constrained regions like MENA. This column reports new evidence on the impact of climate change on economic and food production outcomes – and how economic stability, agricultural productivity and shared water resources affect conflict. While international aid, economic growth and food security reduce the likelihood of conflict, resource scarcity and shared water basins contribute to high risks of conflict.

In a nutshell

Limited water resources and high dependency on agriculture increase economic vulnerability, contributing to regional instability; shared water basins and rivers escalate conflicts, especially when the resources are under strain from upstream withdrawals.

Economic growth and well-directed international economic aid stabilise food production and support local economies, reducing the probability of conflict.

Policies that prioritise climate resilience and regional cooperation are essential for mitigating conflict risks in the face of environmental threats; MENA countries can work towards building sustainable peace in a region highly vulnerable to climate-induced disruptions.

Extreme climate events, such as prolonged droughts and heatwaves, have become more frequent since the mid-20th century, and they are projected to intensify. For countries that are heavily dependent on agriculture, including those in the MENA region, climate-induced declines in productivity directly affect economic growth and exacerbate food insecurity, intensifying competition over limited resources. Consequently, these economic shocks may increase social tensions and, in some cases, trigger or exacerbate violent conflicts.

Two main theories dominate discussion of the relationship between climate and conflict:

Resource abundance: Abundant resources can increase risks of conflict due to what is known as the ‘resource curse’. According to this hypothesis, abundance of natural resources may raise the likelihood of conflict. Resource-rich countries, especially those that have large amounts of oil, often fail to capitalise on their resource abundance, resulting in increased conflict, sluggish economic growth and economic instability (Humphreys, 2005).

Resource scarcity: Scarcity of resources, such as water and arable land, drives conflict by increasing competition among groups (Homer-Dixon, 1994). Weather shocks harm the productivity of rainfed agriculture or cattle herding, which in turn reduces the opportunity cost of participation in conflict, aggravating tensions or exacerbating competition for diminishing resources.

The latter effect is intensified in regions where agricultural productivity relies significantly on climatic conditions, as in the MENA countries, where decreasing precipitation and rising temperatures are a threat to water availability.

Overall, in regions with limited resilience to climate impacts, such as those with low adaptive capacity and significant reliance on rain-fed agriculture, economic shocks resulting from climate events increase the risk of conflict, especially in politically marginalised or economically disadvantaged communities.

Key findings

Economic growth and food security reduce conflict risk

The findings of our research show a negative relationship between conflict and economic stability, using GDP and agricultural productivity as indices. Higher food production and crop productivity reduce the need for international aid, which can act as a stabilising factor against socio-political unrest. Stable economic conditions may provide employment security and improved standards of living, which in turn reduce the likelihood of conflict (Giovanis and Ozdamar, 2024).

The role of international aid

When agriculture is disrupted by climate events, international aid often becomes necessary to address food insecurity. Aid can reduce the incidence of conflict by cushioning the effects of climate shocks. Providing food and agricultural support helps to stabilise communities hit by droughts and heatwaves, ultimately lowering the risk of conflict (Giovanis and Ozdamar, 2024).

Natural resource rents increase conflict risk

Consistent with the idea of the resource curse, countries with high natural resource rents from oil and other extractive industries face a higher risk of conflict. Resource wealth fosters economic dependency and inequality, often fuelling political corruption and regional grievances. This dynamic is especially evident in countries with limited economic diversification, where a concentration of wealth heightens socio-economic disparities and exacerbates tensions (Humphreys, 2005; Giovanis and Ozdamar, 2024).

Shared water basins as conflict triggers

Shared water resources are a significant source of conflict in arid regions. Countries that share water basins experience higher tension due to competition over limited water resources. The lack of cooperative water management frameworks exacerbates these risks, particularly as climate change reduces water availability and increases variability in river flow (Brochmann and Gleditsch, 2012; Giovanis and Ozdamar, 2024).

Temperature thresholds affect economic outcomes

Critical temperature thresholds affecting economic indicators are identified in our analysis. In particular, GDP and food production decline when temperatures exceed 18-20°C. Increasing temperatures reduce agricultural yields and food security, which in turn creates economic instability and increases the risk of conflict (Giovanis and Ozdamar, 2024). This threshold illustrates the sensitivity of MENA’s agriculture-based economies to climate variability (Dell et al., 2014).

Policy implications

To address the climate-conflict nexus effectively, the MENA region requires coordinated policy responses focusing on climate adaptation, economic diversification and water management.

Enhance climate resilience in agriculture

To mitigate the impact of climate change on food security and economic stability, MENA countries should invest in climate-resilient agricultural practices, such as drought-resistant crops and efficient irrigation systems. Policies should focus on increasing food production efficiency and crop yields in response to anticipated climate variability.

Strengthen regional cooperation for shared water management

The reduction of conflict risk requires the development of cooperative agreements on shared water resources. Regional initiatives that promote equitable water sharing and joint management of river basins, supported by robust dispute resolution mechanisms, can help to mitigate cross-border water tensions.

Diversify economies away from resource dependence

Economic diversification strategies are vital for reducing dependence on natural resource rents. Promoting sectors outside extractive industries can help MENA countries to build more resilient economies that are less prone to resource-driven conflicts.

Expand targeted international aid for climate vulnerability

Climate resilience should be the priority of international aid programmes, including agriculture and water management. Aid should assist climate-vulnerable communities in building adaptive capacities, reducing their dependence on external help and stabilising local economies.

Incorporate climate variables into conflict monitoring systems

Recognising climate as a critical driver of conflict, early warning systems should include climate and environmental data. By integrating these alerts into existing policy-making processes of conflict prevention, a more proactive response to these risks is possible by allowing policy-makers to allocate resources accordingly as risks begin to emerge.

Conclusion and future directions

Climate change is reshaping resource availability and conflict dynamics in MENA. The inherently interwoven nature of climate change, economic growth and conflict in the region requires a nuanced policy response to address immediate and long-term drivers of instability.

Future research should build on the mechanisms through which climate and economic variables interact to shape conflict risks and on the understanding of how targeted interventions in climate adaptation and regional cooperation might alleviate such risks.

The MENA region is confronting growing economic stress from climate change. Coordinated actions can help to stabilise economies, secure water resources and prevent conflict. Effective policies that prioritise climate resilience and regional cooperation are essential for mitigating conflict risks in the face of climate change. A multi-faceted, adaptive approach to building sustainable peace and stability in MENA countries can be embraced.

Reducing conflict risk and fostering sustainable development across the region requires investing in climate-resilient agriculture, enhancing international aid and establishing cooperative water-sharing frameworks. International aid to build resilience will be vital in getting the region to adapt to climate challenges and stay stable.

Since MENA is a highly interdependent region, climate adaptation policies will only be effective if they are undertaken at the national, regional and international levels. Addressing these challenges now will help to ensure a resilient and more secure future for the MENA countries.

Further reading

Brochmann, M, and NP Gleditsch (2012) ‘Shared rivers and conflict: A reconsideration’, Political Geography 31(8): 519-27.

Dell, M, BF Jones and BA Olken (2014) ‘What do we learn from the weather? The new climate-economy literature’, Journal of Economic Literature 52(3): 740-98.

Giovanis, E, and O Ozdamar (2024) ‘Does the environment matter? Climate change, transboundary effects, economic growth and conflicts’, ERF Working Paper No. 1725.

Homer-Dixon, TF (1994) ‘Environmental scarcities and violent conflict: evidence from cases’, International Security: 19(1): 5-40 Humphreys, M (2005) ‘Natural resources, conflict, and conflict resolution: Uncovering the mechanisms’, Journal of Conflict Resolution 49(4): 508-37.

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  • Eleftherios Giovanis
    Eleftherios Giovanis
    Associate Professor of Economics, Department of International Trade and Business, Izmir Bakircay University
  • Oznur Ozdamar
    Oznur Ozdamar
    Department of Economics, Izmir Bakircay University

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