Tunisia stands at a critical crossroads in its pursuit of the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Despite notable progress in key areas, climate change has emerged as a formidable disruptor, threatening to reverse socio-economic gains and undermine long-term development plans. Tunisia’s vulnerability to extreme weather events, including prolonged droughts, heatwaves and erratic rainfall, has intensified, placing immense pressure on vital economic sectors such as agriculture, energy and water resources.

The compounded effects of these climatic changes are exacerbating existing social inequalities and hindering the country’s ability to meet its SDG targets. Here, we explore the economic and social impacts of climate change on Tunisia, its implications for the SDGs and the urgent need for adaptive strategies and policy interventions.

The impact of climate on economic stability

In recent years, Tunisia has faced escalating climate change effects, notably rising temperatures, prolonged droughts and erratic rainfall patterns. The average annual temperature has increased by approximately 1.4°C since 1901, with a notable rise of 0.37°C per decade over the past 30 years. This warming trend has intensified heatwaves, particularly during summer months, leading to more frequent and severe episodes.

Concurrently, Tunisia has experienced a 3% decrease in average annual precipitation over the past three decades, exacerbating water scarcity issues. This decline has had a significant impact on agriculture, a crucial sector for the Tunisian economy, reducing crop yields and threatening food security.

Coastal regions are also under threat from accelerated erosion and rising sea levels, endangering ecosystems and local communities. Projections indicate that sea-level rise could lead to the loss of substantial portions of Tunisia’s northern and eastern coastlines due to inundation and erosion, resulting in the loss of agricultural land, infrastructure and urban areas.

These trends underscore the urgent need for robust climate adaptation strategies, as the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events threaten to exacerbate social and economic vulnerabilities across the country.

The agricultural sector, which is central to Tunisia’s economy, has been hit hard by the adverse effects of climate change. Agriculture accounts for nearly 10% of Tunisia’s GDP and a high portion of the workforce, particularly in rural areas. But the sector’s dependence on stable weather patterns makes it especially vulnerable to climatic disruptions.

Prolonged droughts and inconsistent rainfall have led to declining crop yields, affecting staple crops like wheat, olives and citrus fruits. For example, the severe drought of 2023 resulted in an 11% drop in agricultural output, exacerbating food insecurity and putting immense pressure on rural communities that rely heavily on farming for their livelihoods.

The decline in agricultural productivity has far-reaching economic consequences. As crop yields decrease, food prices rise, leading to inflationary pressures that disproportionately affect low-income households. The reduction in farm incomes also weakens rural purchasing power, which in turn affects local businesses and services, creating a cycle of economic downturn in already vulnerable regions.

The economic instability caused by climate effects threatens to derail Tunisia’s progress towards SDG 1 (no poverty) and SDG 2 (zero hunger), highlighting the urgent need for climate-resilient agricultural practices and enhanced support for rural farmers.

Energy sector vulnerabilities

Tunisia’s energy sector also faces significant challenges in the face of climate change. Despite the government’s ambitious commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, the transition to renewable energy has been slow. The country’s energy mix remains dominated by fossil fuels, with limited progress in scaling up solar and wind power projects. Bureaucratic delays, inconsistent policy support and a lack of investment incentives have hindered the expansion of the renewable energy sector.

The continued reliance on fossil fuels not only undermines Tunisia’s climate mitigation efforts (SDG 13), but also increases the country’s exposure to global energy price volatility, complicating efforts to achieve affordable and clean energy (SDG 7).

The slow pace of the energy transition has significant implications for Tunisia’s broader economic stability. Fossil fuel subsidies, which constitute a large share of public spending, strain the national budget and divert resources away from critical investments in sustainable infrastructure. Moreover, the energy sector’s carbon-intensive profile contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, exacerbating the impacts of climate change and further straining the country’s limited natural resources.

Accelerating the adoption of renewable energy sources is essential not only for reducing carbon emissions but also for enhancing energy security and promoting economic diversification.

The impact on water security

Water scarcity exacerbates socio-economic vulnerabilities, especially in rural and agricultural communities. The lack of access to clean and reliable water sources limits agricultural productivity, increases health risks and constrains economic activities. Issues of water scarcity, rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns could reduce agricultural yields by 10-30% by 2050.

In addition to threatening food security, this could lead to an increase in rural unemployment and indirectly affect children’s education and health. Rural households, which often rely on small-scale farming, are disproportionately affected, facing reduced crop yields and higher costs for irrigation. In urban areas, water shortages can disrupt industrial processes and exacerbate public health issues, compounding existing socio-economic challenges.

Addressing water scarcity through improved water management and infrastructure upgrades is crucial for safeguarding Tunisia’s progress towards SDG 6 (clean water and sanitation).

Economic growth and social inequality

The economic impacts of climate change extend beyond the agricultural and energy sectors, affecting overall economic growth and job creation. Extreme weather events and prolonged droughts disrupt supply chains, damage infrastructure and lead to higher costs for businesses, which in turn stifles economic activity. The reduction in agricultural productivity, coupled with increased energy costs, dampens investor confidence and limits opportunities for economic diversification.

Tunisia’s unemployment rate rose slightly from 15.3% in the second quarter of 2023 to 15.6% a year later, one of the highest rates in the region. The unemployment rate for women was particularly high at 21.1%, reflecting persistent gender gaps in the labour market.

While the rate of labour force participation has increased slightly – from 46% in the second quarter of 2022 to 46.3% a year later – net job creation remained low, with only 3,500 new jobs created over the period. High unemployment rates, particularly among young people and women, are exacerbated by these economic disruptions, making it harder for Tunisia to achieve SDG 8 (decent work and economic growth).

Climate change also deepens existing social inequalities, disproportionately affecting marginalised and low-income populations. Rural communities, which are more dependent on agriculture and have less access to diversified income sources, bear the brunt of climate impacts. Women, who often have limited access to financial resources and land ownership, face greater barriers in adapting to these changes.

The increased burden of water scarcity and food insecurity on vulnerable groups hinders progress towards SDG 10 (reduced inequalities) and underscores the need for targeted, inclusive climate adaptation measures.

Urban climate vulnerabilities in Tunisia are growing

Tunisia’s urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including extreme heat, unpredictable rainfall and coastal erosion, which pose significant risks to infrastructure and livelihoods. With 69% of the population currently residing in cities – a figure expected to rise to 80% by 2050 – rapid urbanisation is straining already limited resources and outdated infrastructure. For example, in July 2023, the capital city, Tunis, experienced record-breaking temperatures of 48.9°C, underscoring the escalating threat of heatwaves.

In addition, water scarcity remains a critical issue, as per capita water availability has plummeted to just 400 cubic metres per year, well below the United Nations’ water poverty threshold of 1,000 cubic metres. This combination of environmental stressors and socio-economic pressures amplifies disparities within urban communities, highlighting the urgent need for integrated climate resilience efforts tailored to Tunisia’s growing cities.

Strategic pathways

For climate resilience to safeguard Tunisia’s progress towards the SDGs, it is vital to prioritise comprehensive climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. This includes scaling up investments in renewable energy, enhancing water management practices and implementing climate-smart agricultural techniques.

Strengthening public-private partnerships and providing clear regulatory frameworks will be crucial for mobilising resources and accelerating the energy transition. In addition, integrating climate education and awareness into national programmes can foster a culture of environmental stewardship and community-driven resilience efforts.

One of the main challenges that Tunisia faces in funding its nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to reducing emissions and broader climate action lies in its limited access to international climate finance, coupled with budgetary constraints exacerbated by economic instability. Although substantial external funding is needed to meet the ambitious climate targets, bureaucratic hurdles and insufficient coordination often hinder effective resource mobilisation.

Enhancing collaboration with NGOs and civil society can bridge this gap, as these institutions play a critical role in advocacy, project implementation and mobilising grassroots support, making climate initiatives more inclusive and community-driven.

Conclusion

Climate change is a formidable challenge that threatens to disrupt Tunisia’s progress towards sustainable development. The economic and social impacts of extreme weather events, coupled with the slow pace of the energy transition, have highlighted the urgent need for adaptive strategies.

By embracing a holistic approach to climate policy – one that integrates renewable energy investments, sustainable agriculture, water management and community engagement – Tunisia can mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change and redirect its trajectory towards a more resilient future.

Strategic interventions are necessary not only to protect current gains but also to lay the foundation for long-term prosperity, ensuring that Tunisia can meet its SDG commitments and build a more inclusive and sustainable economy.

The work has benefited from the comments of the Technical Experts Editorial Board (TEEB) of the Arab Development Portal (ADP) and from a financial grant provided by the AFESD and ADP partnership. The contents and recommendations do not necessarily reflect the views of the AFESD (on behalf of the Arab Coordination Group) nor the ERF.