Economic Research Forum (ERF)

Paul Collier

Author

Paul Collier
University of Oxford

Paul Collier is a professor of economics and public policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford. His research covers fragile states, restoring growth in African economies, the implications of group psychology for development, migration and refugees, urbanization in poor countries, and the crisis in modern capitalism, which is the subject of his most recent book, The Future of Capitalism. He received a knighthood in 2014 for his services in promoting research and policy change in Africa, and has been listed as one of the 100 most influential public thinkers in five of the past ten years.

Content by this Author

Productive jobs: rebasing growth in the MENA region

With the oil rents of the Middle East set to wane, it is essential to generate opportunities for jobs that are sufficiently productive to sustain the living standards that the population has come to expect. As Paul Collier explained in the opening keynote address at ERF’s 25th annual conference, the bare bones of building productivity at twenty-first century levels are not mysterious: clusters of firms capable of innovation have to be built and linked to vocational training that equips a workforce with the skills that firms need.

Transformation under radical uncertainty: the challenge for MENA

Shifting from a centralised rent-seeking society to a decentralised productive society is such a major transformation that it cannot be fully planned in advance. As Paul Collier explained in his keynote address at ERF’s 25th annual conference, it is subject to ‘radical uncertainty’ and as such depends on igniting rapid social learning so that society ‘error-corrects’ as it attempts change. His analysis draws lessons for MENA countries.

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Global value chains and sustainable development

What is the role of exchange rate undervaluation in promoting participation in global value chains by firms in developing countries? What is the impact of the stringency of national environmental regulations on firms’ GVC participation? And how do firms’ political connections affect their participation in GVCs? These questions will be explored for the MENA region at a special session of the ERF annual conference, which takes place in Cairo in April 2025.

Adoption of decentralised solar energy: lessons from Palestinian households

The experience of Palestinian households offers a compelling case study of behavioural adaptation to energy poverty via solar water heater adoption. This column highlights the key barriers to solar energy adoption in terms of both the socio-economic status and dwellings of potential users. Policy-makers need to address these barriers to ensure a just and equitable transition, particularly for households in conflict-affected areas across the MENA region.

Migration, human capital and labour markets in MENA

Migration is a longstanding and integral part of the MENA region’s economic and social fabric, with profound implications for labour markets and human capital development. To harness the potential of migration for promoting economic and social development, policy-makers must aim to deliver mutual benefits for origin countries, host countries and migrants. Such a triple-win strategy requires better data, investment in return migration, skill partnerships, reduced remittance costs and sustained support for host countries.

Shifting gears: how the private sector can be an engine of growth in MENA

Businesses are a key source of productivity growth, innovation and jobs. But in the Middle East and North Africa, the private sector is not dynamic and the region has a long history of low growth. This column summarises a new report explaining how a brighter future for MENA’s private sector is within reach if governments rethink their role and firms harness talent effectively.

Building net-zero futures: Asian lessons for MENA’s construction sector

Three big economies in Asia are achieving carbon neutrality in construction. This column draws lessons from Japan, Taiwan and Thailand – and explains why, given the vast solar potential and growing focus on environmental, social and governance matters in the Middle East and North Africa, governments in the region must adopt similarly ambitious policies and partnerships.

Losing the key to joy: how oil rents undermine patience and economic growth

How does reliance on oil revenues shape economic behaviour worldwide? This column reports new research showing that oil rents weaken governance, eroding patience – a key driver of economic growth and, according to the 13th century Persian poet Rumi, ‘the key to joy’. Policy measures to counter the damage include enhancing transparency in oil revenue management, strengthening independent oversight institutions and ensuring that sovereign wealth funds have robust rules of governance.




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