Economic Research Forum (ERF)

The impact of Covid-19 on the labour market in Sudan

1633
Even before the pandemic, Sudan was experiencing a severe crisis caused by economic and political instability – so it is difficult to disentangle the specific impacts of Covid-19. This column draws on survey evidence of how the country’s labour market has fared – and makes recommendations for policies to respond to the economic damage to households and firms.

In a nutshell

During the pandemic, many workers in Sudan have experienced change in employment status, change in main jobs and sector of employment, change in working conditions, particularly working hours, and change in monthly wages and incomes.

Many workers have suffered from temporary or permanent layoff/suspension (without pay), delay in wage payment, reduced earnings or delayed payment, and change in personal net monthly wage.

Workers have suffered from the country’s limited provision of social protection, social safety net and social insurance.

In response to the pandemic, governments around the world implemented vital protective measures, including shutting down many economic activities for a short period. This led to a global economic crisis with massive job losses and major impacts, including on labour markets.

Several international studies have examined the effects of Covid-19 on labour market. For example, the International Labour Organization (ILO) Monitor (2020) discusses the interaction between the pandemic and the world of work and estimates the labour income losses due to Covid-19.

According to the ILO Monitor (2020), working-hour losses translate into a substantial loss of income for workers around the world. The ILO Monitor estimates that global labour income declined by 10.7% during the first three quarters of 2020, compared with the corresponding period in 2019.

Several recent studies in MENA countries based on the ERF COVID-19 MENA Monitor Data (2020-2021) examine the economic impact of Covid-19 on households, firms and the region’s labour markets – including Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan and Tunisia (Nour, 2022a, b; Krafft et al, 2021a, b, c).

For Sudan, we explore the state of the labour market during the pandemic using new primary data from the ERF COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey (2021) and from the World Bank and Sudan Central Bureau of Statistic High-Frequency Survey on COVID-19 (2020).

The results from the World Bank survey show the state of employment that appears from the loss of jobs for nearly two-thirds of households during the pandemic (June to July 2020). The results show that the main reason for households’ loss of jobs, unemployment and even changing jobs was because businesses and the government closed due to coronavirus restrictions.

The results show the loss of payment for nearly a fifth of households, partial payment for nearly half of households, and loss and reduction of households’ means of livelihood or source of income since mid-March 2020 from the non-farm family business, income from properties, investments or savings, and income from family farming, livestock or fishing.

The results from the ERF COVID-19 MENA Monitor Survey data (2021) show the state of the labour market and working conditions that appears from the increase in temporary or permanent layoff/suspension of workers, reduced hours, reduced wages, delays in wage payment for workers, reduced hours and lower revenues, the closure of business, reduced working hours due to Covid-19 and limited provision of social protection (social insurance) in Sudan between April 2021 and August 2021. These results are consistent with the results in other MENA countries (Krafft, Assaad, and Marouani, 2021a, b, c).

The findings from ERF COVID-19 MENA Monitor Survey data (2021) show that workers in Sudan experienced change in employment status, mainly, change in main jobs, sector of employment and economic activities, change in working conditions, particularly, change in the number of working hours, and change in households’ monthly wage and income.

Between April 2021 and August 2021, the employment rate decreased for agriculture, fishing or mining sector, and health sector, and the personal net monthly wages decreased for agriculture, fishing or mining, manufacturing, construction or utilities, retail or wholesale, transport and storage, and other services.

Between April 2021 and August 2021, the unemployment rate (according to the standard definition) increased for manufacturing, transport and storage, accommodation and food services, and health sector. The unemployment rate (according to the broad definition) increased for agriculture, fishing or mining, manufacturing, accommodation and food services, and health sector.

Between April 2021 and August 2021, the delay in wage payment more than doubled, and the temporary layoff/suspension of workers increased from nearly a tenth in April 2021 to nearly a fifth in August 2021.

During the pandemic, Sudan suffered not only from Covid-19 but also simultaneously from a critical economic crisis caused by economic instability and political instability that pre-dated pandemic. Therefore, it is hard to separate the impacts of the pandemic and those of the prior economic crisis.

Policy recommendations to manage the economic and social impacts on the labour market include:

  • Introducing measures to support the demand for labour through the provision of new employment incentives through the provision of hiring subsidies and improving access to formal and regular jobs in all sectors.
  • Increasing government direct support by increasing monthly wages subsidies to support all workers (particularly, vulnerable workers) across all sectors.
  • Supporting social protection for households and workers across all firms and across all sectors.
  • Enhancing training in the use of digital technologies to ensure that all workers have the skills and access to digital technologies to ensure effective use of digital technologies by workers in the post-pandemic period.
  • Increasing government support to firms and business enterprises by provision of business loans, salary subsidies, and reduced taxes for firms and business enterprises in Sudan.

Further reading

ILO (2020) ‘ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work: Sixth edition, Updated estimates and analysis’.

Krafft, Caroline, Ragui Assaad and Mohamed Ali Marouani (2021a) ‘The Impact of COVID-19 on Middle Eastern and North African Labor Markets: Glimmers of Progress but Persistent Problems for Vulnerable Workers a Year into the Pandemic’, ERF Policy Brief No. 57.

Krafft, Caroline, Ragui Assaad and Mohamed Ali Marouani (2021b) ‘The Impact of COVID-19 on Middle Eastern and North African Labor Markets: Vulnerable Workers, Small Entrepreneurs, and Farmers Bear the Brunt of the Pandemic in Morocco and Tunisia’, ERF Policy Brief No. 55.

Krafft, Caroline, Ragui Assaad and Mohamed Ali Marouani (2021c) ‘The Impact of COVID-19 on Middle Eastern and North African Labor Markets: A Focus on Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises’, ERF Policy Brief No. 60.

Nour, Samia (2022a) ‘The Impact of COVID-19 on Households and Firms in the MENA Region: the case of Sudan’, Agence Française de Développement (AFD) Research Paper No 250.

Nour, Samia (2022b) ‘The Impact of COVID-19 on Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Labor Market: The Case of Sudan’, ERF Policy Brief No. 87.

OAMDI (2021) ‘OAMDI, 2021: COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey (CMMHH); Version 3.0 of the licensed data files; Sudan-CMMHH Apr-2021’.

OAMDI (2021) ‘OAMDI, 2021: COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey (CMMHH); Version 3.0 of the licensed data files; Sudan-CMMHH August-2021’.

World Bank and Sudan Central Bureau of Statistic (2020) ‘Sudan High Frequency Survey on COVID-19 (2020)’.

Tags: , , , ,

Most read

Sanctions and the shrinking size of Iran’s middle class

International sanctions imposed on Iran from 2012 have reduced the size of the country’s middle class, according to new research summarised in this column. The findings highlight the profound social consequences of economic pressure, not least given the crucial role of that segment of society for national innovation, growth and stability. The study underscores the need for policies to safeguard the civilian population in countries targeted by sanctions.

Artificial intelligence and the renewable energy transition in MENA

Artificial intelligence has the potential to bridge the gap between abundant natural resources and the pressing need for reliable, sustainable power in the Middle East and North Africa. This column outlines the constraints and proposes policies that can address the challenges of variability of renewable resources and stress on power grids, and support the transformation of ‘sunlight’ to ‘smart power’.

Green jobs for MENA in the age of AI: crafting a sustainable labour market

Arab economies face a dual transformation: the decarbonisation imperative driven by climate change; and the rapid digitalisation brought by artificial intelligence. This column argues that by strategically managing the green-AI nexus, policy-makers in the region can position their countries not merely as followers adapting to global mandates but as leaders in sustainable innovation.

Egypt’s forgotten democratisation: a challenge to modern myths about MENA

A widely held narrative asserts that countries in the Middle East are inevitably authoritarian. This column reports new research that tracks Egyptian parliamentarians since 1824 to reveal that the region’s struggle with democracy is not in fact about cultural incompatibility: it’s about colonialism disrupting home-grown democratic movements and elite conflicts being resolved through disenfranchisement rather than power-sharing.

MENA integration into global value chains and sustainable development

Despite the geopolitical advantages, abundant natural resources and young populations of many countries in the Middle East and North Africa, they remain on the periphery of global value chains, the international networks of production and service activities that now dominate the world economy. This column explains the positive impact of integration into GVCs on exports and employment; its role in technology transfer and capacity upgrading; and the structural barriers that constrain the region’s involvement. Greater GVC participation can help to deliver structural transformation and sustainable development.

Arab youth and the future of work

The Arab region’s labour markets are undergoing a triple transformation: demographic, digital and green. As this column explains, whether these forces evolve into engines of opportunity or drivers of exclusion for young people will hinge on how swiftly and coherently policy-makers can align education, technology and employment systems to foster adaptive skills, inclusive institutions and innovation-led pathways to decent work.

Wrong finance in a broken multilateral system: red flags from COP30-Belém

With the latest global summit on climate action recently wrapped up, ambitious COP pledges and initiatives continue to miss delivery due to inadequate commitments, weak operationalisation and unclear reporting systems. As this column reports, flows of climate finance remain skewed: loans over grants; climate mitigation more than climate adaptation; and weak accountability across mechanisms. Without grant-based finance, debt relief, climate-adjusted lending and predictable multilateral flows, implementation of promises will fail.

Why political connections are driving business confidence in MENA

This column reports the findings of a new study of how the political ties of firms in the Middle East and North Africa boost business confidence. The research suggests that this optimism is primarily driven by networked access to credit and lobbying, underscoring the need for greater transparency and institutional reform in corporate governance.

Digitalising governance in MENA: opportunities for social justice

Can digital governance promote social justice in MENA – or does it risk deepening inequality and exclusion? This column examines the evolution of digital governance in three sub-regions – Egypt, Jordan and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council – highlighting how data practices, transparency mechanisms and citizen trust shape the social outcomes of technological reform.