Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Egypt’s labour market: new survey data for evidence-based decision-making

1582
As Egypt faces substantial social and economic shifts, understanding the labour market is crucial for designing policies that promote employment and inclusive economic growth. This column introduces the latest wave of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey, which provides fresh, nationally representative data that are vital for examining these dynamics.

In a nutshell

The Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) 2023 – the fifth wave of a nationally representative longitudinal survey that began in 1998 – offers an unparalleled opportunity for researchers to examine the transformation of Egypt’s labour market, economy and society over the past 25 years.

The survey, which includes both household and individual questionnaires, was conducted between September and December 2023; it covers a wide range of topics, including employment, education, training, time use and new areas, such as gig work and green jobs.

The 2023 wave sampled 17,784 households and 70,636 individuals; with the continued tracking of individuals and households from previous waves, the ELMPS 2023 provides crucial data for policy-makers focused pressing labour market issues and developing evidence-based policies for the future.

The Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS) 2023 was conducted by ERF, in collaboration with Egypt’s Ministry of Planning, Economic Development, and International Cooperation, and the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (OAMDI, 2024; Assaad and Krafft, 2024).

In addition to Egypt, comparable labour market panel surveys have been conducted in Jordan in 2010 and 2016, in Tunisia in 2014 and in Sudan in 2022 (OAMDI, 2016, 2018, 2023; Krafft et al, 2024; Krafft and Assaad, 2021; Assaad et al, 2016). A third wave for Jordan is planned for late 2024.

The 2023 wave for Egypt builds on the previous waves from 1998, 2006, 2012 and 2018. One of the key advantages of this longitudinal survey is its ability to track individuals as they form new households, providing a detailed picture of demographic and labour market changes. In addition, a refresher sample of 2,000 new households was included to ensure that the survey remains nationally representative of the Egyptian population in 2023.

Survey highlights

The ELMPS 2023 features comprehensive questionnaires for both households and individuals, addressing such topics as:

  • Employment and unemployment: Detailed questions on labour market history, job characteristics, gig work and green jobs.
  • Education and training: Educational attainment, training experiences and skills acquisition, with a new focus on digital skills.
  • Time use: A 24-hour diary for adults and adolescents, and a seven-day reference for children, capturing how individuals allocate their time across activities.
  • Technology and finance: Digital payment use and mobile money trends, which are particularly relevant for analysing the impact of ‘fintech’ on employment and financial inclusion.

The survey also includes new questions on social norms around gender and work, providing richer insights into factors influencing women’s participation in the labour market.

Addressing attrition and expanding data

As with previous waves and most panel surveys, the ELMPS 2023 faced challenges related to sample attrition – where respondents from earlier waves could not be reached in 2023. But the household attrition rate in 2023 was reduced to 12%, the lowest among such surveys to date.

While some households were lost due to migration or death, a substantial portion of the 2018 sample was successfully recontacted. Models predicting the likelihood of attrition were used to adjust weights, ensuring that the data remain representative of Egypt’s population.

Comparison with other surveys

Results from ELMPS 2023 data are similar to Egypt’s official Labor Force Survey (LFS) and the Egyptian Family Health Survey (EFHS) on key demographic indicators, such as age distribution and household size. Key labour market indicators, such as labour force participation, employment and unemployment, are overall very similar between ELMPS 2023 and the LFS.

But among women, the ELMPS tends to detect slightly more employment and less unemployment. This is likely to be due to its focus on capturing responses from the individual him or herself.

Opportunities for future research

The rich data of the ELMPS make it a critical complement to high-frequency data sources like the LFS, offering deeper insights into the structure of Egypt’s labour market. Public-use microdata from the ELMPS 2023 will be available through ERF’s Open Access Microdata Initiative (OAMDI) in October 2024.

The rich dataset is expected to drive new research on a wide range of topics, including the transition to digital and green jobs, the economic participation of women, and the impact of recent economic reforms on household wellbeing.

ELMPS 2023 is an essential tool for both researchers and policy-makers. It provides a comprehensive view of labour market dynamics in Egypt, shedding light on critical issues, such as youth employment, gender disparities and the rise of non-traditional forms of work. As Egypt’s labour market continues to evolve, this survey will serve as a cornerstone for evidence-based decision-making.

Further reading

Assaad, Ragui, Samir Ghazouani, Caroline Krafft and Dominique Rolando (2016) ‘Introducing the Tunisia Labor Market Panel Survey 2014’, IZA Journal of Labor and Development 5(15): 1-21.

Assaad, Ragui, and Caroline Krafft (2024) ‘Introducing the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey 2023’, forthcoming ERF Working Paper.

Krafft, Caroline, and Ragui Assaad (2021) ‘Introducing the Jordan Labor Market Panel Survey 2016’, IZA Journal of Development and Migration 12(8): 1-42.

Krafft, Caroline, Ragui Assaad and Ruby Cheung (2024) ‘Introducing the Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey 2022’, Demographic Research 51(4): 81-106.

OAMDI (2016) ‘Labor Market Panel Surveys (LMPS). Version 2.0 of Licensed Data Files; TLMPS 2014′, ERF.

OAMDI (2018) ‘Labor Market Panel Surveys (LMPS). Version 1.1 of Licensed Data Files; JLMPS 2016’, ERF.

OAMDI (2023) ‘Labor Market Panel Surveys (LMPS). Version 2.0 of Licensed Data Files; SLMPS 2022’, ERF.

OAMDI (2024) ‘Labor Market Panel Surveys (LMPS). Version 1.0 of Licensed Data Files; ELMPS 2023’, ERF.

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

  • Ragui Assaad
    Ragui Assaad
    Professor and Freeman Chair for International Economic Policy, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota
  • Caroline Krafft
    Caroline Krafft
    Associate Professor, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota
  • Esraa Mahmoud
    Esraa Mahmoud
    Ph.D. Student, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota

Most read

Trust in Lebanon’s public institutions: a challenge for the new leadership

Lebanon’s new leadership confronts daunting economic challenges amid geopolitical tensions across the wider region. As this column explains, understanding what has happened over the past decade to citizens’ trust in key public institutions – parliament, the government and the armed forces – will be a crucial part of the policy response.

Climate change: a growing threat to sustainable development in Tunisia

Tunisia’s vulnerability to extreme weather events is intensifying, placing immense pressure on vital sectors such as agriculture, energy and water resources, exacerbating inequalities and hindering social progress. This column explores the economic impacts of climate change on the country, its implications for achieving the sustainable development goals, and the urgent need for adaptive strategies and policy interventions.

Small businesses in the Great Lockdown: lessons for crisis management

Understanding big economic shocks like Covid-19 and how firms respond to them is crucial for mitigating their negative effects and accelerating the post-crisis recovery. This column reports evidence on how small and medium-sized enterprises in Tunisia’s formal business sector adapted to the pandemic and the lockdown – and draws policy lessons for when the next crisis hits.

Assessing Jordan’s progress on the sustainable development goals

Global, regional and national assessments of countries’ progress towards reaching the sustainable development goals do not always tell the same story. This column examines the case of Jordan, which is among the world’s leaders in statistical performance on the SDGs.

Qatarisation: playing the long game on workforce nationalisation

As national populations across the Gulf have grown and hydrocarbon reserves declined, most Gulf countries have sought to move to a more sustainable economic model underpinned by raising the share of citizens in the productive private sector. But, as this column explains, Qatar differs from its neighbours in several important ways that could render aggressive workforce nationalization policies counterproductive. In terms of such policies, the country should chart its own path.

The threat of cybercrime in MENA economies

The MENA region’s increasing access to digital information and internet usage has led to an explosion in e-commerce and widespread interest in cryptocurrencies. At the same time, cybercrime, which includes hacking, malware, online fraud and harassment, has spread across digital networks. This column outlines the challenges.

Economic consequences of the 2003 Bam earthquake in Iran

Over the decades, Iran has faced numerous devastating natural disasters, including the deadly 2003 Bam earthquake. This column reports evidence on the unexpected economic boost in Bam County and its neighbours after the disaster – the result of a variety of factors, including national and international aid, political mobilisation and the region’s cultural significance. Using data on the intensity of night-time lights in a geographical area, the research reveals how disaster recovery may lead to a surprising economic rebound.

Macroeconomic policy-making for sustainable development in Egypt

In recent years, economic policy in Egypt has been focused primarily on macroeconomic stabilisation to curb inflation, to reduce the fiscal deficit and the current account deficit, and to increase GDP growth. As this column explains, this has come at the expense of the country’s progress on the Sustainable Development Goals, which is rather modest compared with other economies in the region or at the same income level. Sustainable development needs to be more integrated with the conception and implementation of fiscal and monetary policies.

The impact of climate change and resource scarcity on conflict in MENA

The interrelationships between climate change, food production, economic instability and violent conflict have become increasingly relevant in recent decades, with climate-induced economic shocks intensifying social and political tensions, particularly in resource-constrained regions like MENA. This column reports new evidence on the impact of climate change on economic and food production outcomes – and how economic stability, agricultural productivity and shared water resources affect conflict. While international aid, economic growth and food security reduce the likelihood of conflict, resource scarcity and shared water basins contribute to high risks of conflict.

Qatar’s pursuit of government excellence: promises and pitfalls

As Qatar seeks to make the transition from a hydrocarbon-based economy to a diversified, knowledge-based economy, ‘government excellence’ has been identified as a key strategic objective. This column reports what government effectiveness means in terms of delivery of public services, digitalisation of services, and control of corruption – and outlines the progress made to date on these development priorities and what the country needs to do to meet its targets.